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The Coronavirus thread

Confluence said:
The flu stats are extrapolated based on historic experience and seasonal variation.

The Covid numbers are based on a small subset where tests are given to those likely to have the virus/flu in Italy. Of course the death rate will be higher because of the smaller denominator.

Above you took Indy to task on stats, then decided to use the ones you liked?

All the stats now will need revision later to account for sampling biases.

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I think South Korea is testing the most per capital by far and their mortality rate is .9.
 
Troglodyte said:
I think South Korea is testing the most per capital by far and their mortality rate is .9.
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Yes...so far.
What happens when the infectious disease statistical specialists and epidemiologists get to look back? Since they cannot have tested all with Coronavirus, it is likely that the mortality rate declines with the removal of testing bias, right?

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Confluence said:
The flu stats are extrapolated based on historic experience and seasonal variation.

The Covid numbers are based on a small subset where tests are given to those likely to have the virus/flu in Italy. Of course the death rate will be higher because of the smaller denominator.

Above you took Indy to task on stats, then decided to use the ones you liked?

All the stats now will need revision later to account for sampling biases.

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Click to expand...

You are totally missing the point. You can't in good conscience say this is better or worse than anything that has been around for a long time, yet. Until we have more data and testing we have to go on the basis of what we do see and we must assume the worst, if not we risk actually having it happen. We will never truly know if we overreacted we sure as hell will know if we did not.
 
Confluence said:
Yes...so far.
What happens when the infectious disease statistical specialists and epidemiologists get to look back? Since they cannot have tested all with Coronavirus, it is likely that the mortality rate declines with the removal of testing bias, right?

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Click to expand...

Lets hope so. But in the meantime do you gamble with peoples lives?
 
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Confluence said:
Yes...so far.
What happens when the infectious disease statistical specialists and epidemiologists get to look back? Since they cannot have tested all with Coronavirus, it is likely that the mortality rate declines with the removal of testing bias, right?

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Click to expand...

Right. It’s easy to count how many died, figuring out how many have the virus is much more difficult. That official in Ohio seemed to suggest the US currently has 3.3 million cases.
 
IndySteel said:
BTW, while the Indiana government is clutching their pearls and closing everything down in hysterical panic, the death toll from the virus here is...wait for it... ZERO!
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Deuteronomy 32:30: "How should one chase a thousand, and two put ten thousand to flight, except their Rock had sold them, and the Lord had shut them up?"

This nation isn't made of indomitable spiritual stock anymore. Just like with the hurricane in Houston, the Joel Osteen pitch ain't gonna get the job done. This generation has never had to "make do." It's an astonishment to watch the hysteria.

By contrast, consider what Winston Churchill said when the Germans were bombing Pearl Harbor:

“We have not journeyed across the centuries, across the oceans, across the mountains, across the prairies, because we are made of sugar candy.”

That's how one Corona death could chase a thousand, and two put ten thousand to flight. We're seeing this Biblical idea and fulfillment right before our very eyes. That's what we get as a collective nation for rejecting the Lord Jesus Christ or thinking we can merely tack him on to the end of our week for 1 hour.
 
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Sarge said:
She has no way of knowing that. And that is part of the problem. Speculation like that is how the nation ends up in an unnecessary panic.
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What she said was very dangerous:

"I am not saying there are absolutely for certain 100,000 people, I'm saying I'm guesstimating," the director, Dr. Amy Acton, said at a news conference.

"We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said then. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."

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Pure utter conjecture.
 
Sarge said:
She has no way of knowing that. And that is part of the problem. Speculation like that is how the nation ends up in an unnecessary panic.
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Throwing out numbers like that is so ******* ignorant and disgusting. Many have caught a really frightening virus alright, and it's names are mass hysteria, politicization & fear-mongering. Again:



And look at my signature from Nietzsche. This country is starting to live it and the Chinese are sitting back laughing.
 
Sarge said:
She has no way of knowing that. And that is part of the problem. Speculation like that is how the nation ends up in an unnecessary panic.
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She did base it on a CDC estimate based on community spread percentages, so she didn’t just pull it out of her ***. I would like to hear Fauci and any others officials opinion as to whether they agree with her.

It’s a fine line between getting people to take preventative steps seriously and causing panic. Fauci shared some scary numbers himself yesterday.
 
Troglodyte said:
She did base it on a CDC estimate based on community spread percentages, so she didn’t just pull it out of her ***. I would like to hear Fauci and any others officials opinion as to whether they agree with her.

It’s a fine line between getting people to take preventative steps seriously and causing panic. Fauci shared some scary numbers himself yesterday.
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It is still bullshit because it isn't based in fact. She is "guesstimating," her words not mine. I understand she is a doctor, but deal in what you KNOW. Don't guess and make a bad situation worse.
 
IndySteel said:
There's a local press conference at 2:30 today.
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STOP posting stupid crap garbage giant pictures!

They suck and no one cares!




Trump's latest coronavirus update:

"No one knew, no one told me; no one predicted it could happen..."
 
So let me show you all how easy things can be made to look scary

The CDC has tested for and confirmed 222,000 flu cases in the past six months... from September to last week......now there are no estimated cases in that, just pure confirmed cases.... much like coronavirus now....

Now JUST in January and February there were 4800 flu deaths so basically we are gonna ignore 4 months of deaths here and bias these numbers as low as we possibly can... just to prove a point

So that would be a death rate of 2.16%... for the flu... if you add the deaths from the other months you are hitting close to double digits ... quite close to some of the scarier coronavirus numbers

But then they take the estimated unreported numbers in concideration and it drops to .1 or .2%...
 
Spike said:
STOP posting stupid crap garbage giant pictures!

They suck and no one cares!




Trump's latest coronavirus update:

"No one knew, no one told me; no one predicted it could happen..."
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I like them.

P.S. no one has died in Indiana yet.
 
TRUMP SPEAKS!



Trump urges Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people

“If everyone makes this change, or these critical changes and sacrifices now, we will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus,” Trump said in the White House briefing room. “We’re going to have a big celebration all together.”

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...ns-to-avoid-gatherings-of-more-than-10-people

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CELEBRATE!


lololol


When asked how long this would go on, Trump said “July or August” or maybe longer.
 
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Driving around today,it was nice to see how light the traffic is. Would it be an awful suggestion that while during this crisis,they amp up all the maintenance on the roads that usually gridlock our roads in the summertime.
 
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