A more interesting question is not whether Tomlin is #6 out of a group of 32 but rather whether can we really properly evaluate anything that only has 32 people?
What level of coaching do we really see in the NFL?
We seem to assume that these 32 are the "best of the best" and the cream rises to the top (through the ranks of high schools and colleges), but I'm not sure there's a lot of evidence to support that. The criteria of hiring seems too random to me.
I can't even accurately say that if a defensive coach coaches a team to a top-5 defense, does that make him a top-5 defensive coach? The players are completely independent in the analysis? Really?
Yet consistently, when head coaches in the NFL are hired just from the subset of assistant coaches around the league, it appears having a "unit" that is top-5 is almost a prerequisite. For example, I like Dan Quinn. He is good friends with my neighbor. I shook his hand a few times in passing and at a game he got us tickets for once.
But is he a top-32 head coach? I don't know. He holds that position now, in a snap shot in time, but that might not mean the same thing. He got hired because he was defensive coordinator of a top-5 defense consistently over the past few seasons. But was that his doing or his players? And if it's even 50% on the players, shouldn't that mean owners should expand their search to include top-15 defensive and offensive coordinators?
What I see is a very inexact science when vetting and selected head coaches in the NFL. The criteria used to come up with candidates does not appear to be based on any solid mathematical (historical) data. Owners often use other criteria beyond the field (name recognition, headline appeal, outside business plus/minuses). If anything the process seems very shotgun approach to me.
And that's just hiring outside the good-ole-boys club of ex-head coaches that seem to regurgitate over and over and over again.
And using just wins/losses to determine the definition of a good or bad coach seems short-sighted as well.
I mean a list of job qualifications a head coach has to have is probably 20+ items. Shouldn't we be rating all those criteria? Shouldn't the goal be to get the best candidate in THOSE criteria and trust that if you put a good coach and get him good talent, the wins are an automatic result?
That seems much more scientifically plausible that to hire coaches that coach good players and assume they will coach bad players to the same success.