Checking in on Nate Silver and Trump is still about a -6 point underdog to win the election (using football reference since that's really why we are here).
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
The battleground states are now all east coast: Ohio, PA, Florida and North Carolina. And I have contended from the very beginning this is closer than the poles indicate. Tibs and the pro-Democrat side can't deny that lack of energy from that campaign and how this entire election is now about Trump: either for or against.
It's not a coin flip, but this isn't Clinton's no matter what either. And I still contend Trump is actually the best candidate to come out of the primaries. Kasich would be doing well (I have no doubt) but I think Cruz, Bush or Rubio would actually be doing worse. Could you imagine how boring an election Clinton - Bush would be right now..... God, no one would be talking about the election at all.
This is good for the country. This is good for a generation of people that are fed up with Washington. I'm still strongly voting Trump and I'm doing so for very smart reasons. I think Glenn Reynolds hit the nail right on the head: If you want "Checks and Balances" to return to our political system you HAVE to vote Trump. Because our Republic IS strong enough to prevent him from ruining the world. And the only way it will happen it to re-establish the founding fathers checks and balance system.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...-democrat-bias-trump-glenn-reynolds/89929744/
What has happened under Clinton - Bush - Obama has been a travesty of Constitutional destruction, of the balances of government playing games with each other for their own ends.
If there is one thing that WILL happen with a Trump presidency is that people will start to pay attention again to what the executive branch of government can and can't do. And what responsibility Congress has to start manning up to and behaving like. It's a precedence that could re-establish everything I love about our political system and bring millions of people back into the political discussion.
That's my hope anyway. And I don't think I'm far off in my analysis.