I think it all hinges on Pickett and Matt Canada. I am one who is wary of Pickett's "improvement" the second half of the season. Sure, he limited TO's and even had two game winning drives but the competition for six of those 8 game was bottom tier and I would have expected more and better from him against those teams. I know Matt Canada is a factor here, so it makes it hard to really evaluate where Canada ends and Pickett begins.
That said, there is no reason for the same mediocrity we saw last year. The OL has been upgraded. Seriously upgraded. New offensive weapons have been added. The defense has been upgraded, even if only by the fact that Spillane and Bush will not be patrolling the middle at all, but there are new faces that should improve the defense, especially from the rookie class.
If Pickett can make a jump forward from last year, I think this team is good enough to win 11 or 12 games. If they trot out the same bullshit from last year, I can see another 9-8 or 8-9 season. The schedule is favorable for success. There are no excuses this year.