As completion percentages close in on .700 and above. Could you see a team possibly saying screw it. I will throw in the token run on first or second and try to get 3 yards and the I'm using all four no matter where we are on the field so long as it isn't fourth and I'm forced to punt. Like if you have a real good Pass block line and one of these Q's. If you are around 8 yards per attempt and 70 percent completion, the math works pretty good. Not my football, but I could honestly see that being the evolution. Like even now teams are routinely making third and more than ten.
Could you see this happening?
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a team in Arkansas I think. I think they also always onside kicks
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He went to a low-level college and was out after two seasons. Just too many hurdles to overcome to fully implement his philosophy.
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You are already seeing teams go for the first on fourth downs on their own side of the field where 15 or 20 years ago it would have been unheard of. Didn't the ravens just do it to us around their own 35-yard line or so?
There was also a coach that once said “if you score more than your opponent you win the game”
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If you get 15 yards on the first carry and zero yards the next 4 carries you have averaged 3 yards/carry and turn the ball over on downs right after.
Greg easterbrook used to advocate for high end aggressive probabilities over conservative playcalling… for instance, at least back when he was talking about it, teams that punted on 4th and 1 from over the 50 had a really high rate of losing…
The problem with playing aggressively though is tgat every time it doesn’t work you get crucified in the moronic press because they don’t understand how it works
So lets say you decide to go for it on every 4th and 3 or less over the 40 yard line except in obvious cases where the points from a field goal gets you a win or loss late in the 4th.. you will give us a few field goals, but theoretically the points from the tds you score would supersede that… just like on third and one if you rush up tge middle and if you get stuffed do it again on 4th and 1 you most likely convert way more than you don’t…
I’m sure eventually someone will normalize some of that… old school coaching is designed to protect their own jobs, not maximize wins
The problem with playing aggressively though is tgat every time it doesn’t work you get crucified in the moronic press because they don’t understand how it works
So lets say you decide to go for it on every 4th and 3 or less over the 40 yard line except in obvious cases where the points from a field goal gets you a win or loss late in the 4th.. you will give us a few field goals, but theoretically the points from the tds you score would supersede that… just like on third and one if you rush up tge middle and if you get stuffed do it again on 4th and 1 you most likely convert way more than you don’t…
I’m sure eventually someone will normalize some of that… old school coaching is designed to protect their own jobs, not maximize wins
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