Deflate-gate......God I hate the Pats!!!!

[Lunar]

I am with Stephan A Smith on this: I don't want to talk about this nonsense a minute longer. If I see/hear anyone still focused on this issue that doesn't deserve so much attention, I will turn the channel, stop reading, etc. They have overblown this on a colossal level. I will take no part in it. F off. t's not deserving of so much attention.

So this will be your last post in this thread.

 

[wig]

Yes. We should be focused on our former defensive coordinator instead.

You know. The guy who nailed POP's wife daily for 8 years.

 

[ark steel]

Yes. We should be focused on our former defensive coordinator instead.

You know. The guy who nailed POP's wife daily for 8 years.

Someone went apeshit because Supe made a similar comment about Timmons pounding his sister.

 

[Troglodyte]

I don't think Belichek knew. Belichek is a lot of things but stupid isn't one of them. A deflated football is a fairly easy thing to detect, especially by the people who inspect them. I don't think Belichek would approve of this, not because it was cheating, but because of the foreseeable risk.

I think this was Brady or at Brady's discretion and Belichek - who has already lost $500k and stands to lose a a lot more now is ******* pissed off at his golden goose.

 

[Gareth]

Someone went apeshit because Supe made a similar comment about Timmons pounding his sister.

Would it be our fault if all the women in his life were ******?

 

[POP]

So this will be your last post in this thread.

Pretty much. Have little interest for such a non story; would rather move on to things that actually matter, like our draft, team moves, the actual Super Bowl (and not all this overblown nonsense about balls with 2 lbs too little air pressure). I laugh at those who get bamboozled in media hype stories like this one.

 

[awboatguy]

Pretty much. Have little interest for such a non story; would rather move on to things that actually matter, like our draft, team moves, the actual Super Bowl (and not all this overblown nonsense about balls with 2 lbs too little air pressure). I laugh at those who get bamboozled in media hype stories like this one.

It's not media hype. They took a measure to garner an advantage over an adversary. By the RULES it's cheating. Whether they needed it or not, wrong is wrong and they should suffer a timely punishment. Additionally, this organization is a repeat offender. So, it should be a harsh hand brought down upon them. Your reaction is suspect and off base as a true fan. Smh!

 

[black and gold apex]

Brady bringing up this is not ISIS no one dying shows his disregard for any type of rules. God-del allows the poster child of the East to do as he pleases as we watched two different times his language on the tube now this ball issue. For the league to mention they had information before the games shows IT IS an issue but now the league has a blind eye to do anything about it. They have no problem on a excess celebration but no show on action of Bray and the Pats.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The plot thickens.

http://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/2015/01/23/deflated-patriots-statistically-impossible-fumble-record/

Deflated: the Statistically Impossible Patriots Fumble Record

by
J. CHRISTIAN ADAMS
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January 23, 2015 - 5:53 am
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Patriots partisans are deflating the deflation controversy by arguing that their impermissible deflation of the footballs wasn’t what allowed them to beat an overmatched Colts team. Perhaps. But a new statistical analysis reveals that if it weren’t for deflation of the footballs, the Patriots might not have even been playing a series of home playoff games as the top seed. Careful analytics reveal that suddenly in 2007, a strange and statistically impossible phenomena began to occur at Patriots games.

Sharp Football Analysis has a statistical analysis that backs up the conclusions of football legends Fran Tarkenton and Jerome Bettis: the Patriots’ success over the last decade is due in some (or large) part to cheating. This is bad news for the NFL and for fans of every team that has been on the losing end of Patriot schemes, particularly the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were denied multiple trips to the Super Bowl by the Patriots in AFC Championship games during the height of the first Patriot videotape cheating scandal.


Sharp Football Analysis analysis looked at the rate of fumbles by the Patriots offense over the last decade. The analysis had a number of shocking conclusions. First, the Patriots fumble only at a rate of once every 187 offensive snaps. As Sharp’s puts it, this is literally off the charts. It is a statistical outlier right from a statistics textbook.

a

Sharp Football Analysis:

One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

The odds of such a statistical distribution were calculated at one in 16,233. That’s a comma, not a decimal. Sixteen thousand two hundred and thirty three to one.

Patriots partisans might crow — well, what good does deflating a football do? Simple. It creates angles on a football that didn’t exist when playing by the rules and allows a runner, passer, center, and, most importantly, a quarterback to better grip the ball. With the avoidance of turnovers being so central to winning football, a deflated football helps you win.

But it gets worse for Brady and the Patriots. Sharp Football Analysis was able to trace the emergence of this phenomena to a bright-line date: 2007. Starting in 2007, the Patriots suddenly began to hold onto the football at a statistical rate likely to occur 1 time in 16,233. A rational person might conclude this is the moment when someone on the Patriots cooked up the scheme to illegally deflate the ball:

As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.

To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:

When you consider that the Patriots play in cold, messy weather much of the season, having an advantage that visiting teams do not have creates even further separation from the rest of the NFL on game day in New England. The Pats have performed like a domed team in the worst of conditions.

sSharp Football Analysis answers the inevitable Patriots partisans:

Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. … But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

Unlike Barry Bonds and other baseball cheaters, Brady and Bill Belichick are certain to wind up in the Hall of Fame someday. But they’ll never be able to escape from the data that will follow them there.

 

[cpollock]

After reading that article and another one about the "deflated balls" it also is funny that the decrease number of fumbles coincides to the year that the teams were allowed to supply their own balls. This is because of a petition circulated in 2006 by a number of NFL quarterbacks, chief among them Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

definitely the plot thickens ...

 

[nooneuno]

I am with Stephan A Smith on this: I don't want to talk about this nonsense a minute longer. If I see/hear anyone still focused on this issue that doesn't deserve so much attention, I will turn the channel, stop reading, etc. They have overblown this on a colossal level. I will take no part in it. F off. t's not deserving of so much attention.

The same Stephan A Smith who said if the Pats are found guilty Bellicheck should be suspended for a year like Payton?

 

[clinton]

Goodell will punish them, but only after the SB. No way will he risk that much revenue. A limp wristed fine and a 1 game preseason game ban for brady..or something like that.

 

[Tim Steelersfan]

The plot thickens.

http://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/2015/01/23/deflated-patriots-statistically-impossible-fumble-record/

This is profound. For any of you who have read Spygate The Untold Story (I recommend it), they analyze how the *Patriots are statistical outliers in so many categories. Too many. It's ridiculous. Like, for instance, how the *Patriots consistently beat Vegas, and no team, not on the planet, has ever done that. It's beyond the realm of belief.

This fumbling issue is what the NFL should latch onto. It's how they caught Madoff. They realized, statistically, the man could not possibly be making that much money and investigated it. It led to his fraud being exposed.

As it should here.

 

[bermudasteel]

The NFL has conclusive evidence that the under-inflated footballs used by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game were altered by people, eliminating some of the theories presented by those giving the Pats the benefit of the doubt, according to a report.


Monday Morning Quarterback’s Peter King reports that all 12 of the Patriots’ and all 12 of the Colts’ footballs left the officials’ locker room before the game at the proper level of inflation. He says when the balls were re-checked by officials at halftime, 11 OR 12 of the Patriots’ balls were under-inflated by two pounds per square inch, while the Colts’ balls remained the same level of pressure. The Patriots had to re-inflate their balls to normal levels for the second half, and when the balls were checked at the end of the game, all 24 were of proper inflation.

95% of the country believes the **'s are lying. POP, is in the small majority that believes this is a non-story...

The equipment manager will be the sacrificial lamb or the ball boy....now im curious as to what back alley conversations (compensation granted to be the fall-guy) will be had with either when the hatchet drops because if im either, as soon as i get lynched by this organization, im contacting Stone Phillips, Oprah, CNN to give an interview for a donation of 300K to spill the beans and the chili on this franchise about who ordered me to do what and how long ive done it for. **** me over, and ****** you right back with a pay out comin.

The person within that organization that knows the degree of cheating could literally make millions by releasing a book describing the culture of cheating within that franchise

Agreed. Wonder how long it will take for "that book" to get released???

This is profound. For any of you who have read Spygate The Untold Story (I recommend it), they analyze how the *Patriots are statistical outliers in so many categories. Too many. It's ridiculous. Like, for instance, how the *Patriots consistently beat Vegas, and no team, not on the planet, has ever done that. It's beyond the realm of belief.

This fumbling issue is what the NFL should latch onto. It's how they caught Madoff. They realized, statistically, the man could not possibly be making that much money and investigated it. It led to his fraud being exposed.

As it should here.

Our society has some blood thirsty and money hungry lawyers - not that that is a bad thing - now is the time to build your case and bring this organization to its knees. Vis should be all over this!!!!

 

[Yinzerlyn]

Those of you saying this is a non-story.....would you feel the same if it were us on the other end of Deflate gate and not the Colts?

 

[Troglodyte]

If this has been going on for decades and is as much about fumbling as it is Brady then I take back what I said and I do think Belichek knew.

I don't understand how it took the NFL this long to catch it?

 

[Yinzerlyn]

If this has been going on for decades and is as much about fumbling as it is Brady then I take back what I said and I do think Belichek knew.

I don't understand how it took the NFL this long to catch it?

They didn't WANT to.

 

[deljzc]

Being a science guy, I kind of liked this article on PFT:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/23/another-theory-for-deflating-footballs/

When the league specifies a pressure without ALSO specifying "at a certain temperature", it opens the whole gamut of possible ways to follow the rules technically.

Being a devil's advocate here, the rules say the balls turned over to the referees for inspection 2 hours and 15 minutes before the game have to be between 12.5 psi and 13.5 psi pressure. After that it's kind of specific that you can't ALTER the balls. In fact the team doesn't even see the balls again until right before kickoff. So that also kind of means a team can't even alter the balls to MAINTAIN air pressure as the temperature drops, right?

So what if the equipment managers, knowing that Brady likes an underinflated ball in bad weather, just filled the balls up with HOT AIR, adjusted the pressure to 12.5 (or close to it) and handed the balls over for inspection? Per scientific law it would only take about a 80-90 degree drop in air temperature to give Brady a nice effect of a deflated ball. And it's not impossible to inflate balls with air at 140 or 150 F degrees (a traditional sauna is about 160+ degrees).


Technically speaking, that's not against any written rule. They did turn over 12 balls for inspection that were the approved 12.5 to 13.5 psi pressure. They did not alter the balls during the game. They basically just let science take it's course and see if/when the referees would deem any balls unsuitable for play (which again is how the rules are written).

 

[slashsteel]

both locker rooms I am sure had similar temperatures. The Colts balls met reg, the Patriots did not.

theory's are nice, but when something stinks, it usually is because someone made it stink.

Besides this was reported before to the NFL, so it wasn't just one occurrence.

 

[deljzc]

both locker rooms I am sure had similar temperatures. The Colts balls met reg, the Patriots did not.

theory's are nice, but when something stinks, it usually is because someone made it stink.

Besides this was reported before to the NFL, so it wasn't just one occurrence.

I'm saying it might not be against the rules to go into a sauna, use the 160 degree air to inflate the footballs and then give them over the referees for inspection. Is it nefarious? Sure. Is it interpreting the rules a bit sketchy? Absolutely.

But there is nothing in the rule book that says a team has to MAINTAIN a pressure of 12.5 to 13.5 psi during temperature changes. In fact it says you CAN'T maintain pressure because once inspected, you can't touch them in any way after that.

 

[IlliniSteel]

So in response to the fumbling statistics, I just did a breakdown of fumbles for each team from 2007 on. This is just total fumbles. pats** have a total of 121 as do the Falcons. Then comes Indy and NO with 142-144. Most teams (21) are between 161 and 200 fumbles during that time. The most are Wash with 226 and Oak with 225, then Buff 203 Det 204 and AZ with 206. So they are the lowest. The stat in the article is fumbles per possessions and is from 2010 on. So they are the lowest, not sure if this proves anything but with all the other statistical anomalies, one has to wonder.

 

[slashsteel]

I'm saying it might not be against the rules to go into a sauna, use the 160 degree air to inflate the footballs and then give them over the referees for inspection. Is it nefarious? Sure. Is it interpreting the rules a bit sketchy? Absolutely.

But there is nothing in the rule book that says a team has to MAINTAIN a pressure of 12.5 to 13.5 psi during temperature changes. In fact it says you CAN'T maintain pressure because once inspected, you can't touch them in any way after that.

but there is something in the rule book about being under regs, and 11 of the 12 exactly 2 pound under.

however you slice it

cheating

 

[awboatguy]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-england-patriots-scandals-from-spies-to-snowplows/

This is a good summary article of how the Patriots routinely find a way around the rules.

 

[deljzc]

but there is something in the rule book about being under regs, and 11 of the 12 exactly 2 pound under.

however you slice it

cheating

But saying the ball needs to be 12.5 psi means NOTHING without also specifying temperature. They are directly related to each other.

The balls the Patriots played with ARE 12.5 psi. When the air inside the ball is 150 degree F. After that the rules say nothing.

If you think the balls that were used in the Ice Bowl or the Giants/Green Bay game a few years back, when the temperature was below 0 degrees, were at 12.5 psi, you are ignoring science. Any ball that was inflated in that game even at MAX 13.5 psi in a 70-72 degree room would have lost 1.5 to 2 pounds of pressure because of the air temperature.

It's even a RULE you can't warm up the footballs (which would maintain pressure btw).

All I'm saying is, scientifically, the rule isn't as specific as you guys think. It is just a "snap shot it time" 2 hours and 15 minutes before the game to make sure the balls would likely be within acceptable tolerance during the game. The fact the league allows quarterbacks and teams to prepare balls, work them in, change the texture, soak them, waterlog them, sand them or whatever shows the "rules" governing the ball were never meant to be black/white but obviously a gray to allow individual quarterbacks to doctor the ball within reason to their tastes.

And again, making a rule that says 2 hours and 15 minutes before the game the ball has to be measured at 12.5 to 13.5 is not a guarantee or a rule that says the ball has to be MAINTAINED at 12.5 to 13.5 psi throughout the game. All it says is once the game balls are approved at that time, no one is to alter the pressure or heat them up or apply a foreign substance, etc.

 

[slashsteel]

But saying the ball needs to be 12.5 psi means NOTHING without also specifying temperature. They are directly related to each other.

The balls the Patriots played with ARE 12.5 psi. When the air inside the ball is 150 degree F. After that the rules say nothing.

If you think the balls that were used in the Ice Bowl or the Giants/Green Bay game a few years back, when the temperature was below 0 degrees, were at 12.5 psi, you are ignoring science. Any ball that was inflated in that game even at MAX 13.5 psi in a 70-72 degree room would have lost 1.5 to 2 pounds of pressure because of the air temperature.

It's even a RULE you can't warm up the footballs (which would maintain pressure btw).

All I'm saying is, scientifically, the rule isn't as specific as you guys think. It is just a "snap shot it time" 2 hours and 15 minutes before the game to make sure the balls would likely be within acceptable tolerance during the game. The fact the league allows quarterbacks and teams to prepare balls, work them in, change the texture, soak them, waterlog them, sand them or whatever shows the "rules" governing the ball were never meant to be black/white but obviously a gray to allow individual quarterbacks to doctor the ball within reason to their tastes.

And again, making a rule that says 2 hours and 15 minutes before the game the ball has to be measured at 12.5 to 13.5 is not a guarantee or a rule that says the ball has to be MAINTAINED at 12.5 to 13.5 psi throughout the game. All it says is once the game balls are approved at that time, no one is to alter the pressure or heat them up or apply a foreign substance, etc.

i get the scientific approach

but one on one with their history of cheating are you believing that over the probability that they did in fact cheat?