"Najee Harris ain't it". NAJEE 3.0 It's time to go, yo....

[topseed]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens here.

I don't think he'll get as many touches as he had with us.

So to have a bigger season, he'll have to be a lot more efficient. And he's been extremely consistent in his career in YPC / success% despite improvements in OL, changes in OCs, etc.

I'd say that he might end up being more efficient, but I don't think he's going to start ripping off the huge runs that really drive up YPC. He's just not fast enough and / or doesn't have the vision to find the holes.

But I think he'll be a valuable piece for the Chargers. In part because they don't need him to be the main piece of the offense like we did. It's a better fit for him there IMO.

All of this assumes he'll remain healthy. And the probability of that for RBs tends to decline sharply after the first 4-5 years. But Najee's been insanely durable. Hopefully that holds for him. He's an easy guy to root for. Seems like a good human.

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

 

[stillwright]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens here.

I don't think he'll get as many touches as he had with us.

So to have a bigger season, he'll have to be a lot more efficient. And he's been extremely consistent in his career in YPC / success% despite improvements in OL, changes in OCs, etc.

I'd say that he might end up being more efficient, but I don't think he's going to start ripping off the huge runs that really drive up YPC. He's just not fast enough and / or doesn't have the vision to find the holes.

But I think he'll be a valuable piece for the Chargers. In part because they don't need him to be the main piece of the offense like we did. It's a better fit for him there IMO.

All of this assumes he'll remain healthy. And the probability of that for RBs tends to decline sharply after the first 4-5 years. But Najee's been insanely durable. Hopefully that holds for him. He's an easy guy to root for. Seems like a good human.

You don't bring in a guy to be your "main piece" of the offense and not have the system and scheme set up for them to succeed. Tomlin and our GM's failed miserably.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

Last year Dobbins had 195 carries and Edwards had 101 carries. 296 for the top 2 guys. They had a total of 463 rushing plays all season.

For us, Najee had 263 carries and Warren had 120. 383 for the top 2 guys. We had a total of 533 rushing plays all season (15% more than they did).

We just run a lot more than most other teams.

Interestingly, both teams had the same YPC (4.1).

If they have approximately the same number of rushes next year as they did last year, then Najee's carries will probably go down. Even if he's more of a "bell cow" than he was with us.

I agree with you that they currently have only replacement level guys behind him. So my guess is that they pick up a cheap vet or draft a RB in this deep class to split carries with him.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

You don't bring in a guy to be your "main piece" of the offense and not have the system and scheme set up for them to succeed. Tomlin and our GM's failed miserably.

I rarely complain about draft in real time, but I didn't like that draft at all.

I don't like RBs in the 1st, but I guess there was an argument that Najee could have been seen to be in the discussion for BPA after all the OTs were gone.

But the pick I really hated was Freiermuth over Humphrey. It's the only draft pick I every really, really hated / complained about when it happened. I really didn't like taking the luxury pick of a TE when we desperately needed a C. Especially since it made it so we got stuck with Green later.

I will always wonder if that was part of the deal for Ben to take a paycut. We'll get you some new toys if you come back at a cheaper rate. Probably conspiracy stuff...and 100% speculation...but that's what I think.

Thankfully, it does look like we've fixed the C position now. And PF is at least OK...particularly against the Bengals, which seems to be the only team we'll make him a big part of the game plan.

 

[insaniti]

Let us know who's next since anybody can do it...

FYI Bijan Robinson has not done it in two years that he's been in the league. Neither has Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley or the king - Derrick Henry...

I think I need to turn my "this is sarcasm" lights on brighter.

 

[topseed]

Last year Dobbins had 195 carries and Edwards had 101 carries. 296 for the top 2 guys. They had a total of 463 rushing plays all season.

For us, Najee had 263 carries and Warren had 120. 383 for the top 2 guys. We had a total of 533 rushing plays all season (15% more than they did).

We just run a lot more than most other teams.

Interestingly, both teams had the same YPC (4.1).

If they have approximately the same number of rushes next year as they did last year, then Najee's carries will probably go down. Even if he's more of a "bell cow" than he was with us.

I agree with you that they currently have only replacement level guys behind him. So my guess is that they pick up a cheap vet or draft a RB in this deep class to split carries with him.

Those are a lot of stats which don't really help to prove your point. Dobbins and Edwards missed a combined 10 games last season. Najee played all 17, and Warren missed only 2. Thus, in actuality, the Chargers top two backs averaged more carries per game, 24.7 to 23.9. Harris averaged about a half a carry more per game than Dobbins did, 15.47 to 15. Wow, HUGE difference there.

Interestingly, their #1 guy averaged 4.6 YPC, while the Steelers' #1 guy averaged 4.0.

Barring injury, Najee's carries are not going to go down in 2025. There is no #2 guy there in LA to challenge him. Maybe Vidal's 43 rushes for 155 yards for a 3.6 YPC last year impressed you. Not me.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Those are a lot of stats which don't really help to prove your point. Dobbins and Edwards missed a combined 10 games last season. Najee played all 17, and Warren missed only 2. Thus, in actuality, the Chargers top two backs averaged more carries per game, 24.7 to 23.9. Harris averaged about a half a carry more per game than Dobbins did, 15.47 to 15. Wow, HUGE difference there.

Interestingly, their #1 guy averaged 4.6 YPC, while the Steelers' #1 guy averaged 4.0.

Barring injury, Najee's carries are not going to go down in 2025. There is no #2 guy there in LA to challenge him. Maybe Vidal's 43 rushes for 155 yards for a 3.6 YPC last year impressed you. Not me.

Not sure if you saw it, we ran 15% more running plays than they did.

I don't think that moving away from A Smith as an OC == going to a less run heavy offense should come as a surprise.

Ultimately we'll see.

I can't see any world were he gets as many touches as we gave him as a rookie.

 

[insaniti]

Not sure if you saw it, we ran 15% more running plays than they did.

I don't think that moving away from A Smith as an OC == going to a less run heavy offense should come as a surprise.

Ultimately we'll see.

I can't see any world were he gets as many touches as we gave him as a rookie.

Smooth little edit you did there...but I digress. He pointed out that their top two backs missed significant amount of time. So you can't go by total attempts, but you CAN compare attempts PER GAME.

So if JK missed 7 games, but averaged 15 carries per game, and Najee missed 0 games, and averaged 15.5 carries per game...over a 17 game span, the difference in the number of carries between JK (Chargers RB1 last year) and Najee is 8 carries. So why wouldn't Najee get the same number of touches in his new offense as he did here? Assuming he does what he's done the last four years, stay healthy.

We'll take it a step further. Gus averaged 9.2 carries per game, and he missed 6 games. Warren averaged 8 carries per game, and he missed two games. So they ran their RB2 more than we did.

Lets go down the line some more, and here's where we are going to get our 15% more running plays. Fields averaged 6.2 carries per game, including games he didn't start. Wilson averaged 3.9 carries, for a total of 10.1 carries per game from our QB's. Herbert averaged 4 carries per game.

Why did we run 15% more? Because we used our QB's in the running game, quite heavily in the first 6 games too. But as far as RB's, and the touches they get, pretty even. Najee will get his volume, might even get more since they currently don't have that Gus Edward RB2...

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Smooth little edit you did there...but I digress. He pointed out that their top two backs missed significant amount of time. So you can't go by total attempts, but you CAN compare attempts PER GAME.

So if JK missed 7 games, but averaged 15 carries per game, and Najee missed 0 games, and averaged 15.5 carries per game...over a 17 game span, the difference in the number of carries between JK (Chargers RB1 last year) and Najee is 8 carries. So why wouldn't Najee get the same number of touches in his new offense as he did here? Assuming he does what he's done the last four years, stay healthy.

We'll take it a step further. Gus averaged 9.2 carries per game, and he missed 6 games. Warren averaged 8 carries per game, and he missed two games. So they ran their RB2 more than we did.

Lets go down the line some more, and here's where we are going to get our 15% more running plays. Fields averaged 6.2 carries per game, including games he didn't start. Wilson averaged 3.9 carries, for a total of 10.1 carries per game from our QB's. Herbert averaged 4 carries per game.

Why did we run 15% more? Because we used our QB's in the running game, quite heavily in the first 6 games too. But as far as RB's, and the touches they get, pretty even. Najee will get his volume, might even get more since they currently don't have that Gus Edward RB2...

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

 

[Lloyd]

Najee is already listed at the top of the Chargers' depth chart. Behind him are Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, and Jaret Patterson.

If LA doesn't take a legitimate competitor at the position in the draft, Harris is going to get plenty of touches.

I wonder if he'll keep his wonderful sub-4 ypc avg, going?

 

[NorthernBlitz]

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

Justin Fields rushing attempts: 62
Russel Wilson rushing attempts: 43

Total: 105

Herbert attempts: 69

Herbert stated all 17 games, so I assume that other QB attempts would be minimal.

So non-QB rushing attempts:

Steelers: 533 - 105 = 428
Chargers: 463 - 69 = 394

So we only ran 8.6% more than they did, not ~15%. Still appreciable. But half as much as I originally said because I didn't consider the difference in QB runs (good point insaniti!)

 

[insaniti]

It was not edited after it was quoted. The info on total rushing attempts is in the post that was quoted at the end of the 2nd line.

QB rushing is a good point. I didn't think of that when looking at total rushing attempts.

And if Najee does end up having no competition maybe they do run the wheels off him like we did in his rookie year. And maybe he continues to survive that kind of work load without missing time.

We all have guesses about what will happen. We'll have to wait a while to see who's closer to being right.

I actually had it quoted as you edited it and it changed as I was replying.

I don't know why you keep referencing his rookie year as a point of reference. Why choose his rookie year?

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I wonder if he'll keep his wonderful sub-4 ypc avg, going?

My guess is that he won't improve his YPC by much.

One of his virtues is that he's incredibly consistent.

And the Chargers had the same YPC that we did across the season. So he isn't going to a team with some dominant OL (like the Browns line that was blocking for Chubb at his peak).

 

[insaniti]

My guess is that he won't improve his YPC by much.

One of his virtues is that he's incredibly consistent.

And the Chargers had the same YPC that we did across the season. So he isn't going to a team with some dominant OL (like the Browns line that was blocking for Chubb at his peak).

No, he's going to a team with a legit threat at QB where you can't stack the box as much of as often as he faced here.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I actually had it quoted as you edited it and it changed as I was replying.

I don't know why you keep referencing his rookie year as a point of reference. Why choose his rookie year?

Because the argument is that Najee gets totals because of volume.

His best year for totals was his rookie year.

Because he had 307 rushes and 74 receptions. Which is a very high workload in the modern NFL.

So to beat his best year in totals, I think he'd need to get close to his best year for touches (because he doesn't break the big runs that drive things like big totals or YPC).

And I don't think many teams are going to give him that opportunity.

But the Chargers currently seem to have basically no competition in the RB room. So maybe he'll get the opportunity there. But as we saw with Warren, RB is probably the best position to get good contributors with little or no "pedigree".

 

[NorthernBlitz]

No, he's going to a team with a legit threat at QB where you can't stack the box as much of as often as he faced here.

And having a QB probably means that you throw a higher percentage of plays.

But, you probably also have an offense that can get first downs. So you probably get more total plays too.

I think there's reasonable arguments on both sides. I just happen to think my argument is correct. We'll have to see what happens IRL.

And if I'm wrong, I won't have a problem admitting it.

Edited to add: I think it's worth noting again that they had the same YPC as us last year. So it's not like having Herbert under center gave them some huge run game advantage last year. Although as you've said, they had guys injured. But remember the Rats a few seasons ago (actually seemed like they had this run for a couple years) where they'd have RBs hurt all over the place and still had a good running game. I think having an elite rushing QB helps the run game more than an above average passing QB. But it's just a guess...I didn't crunch the numbers.

 

[topseed]

Not sure if you saw it, we ran 15% more running plays than they did.

I don't think that moving away from A Smith as an OC == going to a less run heavy offense should come as a surprise.

Ultimately we'll see.

I can't see any world were he gets as many touches as we gave him as a rookie.

I did see the 15% number that you seemed to be hung up on. But when considering QB rushes it has even less bearing. As you did later acknowledge.

In addition, I went back and did a little more research. Dobbins got hurt in week 12 against the Ravens, which prompted his four-game absence. The injury happened 5 minutes into the 2nd quarter, and he did not play in the 2nd half of that game. He had 6 carries at that point. So, if we consider this unavailability for 2/3 of a game, Dobbins averaged more carries per game than Harris did.

Moving away from Arthur Smith? So what? Harbaugh is going to run the ball heavily. He always has. In his four years in San Francisco, the 49ers were #3, #7, #3, and #9 in rushing attempts.

Yes, there's a chance that with the Chargers, Najee won't match the overloaded 381 touches from his rookie year, which (conveniently for you) happens to be his career high. So maybe you'll be able to say that you were right about something.

 

[topseed]

I wonder if he'll keep his wonderful sub-4 ypc avg, going?

Well, let's see. Najee's current career YPC is 3.93. If he plays all 17 games and averages 15.5 carries per game, that's 263 carries. That would give him 1360 for his career. 1360 x 4 = 5440. His current yardage total is 4312. So he would need 1128 yards to reach 4.0 on the dot (a 4.29 average). And really, he only needs to get to 3.95 to have his career stat line read "4.0." So, technically, he could get to that wonderful average with only 1060 yards in this example., which is 4.03 YPC.

I'd take that bet.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I did see the 15% number that you seemed to be hung up on. But when considering QB rushes it has even less bearing. As you did later acknowledge.

In addition, I went back and did a little more research. Dobbins got hurt in week 12 against the Ravens, which prompted his four-game absence. The injury happened 5 minutes into the 2nd quarter, and he did not play in the 2nd half of that game. He had 6 carries at that point. So, if we consider this unavailability for 2/3 of a game, Dobbins averaged more carries per game than Harris did.

Moving away from Arthur Smith? So what? Harbaugh is going to run the ball heavily. He always has. In his four years in San Francisco, the 49ers were #3, #7, #3, and #9 in rushing attempts.

Yes, there's a chance that with the Chargers, Najee won't match the overloaded 381 touches from his rookie year, which (conveniently for you) happens to be his career high. So maybe you'll be able to say that you were right about something.

Re Smith vs Harbaugh: But less heavily than we ran it last year. Although there seems to be no competition. So as long as he doesn't lose a bunch of carries to a new rookie (deep RB class, so they'll probably draft one) or an undrafted rookie (like Warren) or something, maybe he'll get a bigger share of the workload than he got with us last year.

But since Najee is incredibly consistent across all 4 years, to best his best year with us (his rookie year) he wouldn't just have to get more work than with Smith (who ran it 8.5% more than Harbaugh...probably in fewer total plays, which I didn't check). He'd have to run more than he did in his rookie year (where he got career high yardage totals...but ~ the same YPC). And there just aren't many backs in the moden NFL who get that much work.

Re: "conveniently for me...". I'll try to explain the logic here. Because apparently it wasn't clear.

Notice that Najee's career highs in rushing and receiving also happen in his rookie year. But his yards/carry are very stable across his ~ 1100 carries. Basically the same value every year. Najee is extremely consistent.

My guess is that players tend not to get massive increases in efficiency after 1,100 carries in the NFL. Just like every year since his rookie year I've said that he won't get a 40 yard carry. And every year that's been true. Doesn't mean that betting the streak always works. But it's been a good strategy with Najee so far. Because he's big and strong so he can get tough yards. But he isn't fast (basically never runs away from guys) and he doesn't seem to have great vision (see: Ramon Foster saying that Najee runs into the backs of OL becuase he goes where holes should be isntead of where they are).

I get that the blocking hasn't been great (although I think it's on an upward trend and his YPC has stayed the same). He's also going to a team that had the same 4.1 YPC that the Steelers had last year. But in ~1,1000 he never had a carry that was blocked well enough to take 40 yards? Again, Bettis had run longer than Najee's career best in his last year with the Steelers. It's crazy that Najee hasn't had a 40 yard run just by dumb luck across that much work.

So my argument is that Najee would only beat his career best totals in rushing and receiving if he gets more touches.

And since I don't think he'll best the most touches he got with us (you're right, in his rookie year), I don't think he'll best his rushing or receiving totals. Plus, he has to stay healthy all year. This is his super-power. And it's pretty amazing that he's had this much work without any serious injuries. But it comes for all RBs eventually.

Hope that makes sense now. I'm OK if you don't agre with me. We'll see next season.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Well, let's see. Najee's current career YPC is 3.93. If he plays all 17 games and averages 15.5 carries per game, that's 263 carries. That would give him 1360 for his career. 1360 x 4 = 5440. His current yardage total is 4312. So he would need 1128 yards to reach 4.0 on the dot (a 4.29 average). And really, he only needs to get to 3.95 to have his career stat line read "4.0." So, technically, he could get to that wonderful average with only 1060 yards in this example., which is 4.03 YPC.

I'd take that bet.

My guess is that he'll be right around that number (4.1).

 

[insaniti]

Saquon Barkley went from 3.7, 4.4, and 3.9 to 5.8. Going from a bad team to a good team, with a QB makes a HUGE difference. Am I saying to expect Najee to get almost 6 yards a carry, no I'm not. But to say that stuff doesn't happen is ridiculous. Especially when you have teams that we faced just this last year that said "we know they are going to run the ball, even if it isn't working, they are going to run the ball". And this was evident in Najee's career yards BEFORE contact average of 1.82. He's hit in the backfield more than any other back in the league, and the numbers back that up.

He's not a zone blocking back, that's what they are trying to run here. LAC runs a man blocking scheme, fits Najee's style. I'll take the bet, he improves on his ypa and total yards over last years numbers.

 

[NorthernBlitz]

Saquon Barkley went from 3.7, 4.4, and 3.9 to 5.8. Going from a bad team to a good team, with a QB makes a HUGE difference. Am I saying to expect Najee to get almost 6 yards a carry, no I'm not. But to say that stuff doesn't happen is ridiculous. Especially when you have teams that we faced just this last year that said "we know they are going to run the ball, even if it isn't working, they are going to run the ball". And this was evident in Najee's career yards BEFORE contact average of 1.82. He's hit in the backfield more than any other back in the league, and the numbers back that up.

He's not a zone blocking back, that's what they are trying to run here. LAC runs a man blocking scheme, fits Najee's style. I'll take the bet, he improves on his ypa and total yards over last years numbers.

Doesn't happen often. And using Barkley as a comp for Najee doesn't make much sense to me. Especially if you leave out almost half his career from your comparison.

Barkley's YPC / year starting in 2018 (rookie): 5.0, 4.6, 1.8, 3.7, 4.4, 3.9, 5.8
Barkley's longs / year starting in 2018 (rookie): 78, 68, 18, 41, 68, 36, 72

YPC isn't a measure of how many yards you expect a RB to get on any given carry. It's a proxy for "do they get big runs". For Barkley, the answer has always been yes.

Barkley has always gotten big runs (except in his 3rd year when he only got 19 carries). Last season, he got big runs more often than he had previously in his career. I do think it was surprising that he blew his previous best out of the water though. Barkley moving to the best blocking team in the league made it so he could do the things he was already doing at a higher rate. That's different than expecting someone to move to another OK blocking team and do things he's never done before (when he wasn't running behind a line of future NFLers - mostly 1st round picks - against a bunch of guys who mostly never made practice squads).

Najee has super-consistent YPC. Because he's a good runner who doesn't get big runs. Expecting these big runs to happen (on a team that had the same YPC as us) doesn't make much sense (to me anyway).

Does this mean it 100% won't happen? No. Which is why I also said things like:

I think there's reasonable arguments on both sides. I just happen to think my argument is correct. We'll have to see what happens IRL.

And if I'm wrong, I won't have a problem admitting it.

and

Doesn't mean that betting the streak always works.

 

[insaniti]

I used Barkley, and chose the years I did, because that's when they had REALLY bad QB play and REALLY bad OL play. Much better comparison to the current state of the Steelers offense. This obsession with big runs, it's not as simple as just out running people. It has a lot to do with where the safeties are lined up, did the OL get to the second level, are the TE's doing their jobs. The Steelers offense is easy to defend, load the box and keep your corners on the line in press, and keep your safeties back. Don't worry about the middle of the field, or the intermediate area. It's going to be a run, a run, a dump off/quick hitter, or a deep ball. This also doesn't bode well for breaking off big runs.

Two years ago, Najee lead the league in what PFF was calling "explosive" runs, which they described as runs of 15 yards or more. Yes Najee is consistent, yes Najee gets volume, but if you put Najee in a scheme that fits him better, and he's not getting hit in the backfield as often, he's going to improve on his numbers.

That is EXACTLY what Barkley did. He went from 2.2,1.8, 1.9, 2.5 and 1.9 yards before contact with the Giants to 3.8 with the Eagles. He went from getting hit in the backfield on almost every carry, to not being touched until he was thru the line on average. That is how you go from 4 ypa to 5.8. Again, not expecting Najee to be Saquon. But showing a back that went from a bad team to a good team, and the improvements that made in their career is very important.

You also said that he'll need to volume to match his best years, and he'll only be around his career average again. Judging any offensive player that has ONLY played for us the past four years, and making any type of final judgement is just stupid. Again, I'll take the bet and say that Najee has a career year in all aspects (minus total catches, his rookie year was a crazy amount of catches for ANY RB).

 

[NorthernBlitz]

I used Barkley, and chose the years I did, because that's when they had REALLY bad QB play and REALLY bad OL play. Much better comparison to the current state of the Steelers offense. This obsession with big runs, it's not as simple as just out running people. It has a lot to do with where the safeties are lined up, did the OL get to the second level, are the TE's doing their jobs. The Steelers offense is easy to defend, load the box and keep your corners on the line in press, and keep your safeties back. Don't worry about the middle of the field, or the intermediate area. It's going to be a run, a run, a dump off/quick hitter, or a deep ball. This also doesn't bode well for breaking off big runs.

Two years ago, Najee lead the league in what PFF was calling "explosive" runs, which they described as runs of 15 yards or more. Yes Najee is consistent, yes Najee gets volume, but if you put Najee in a scheme that fits him better, and he's not getting hit in the backfield as often, he's going to improve on his numbers.

That is EXACTLY what Barkley did. He went from 2.2,1.8, 1.9, 2.5 and 1.9 yards before contact with the Giants to 3.8 with the Eagles. He went from getting hit in the backfield on almost every carry, to not being touched until he was thru the line on average. That is how you go from 4 ypa to 5.8. Again, not expecting Najee to be Saquon. But showing a back that went from a bad team to a good team, and the improvements that made in their career is very important.

You also said that he'll need to volume to match his best years, and he'll only be around his career average again. Judging any offensive player that has ONLY played for us the past four years, and making any type of final judgement is just stupid. Again, I'll take the bet and say that Najee has a career year in all aspects (minus total catches, his rookie year was a crazy amount of catches for ANY RB).

I think this actually kind of shows that (1) the blocking wasn't all that bad and that (2) Najee isn't great at running in the open field.

There are sites (I don't think I'm supposed to link them, but I will if that's OK) that will look at number of runs by yardage.

Najee was among the best at 15+ yard runs. But much lower in 20+ yard runs. And I think close to 30th or something in 30+ yard runs. I did a pretty big post about this on another board. I can pull up that data from there if you'd like to see it.

But ultimately, I think it supports the idea that Najee can get good runs when blocked well. But he doesn't run away from guys. The only time I remember him outrunning a defender was on his reception long from this year. I wouldn't be surprised if there are plays I'm not remembering, but this is the reason he doesn't get big plays. I think part of it is that he's not fast. I also think part of it is that he isn't good at running to space (not great vision or just likes contact). But again...we'll see what happens in real life.

You also said that he'll need to volume to match his best years, and he'll only be around his career average again. I believe this will be true for Najee. You say he's only played 4 years, but most modern running backs get what, 6-7 as starters if they last a long time? I'm not making a final judgement. I've said in most (if not every) post that I could easily be wrong and we'll see what happens IRL.

I'm happy to take the bet too. If the stakes are admitting we were wrong on the internet, I'd do that with or without the bet. I hope that Najee crushes it and gets all his bonuses. I think if he does that, he might factor into the comp formula and maybe increase a 6th to a 5th or something (although things get pretty weird after you hit the limit of picks I think).

To be clear, we're betting the over/under on Najee's rushing total is 1200 yards, you're taking the over and I'm taking the under? Or are you asking to bet the parley where Najee has yards>1200 yards, carries > 307, YPC > 4.1, rushing TDs > 7, receiving TDs > 3, and Y/R > 7.9?

Personally, I like the "stakes" of just admitting we were wrong on the site.

I'm Ok taking the under in either of these bets. But the parley is super-unfair to you. Even the yards bet is unfair. The Vegas line will be much lower than this to account to the possibility of injury.

 

[DesertSteel]

I predict that Najee's YPC go down to 3.2 this year.