Najee states it again: team needs more discipline

[Gildong Sack]

Agreed! That's his M.O.

Sometimes he looks like the 2nd coming of Marshawn Lynch and some games more like Greg Hawthorne...

He certainly didnt have it in the Buffalo game...I kept waiting for the pile to move forward, or him to stiff arm his way out of a tackle like the Seattle game...never happened.

And the Bills were supposed to be weak against the run. It must have been a point of emphasis for them to stop Najee leading up to the game.

 

[steel dino]

And the Bills were supposed to be weak against the run. It must have been a point of emphasis for them to stop Najee leading up to the game.

Or the frigid temps could have affected him?
contact hurts more with single digit temps … not to mention the frozen playing surface .
Some guys just can’t deal with that ?

 

[Gildong Sack]

Or the frigid temps could have affected him?
contact hurts more with single digit temps … not to mention the frozen playing surface .
Some guys just can’t deal with that ?

Yeah, hadn't thought of that. I picture him as a tough guy the way he runs, but that is possible.
He only had 12 carries as well.

 

[keslerclan]

IMO, the biggest "factor" in determining YPC is scheme/playcalling. We have had an awful scheme and our playcalling allows "projection" of the play by the defensive unit we go up against. If they know the playcall, it makes it much easier to defeat. Also, if we have a playcall sent in AND cannot change it, based on the defensive "look" (8-9 players in the box), our RB is not going to fare well either.

If you were to look at YBC (yards before contact) as an influence, as well as YAC (yards after contact), it SHOULD show a correlation of the results. These numbers, while heavily influencial upon a runner's success/failure, do not tell the whole story. In most cases, they are indicative of the "predictability" of the playcall and/or the scheme but also the "reaction" or preparedness of the defense to our playcall.

While Warren has a better YPC, he also has a much better YBC than Najee. This is because he either is benefitting from running against a "less loaded" box, a less predictable play, better execution, or HE is simply better at making the first guy miss. I think it's a combination.

This year, Warren had an average of 3.1 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 5.1.
Najee had and average of 1.9 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 4.1.

Does this mean Najee was better? They both had a 2.2 average for yards after contact (YAC).

I'd say this points more to predictability/scheme than execution. Sometimes the play causes a runner to be hit in the backfield, sometimes its the scheme (can't block overloaded box w less blockers) and sometimes its predictability. Occasionally, its the runners own fault for not deciding where to go fast enough, which we may all agree, Warren is faster to get downhill (and out of the way). In the past, Le'veon Bell was praised for "delaying" his forward movement as having "good vision" and letting his blocks develop...to me, its all outcome based.

BTW, McCaffrey had a 3.2 YBC for the year, which is a great number. Warren missed this stat by .1 yards.

 

[bigben]

Patrick Mahomes was more efficient rushing the ball vs the bills than Harris. Pacheco was over 2x more efficient.
If Harris had 100 yds we win that game despite the defense.

 

[bigben]

IMO, the biggest "factor" in determining YPC is scheme/playcalling. We have had an awful scheme and our playcalling allows "projection" of the play by the defensive unit we go up against. If they know the playcall, it makes it much easier to defeat. Also, if we have a playcall sent in AND cannot change it, based on the defensive "look" (8-9 players in the box), our RB is not going to fare well either.

If you were to look at YBC (yards before contact) as an influence, as well as YAC (yards after contact), it SHOULD show a correlation of the results. These numbers, while heavily influencial upon a runner's success/failure, do not tell the whole story. In most cases, they are indicative of the "predictability" of the playcall and/or the scheme but also the "reaction" or preparedness of the defense to our playcall.

While Warren has a better YPC, he also has a much better YBC than Najee. This is because he either is benefitting from running against a "less loaded" box, a less predictable play, better execution, or HE is simply better at making the first guy miss. I think it's a combination.

This year, Warren had an average of 3.1 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 5.1.
Najee had and average of 1.9 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 4.1.

Does this mean Najee was better? They both had a 2.2 average for yards after contact (YAC).

I'd say this points more to predictability/scheme than execution. Sometimes the play causes a runner to be hit in the backfield, sometimes its the scheme (can't block overloaded box w less blockers) and sometimes its predictability. Occasionally, its the runners own fault for not deciding where to go fast enough, which we may all agree, Warren is faster to get downhill (and out of the way). In the past, Le'veon Bell was praised for "delaying" his forward movement as having "good vision" and letting his blocks develop...to me, its all outcome based.

BTW, McCaffrey had a 3.2 YBC for the year, which is a great number. Warren missed this stat by .1 yards.

Warren is much quicker/more explosive with better vision. Warren sees the hole and gets north and south quick.
Najee runs into the back of his own lineman as often as he finds the hole.
Or he tries to bounce it outside and we all know how that works.
Running east and west do not count as yards before contact.
The ypc isn't close, none of the rb advanced metrics make a case for Harris over Warren. Quite the opposite.
What are the excuses for next year gonna be with Harris?

 

[SteelerFan448]

Imagine Warrens stats if he was a 49er

Maybe 300 yards sitting behind CMC?

 

[Greg Lloyd]

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports...layoffs-2023-mike-tomlin/stories/202401150101

He sure feels strongly that this team sucks with discipline, that's for sure.

 

[topseed]

This year, Warren had an average of 3.1 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 5.1. Najee had and average of 1.9 yards before contact (YBC) and a YPC average of 4.1.

Does this mean Najee was better? They both had a 2.2 average for yards after contact (YAC).

You miscalculated there. Warren's average for yards after contact would be 2.0, which is actually less than Najee's number at 2.2. Good post, though -- it characterizes their situational usage pretty well.

 

[keslerclan]

No miscalculation, just a typo. Warren had the same YAC but an TPC of 5.3 not 5.1.

Not saying one is better than another but Warren in two years has had YBCs of 3.1 both years and a YPC of 4.9 and 5.3.
Najee has had a YBC of 1.7, 2.1 and 1.9 with YPC avgs of 3.9, 3.8 and 4.1.

Look at the Ravens under Roman vs Monkin...primary back vs secondary back numbers. Roman ran a power run game and always overloaded the "hole" with extra guys, including 300# FBs while not nearly as dynamic in the passing game. Monkin pays more attention to the passing game while not changing the QB carries on average.
Gus Edwards with Roman had YBCs of 2.6, 2.5, 2.3, and 2.9 and with Monkin a 2.5 with YACs of 2.6, 2.8, 2.7 and 2.1 and with Monkin a 1.6 with a career low YPC of 4.1 (every other year he has carried a YPC of 5.0 to 5.3.
Meanwhile, Dobbins in 2020 and 2022 had YBCs of 3.1 and 3.5 with YPC avgs of 6.0 and 5.7. Obviously, they call better plays and have a better scheme than we have had for years.

For the record, most teams "3rd-down backs carry higher YPCs for the season because of the less predictability of the playcall.

Not saying Najee is better than Warren at all BUT if Najee has a 3 yard running start?? They may be closer than we think. That is all scheme and predictability and less on the player. Now, the reason we love Warren is because he just "bangs" through the line (whether or not there is a gap) and Najee frustrates us because he cannot move sideways but often does, thus eliminating his size/momentum advantage.

 

[BLITZ]

Patrick Mahomes was more efficient rushing the ball vs the bills than Harris. Pacheco was over 2x more efficient.
If Harris had 100 yds we win that game despite the defense.

Did you type that with a straight face, or where you giggling like a mad man

 

[bigben]

No miscalculation, just a typo. Warren had the same YAC but an TPC of 5.3 not 5.1.

Not saying one is better than another but Warren in two years has had YBCs of 3.1 both years and a YPC of 4.9 and 5.3.
Najee has had a YBC of 1.7, 2.1 and 1.9 with YPC avgs of 3.9, 3.8 and 4.1.

Look at the Ravens under Roman vs Monkin...primary back vs secondary back numbers. Roman ran a power run game and always overloaded the "hole" with extra guys, including 300# FBs while not nearly as dynamic in the passing game. Monkin pays more attention to the passing game while not changing the QB carries on average.
Gus Edwards with Roman had YBCs of 2.6, 2.5, 2.3, and 2.9 and with Monkin a 2.5 with YACs of 2.6, 2.8, 2.7 and 2.1 and with Monkin a 1.6 with a career low YPC of 4.1 (every other year he has carried a YPC of 5.0 to 5.3.
Meanwhile, Dobbins in 2020 and 2022 had YBCs of 3.1 and 3.5 with YPC avgs of 6.0 and 5.7. Obviously, they call better plays and have a better scheme than we have had for years.

For the record, most teams "3rd-down backs carry higher YPCs for the season because of the less predictability of the playcall.

Not saying Najee is better than Warren at all BUT if Najee has a 3 yard running start?? They may be closer than we think. That is all scheme and predictability and less on the player. Now, the reason we love Warren is because he just "bangs" through the line (whether or not there is a gap) and Najee frustrates us because he cannot move sideways but often does, thus eliminating his size/momentum advantage.

If two different RB have very different results behind the same line with the same scheme and playcallers you can definitely say after 2 years sample size one is superior. Just like Dobbins is better than Gus, Chubb is better than ford and hunt by 2-3 ypc. Kyren williams 5.0ypc is a yard more efficient than (Rivers) 4.0ypc his 3rd down back/backup. Pacheco is 4.6 ypc vs his 3rd down back Edwards Helaire 3.2
The RB matters.
If Not?
Find me another split backfield with each runner over 100 carries where the Backup is 1.2 yards more efficient over 2 seasons?

Warren has been statistically superior to Harris for two seasons in the run and passing game.

Najee led the league with 8 carries for 20+ yards
Had 24 carries of 10+
30 Broken tackles
.35 (Rush yards over expected)

Warren had 6 carries for 20+ yards
Had 24 carries of 10+ yards
27 Broken tackles
1.1 (rush yards over expected)

Warren did that with 106 less carries than Harris

 

[keslerclan]

Find me another split backfield with each runner over 100 carries where the Backup is 1.2 yards more efficient over 2 seasons?

Sure thing brother, let's take a look at the RB situation in Dallas 2021-2023 when Tony Pollard played the Jaylen Warren "role" as the primary back-up to Zeke Elliott.

In 2021-2022, Zeke was the RB1and had 237 and 231 attempts with a YBC of 2.5 and 2.3 and a YPC/YPA of 4.2 and 3.8.
In 2021-2022, Tony Pollard was the RB2 and had 130 and 193 attempts with a YBC of 3.1 and 2.6 and a YPC/YPA of 5.5 and 5.2 (+1.3 and +1.4 respectively)

When Tony Pollard became the RB1 in 2023 (after Zeke's departure), his YBC dropped to 2.0 and his YPC/YPA dropped to 4.0.

Again, I'm not saying either back is better and we all love Jaylen for his aggression, but he would see his YPC go down if he were the unlucky RB1 running into "stacked boxes" on first and second down all year. That is our issue.
We cannot "check out of" a stacked box, to a play-action pass like Ben used to do under Todd Haley's offense. He made Leveon Bell money throwing him 2-3 yard passes after faking the run to him. He also had record high short passes to Heath during this time on play-action fakes.

 

[stillwright]

Sure thing brother, let's take a look at the RB situation in Dallas 2021-2023 when Tony Pollard played the Jaylen Warren "role" as the primary back-up to Zeke Elliott.

In 2021-2022, Zeke was the RB1and had 237 and 231 attempts with a YBC of 2.5 and 2.3 and a YPC/YPA of 4.2 and 3.8.
In 2021-2022, Tony Pollard was the RB2 and had 130 and 193 attempts with a YBC of 3.1 and 2.6 and a YPC/YPA of 5.5 and 5.2 (+1.3 and +1.4 respectively)

When Tony Pollard became the RB1 in 2023 (after Zeke's departure), his YBC dropped to 2.0 and his YPC/YPA dropped to 4.0.

Again, I'm not saying either back is better and we all love Jaylen for his aggression, but he would see his YPC go down if he were the unlucky RB1 running into "stacked boxes" on first and second down all year. That is our issue.
We cannot "check out of" a stacked box, to a play-action pass like Ben used to do under Todd Haley's offense. He made Leveon Bell money throwing him 2-3 yard passes after faking the run to him. He also had record high short passes to Heath during this time on play-action fakes.

Stop wasting your breathe trying to explain it to him. He simply dislikes Harris.

 

[BLITZ]

Harris averaged 4.1 YPC this year when everyone knew it was going to be a run play. That is pretty damn good.

 

[topseed]

No miscalculation, just a typo. Warren had the same YAC but an TPC of 5.3 not 5.1.

A typo? Last time I checked, the 1 key is not next to the 3 key. OK. Your point is still well taken.

 

[keslerclan]

Although I am prone to legitimate "typo" errors, this one was a "memory-o". I "misremembered" the total YPC as being 5.1 when it should have been 5.3. After it was pointed out, I began wondering if I was "slipping" and determined that I must be...please don't make fun of my age/steelers related handicap.

 

[slashsteel]

A typo? Last time I checked, the 1 key is not next to the 3 key. OK. Your point is still well taken.

It is on a phone if you have big fingers or a big thumb.

 

[polythemus]

It’s funny that Jaylen Warren, Muth, and TJ all said they’d like to see some things change as far as rules and accountability. Cam was the only one to say oh no everything is just fiiine. How can you take anything the guy says serious. He’s as bad as Tomlin.

If we are still discussing this after a few seasons it is concerning and obviously still a problem.

Most of Tomlin’s tenure he hasn’t had to worry about it until Mr Small Chest got paid and started acting a fool. MT has let some people do what they want to do and let things fester into major issues. Some of this is because of mentality of players today and stupid social media.

There are no enforcers in the locker room controlling the stupidity. They are all gone.

I am ok with Najee kind of pointing it out but it would be better if he has had the production. Is that fair with the state of the Offense, OC, and OL? I don’t know. He is used to what goes on under Saban. They are professionals now and it shouldn’t matter.

Random soliloquy and diatribe off.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

And the Bills were supposed to be weak against the run. It must have been a point of emphasis for them to stop Najee leading up to the game.

That wreaks of a team with coaching
Damn those pesky Bills

 

[Aussie_Steeler]

Funny you use an example trashing Dwyer and Redman to try to prove a point. Both those guys were over 4ypc for their career, that wasn't good enough, so tell me how Harris at 3.9 is good enough? I'm guessing Harris was drafted in the first round to put up better numbers than conner? No?

Funny you;

1. Accuse me of trashing Redman and Dwyer, whuich I wasn't, just pointing out that they didn't go so well as starters as they did when they weren't starting and quite a few people on here wanted them to start so Mendenhal could be run out of townl;
2. Missed the point entirely. Their career rushing yards may have been over 4ypc, but when they shared the starting load (as opposed to spot starting) their YPC went down significantly. Based on their yards per carry when they were starting for extended periods, they would not have finished with career averages of 4ypc if they had been starters throughout their careers.

 

[Drink IRON City]

And the Bills were supposed to be weak against the run. It must have been a point of emphasis for them to stop Najee leading up to the game.

Or the frigid temps could have affected him?
contact hurts more with single digit temps … not to mention the frozen playing surface .
Some guys just can’t deal with that ?

Yeah, hadn't thought of that. I picture him as a tough guy the way he runs, but that is possible.
He only had 12 carries as well.

The biggest thing was they over-loaded the box due to our Tomlin Turtle Ball play calling / game plan. Running every time on first down tends to get predictability instilled in the opposing “D”. Then add in not much down field passing to worry about—————— Business is BoomiN——————-


Salute the nation

 

[bigben]

Funny you;

1. Accuse me of trashing Redman and Dwyer, whuich I wasn't, just pointing out that they didn't go so well as starters as they did when they weren't starting and quite a few people on here wanted them to start so Mendenhal could be run out of townl;
2. Missed the point entirely. Their career rushing yards may have been over 4ypc, but when they shared the starting load (as opposed to spot starting) their YPC went down significantly. Based on their yards per carry when they were starting for extended periods, they would not have finished with career averages of 4ypc if they had been starters throughout their careers.

I base opinions on facts not what if's I've made up in my head.
Mendenhall was very similar to Harris, 1st rd pick, prototypical build for a power back, looked the part. Ran slow and indecisive Never lived up to the hype.
Warrens Carries doubled this year and he was more efficient than he was with less carries last season.
Harris is still 3.9, Warren is still 5+,
When that changes you can tell me more about you're theories you've made up in you're head. I'll stick to the facts

 

[BLITZ]

I base opinions on facts not what if's I've made up in my head.
Mendenhall was very similar to Harris, 1st rd pick, prototypical build for a power back, looked the part. Ran slow and indecisive Never lived up to the hype.
Warrens Carries doubled this year and he was more efficient than he was with less carries last season.
Harris is still 3.9, Warren is still 5+,
When that changes you can tell me more about you're theories you've made up in you're head. I'll stick to the facts

Don't want to post the article. But Google what MJD says about Harris and Warren. Basically Harris breaks the defense down and Warren breaks off runs due to it

 

[Stewey]

He certainly didnt have it in the Buffalo game...I kept waiting for the pile to move forward, or him to stiff arm his way out of a tackle like the Seattle game...never happened.

Buffalo's D must have watched those same videos of Harris that we did!