NFL Draft Positional Value

[SteelerFan448]

I'm big on drafting premium positions at the top of the draft. Typically I only look at the highest paid positions, but there is some data points on this that I found interesting:



Center surprised me a bit as I thought it would've been 20-30 spots higher with tight end dropping into the third round. The depth at wide receiver in recent years has likely skewed this toward the lower end. Just so many good options.

I attempted to slot some potential targets who could either fall or possibly be available at each spot in the draft.

1.12 - Quarterback
-NONE

1.13 - Defensive End (EDGE) - OT, CB, IDL seem like the top-3 options in the first round. If the board goes wrong, it'll be hard to pass on an EDGE, even knowing there's no chance of starting this year.
-Tyree Wilson
-Myles Murphy
-Lukas Van Ness
-Nolan Smith
-Will McDonald

1.18 - Left Tackle - I'm fine with any of the first four at 17 and there's a chance all could play LT. Wright is my only question, but if he can lock down RT for the next 8 years, fantastic.
-Paris Johnson
-Broderick Jones
-Peter Skoronski
-Darnell Wright?
-Anton Harrison

1.19 - Defensive Tackle (IDL) - These are the only two that offer a threat as a pass rusher and that's why you have to take one early if you want a guy who can rush the passer. The best option later is Benton, who may develop some pass rush skills.
-Jalen Carter
-Bryan Bresee

1.24 - Cornerback - The rankings for these guys are all over the place, which leaves me concerned for a high bust potential. There are also some players who could be there in the late second through fourth who offer good upside, particularly sitting a year behind the veterans in the lineup.
-Christian Gonzalez
-Devon Witherspoon
-Joey Porter Jr.
-Deonte Banks

1.25 - Right Tackle - I think Wright is rated higher than some fans believe, while Jones would be an ideal trade down from 32.
-Darnell Wright
-Dawand Jones

2.33 - Running Back
-NONE

2.34 - Safety - Branch is "falling" on draft boards and available in a lot of mocks at 32. A lack of athleticism may result in a fall, but the play on the field tells us that he'll be drafted earlier.
-Brian Branch

2.38 - Right Guard - Guard doesn't make sense given the investment.
-O'Cyrus Torrence

2.40 - Left Guard
-O'Cyrus Torrence (I don't know if they see him as a left or right guard)
-Steve Avila?

2.47 - Linebacker - Late second and third seems like the sweet spot for this position. I am in the camp that believe coaches get too enamored with athleticism and put too much on these guys too early and they fail.
-Jack Campbell
-Drew Sanders
-Trenton Simpson
-Daiyan Henley

2.59 - Wide Receiver - The new addition takes some steam off this position, but if the right player falls, I'm not passing up a good receiver.
-Cedric Tillman
-Josh Downs
-Marvin Mims
-Jayden Reed
-Jonathan Mingo

2.60 - Tight End - Washington is a blocker who needs to prove himself as a receiver. I don't get the first-round and early second-round hype.
-Darnell Washington

3.89 - Center - There are centers going high in mocks, but they tend to fall. None of these prospects are Linderbaum. Even Humphrey fell and I would've been thrilled if the Steelers took him in the third. I think there will be good options in the late second and probably even into the third.
-John Michael Schmitz
-Joe Tippmann
-Steve Avila?
-Luke Wypler

 

[slashsteel]

I think people get enamored with Washington's size. Dawand gives me a little concern about if his weight will be an issue. If he struggles with it he might not achieve his talent level. Been cooling a little on him at 32. I think value wise and how runs happen quickly with LTs that they should think long and hard if one is there at 17. Deep enough draft to get a corner in 2.

 

[SteelerFan448]

I think people get enamored with Washington's size. Dawand gives me a little concern about if his weight will be an issue. If he struggles with it he might not achieve his talent level. Been cooling a little on him at 32. I think value wise and how runs happen quickly with LTs that they should think long and hard if one is there at 17. Deep enough draft to get a corner in 2.

Ideally you want a instant starter, at a position of need/premium position in the first round. Tackle is a position that checks every box with guys. The Steelers need starters at cornerback in 2024 meaning they can find one in the mid rounds who can develop. I agree with you on this.

 

[Drink IRON City]

I’m with slash on the tight end. O’Canada can’t seem to use the “weapons” we have yet alone a second stud tight end.

We have bigger needs and if that LT is there and we pass because we take the TE, all hell should break loose. That is a fear of mine due to how i see the need for left tackle, BUT the STEELERS may not.

Imagine if we had CREED, and Thursday’s LT…………….


Salute the nation

 

[Drink IRON City]

I'm big on drafting premium positions at the top of the draft. Typically I only look at the highest paid positions, but there is some data points on this that I found interesting:



Center surprised me a bit as I thought it would've been 20-30 spots higher with tight end dropping into the third round. The depth at wide receiver in recent years has likely skewed this toward the lower end. Just so many good options.

I attempted to slot some potential targets who could either fall or possibly be available at each spot in the draft.

1.12 - Quarterback
-NONE

1.13 - Defensive End (EDGE) - OT, CB, IDL seem like the top-3 options in the first round. If the board goes wrong, it'll be hard to pass on an EDGE, even knowing there's no chance of starting this year.
-Tyree Wilson
-Myles Murphy
-Lukas Van Ness
-Nolan Smith
-Will McDonald

1.18 - Left Tackle - I'm fine with any of the first four at 17 and there's a chance all could play LT. Wright is my only question, but if he can lock down RT for the next 8 years, fantastic.
-Paris Johnson
-Broderick Jones
-Peter Skoronski
-Darnell Wright?
-Anton Harrison

1.19 - Defensive Tackle (IDL) - These are the only two that offer a threat as a pass rusher and that's why you have to take one early if you want a guy who can rush the passer. The best option later is Benton, who may develop some pass rush skills.
-Jalen Carter
-Bryan Bresee

1.24 - Cornerback - The rankings for these guys are all over the place, which leaves me concerned for a high bust potential. There are also some players who could be there in the late second through fourth who offer good upside, particularly sitting a year behind the veterans in the lineup.
-Christian Gonzalez
-Devon Witherspoon
-Joey Porter Jr.
-Deonte Banks

1.25 - Right Tackle - I think Wright is rated higher than some fans believe, while Jones would be an ideal trade down from 32.
-Darnell Wright
-Dawand Jones

2.33 - Running Back
-NONE

2.34 - Safety - Branch is "falling" on draft boards and available in a lot of mocks at 32. A lack of athleticism may result in a fall, but the play on the field tells us that he'll be drafted earlier.
-Brian Branch

2.38 - Right Guard - Guard doesn't make sense given the investment.
-O'Cyrus Torrence

2.40 - Left Guard
-O'Cyrus Torrence (I don't know if they see him as a left or right guard)
-Steve Avila?

2.47 - Linebacker - Late second and third seems like the sweet spot for this position. I am in the camp that believe coaches get too enamored with athleticism and put too much on these guys too early and they fail.
-Jack Campbell
-Drew Sanders
-Trenton Simpson
-Daiyan Henley

2.59 - Wide Receiver - The new addition takes some steam off this position, but if the right player falls, I'm not passing up a good receiver.
-Cedric Tillman
-Josh Downs
-Marvin Mims
-Jayden Reed
-Jonathan Mingo

2.60 - Tight End - Washington is a blocker who needs to prove himself as a receiver. I don't get the first-round and early second-round hype.
-Darnell Washington

3.89 - Center - There are centers going high in mocks, but they tend to fall. None of these prospects are Linderbaum. Even Humphrey fell and I would've been thrilled if the Steelers took him in the third. I think there will be good options in the late second and probably even into the third.
-John Michael Schmitz
-Joe Tippmann
-Steve Avila?
-Luke Wypler

Just wanted to add

HellA GREAT post SteelerFan448, thank you !!!!


Salute the nation

 

[Litos]

I’m with slash on the tight end. O’Canada can’t seem to use the “weapons” we have yet alone a second stud tight end.

We have bigger needs and if that LT is there and we pass because we take the TE, all hell should break loose. That is a fear of mine due to how i see the need for left tackle, BUT the STEELERS may not.

Imagine if we had CREED, and Thursday’s LT…………….


Salute the nation

There won't be any LT left when Washington gets in to play

 

[Drink IRON City]

There won't be any LT left when Washington gets in to play

Creed Humphrey was there in the second when they passed and took Muuuth.

Although less likely, it does go to show that players can fall.

It’s hard for us to see through the eyes of the team brass, I think they value Dan Moore mor than most here do and thus my fear of not even taking a LT.


Salute the nation

 

[Litos]

Creed Humphrey was there in the second when they passed and took Muuuth.

Although less likely, it does go to show that players can fall.

It’s hard for us to see through the eyes of the team brass, I think they value Dan Moore mor than most here do and thus my fear of not even taking a LT.


Salute the nation

C vs LT in that comparison my friend.

The last top LT to be picked in theory is Harrison, I think even Wright though a possible LT(surefire RT) will be picked ahead of him, so we are talking about 2.32 max to get any of these. Washington comes in to play at our 2.49 if I were the GM, and if we already got the LT and then a CB or ILB I'd seriously consider the dual threat TE as the offense needs more weapons than the D.

We can always get a Nickel CB in the 3rd or 4th round, as whoever we get after 1.17 won't be a #1 CB and even then there are some doubts if this class has any true #1, and we already have a bunch of #2s in the roster (though no Nickel).

As for ILB this is a weak class apparently and even Simpson could be a bust as he is suspect against the run, Campbell might be gone for our 2.49 and Sanders is a project, heck even the 3 guys could be gone for 2.49, who knows.

A TE that can run block like an OLine man and pass block like the best of them and can catch passes too and run at a very decent 4.64 for a 6'7" guy and has 11" soft catching hands... well they don't grow on trees.

Here I share a combine graph courtesy of nfldraftbuzz.com


That's my speech to convince you guys to take a look at him if available at 2.49

 

[topseed]

I think people get enamored with Washington's size. Dawand gives me a little concern about if his weight will be an issue. If he struggles with it he might not achieve his talent level. Been cooling a little on him at 32. I think value wise and how runs happen quickly with LTs that they should think long and hard if one is there at 17. Deep enough draft to get a corner in 2.

2.60 - Tight End - Washington is a blocker who needs to prove himself as a receiver. I don't get the first-round and early second-round hype.
-Darnell Washington

People get enamored with Washington's size AND athletic ability. If you watched this kid at the combine, it's easy to see that he has a world of potential beyond just his blocking prowess.

 

[SteelerSask2]

I don't know. I guess if they gave up 2.17 for a ten year Tackle I can live with it. I do not want to give up 2.1. And I would prefer Jones. It just sticks in my craw because I think they could maybe get Campbell at 2.17. He is my pick of the draft.

 

[madinsomniac]

I think people get enamored with Washington's size. Dawand gives me a little concern about if his weight will be an issue. If he struggles with it he might not achieve his talent level. Been cooling a little on him at 32. I think value wise and how runs happen quickly with LTs that they should think long and hard if one is there at 17. Deep enough draft to get a corner in 2.

Washington had a really good combine… i watched his stuff.. if we didn’t have muth I love that pick… but we do.

For a while Dawand was my pick in the second round, but he has had a ton of red flags the past couple weeks and he is going to end up at RT not LT…

Paris Johnson has some technical issues that I think he can get past, but neither of these guys are going to coast on athleticism in the NFL. PJ just seems more likely to be successful out of the Ohio State guys

I still feel that Broderick Jones will be the most well rounded LT in the draft.
Paris Johnson has the highest ceiling if he pans put.
Skoronski is the most technically sound, if his physical limitations in arm length don’t force a move to guard
Antwon Harrison is the pure passblocking LT
Darnell Wright is the most sound RT
Dawand Jones is the RT with a huge boom/ bust ratio…

That all the Tackles id consider within the top two rounds … and most of them I would not touch at 17

 

[Drink IRON City]

C vs LT in that comparison my friend.

The last top LT to be picked in theory is Harrison, I think even Wright though a possible LT(surefire RT) will be picked ahead of him, so we are talking about 2.32 max to get any of these. Washington comes in to play at our 2.49 if I were the GM, and if we already got the LT and then a CB or ILB I'd seriously consider the dual threat TE as the offense needs more weapons than the D.

We can always get a Nickel CB in the 3rd or 4th round, as whoever we get after 1.17 won't be a #1 CB and even then there are some doubts if this class has any true #1, and we already have a bunch of #2s in the roster (though no Nickel).

As for ILB this is a weak class apparently and even Simpson could be a bust as he is suspect against the run, Campbell might be gone for our 2.49 and Sanders is a project, heck even the 3 guys could be gone for 2.49, who knows.

A TE that can run block like an OLine man and pass block like the best of them and can catch passes too and run at a very decent 4.64 for a 6'7" guy and has 11" soft catching hands... well they don't grow on trees.

Here I share a combine graph courtesy of nfldraftbuzz.com


That's my speech to convince you guys to take a look at him if available at 2.49

GREAT post Litos, but I was referring to 1.17 him being taken. I read a clip yesterday claiming (TE) he was a HOFer waiting to happen.

I used Creed in the 2nd showing it is possible to pass as even back then THIS OL was way way way worse than today. Even-so that they may pass on the top LT to gain the TE.

Obviously, I want the LT if there and over the HOF TE. In 2.32 or 2.49, rounds, I’d definitely be open to the TE.

Remember, we need to see the draft through what the STEELERS brass sees. I’ll say it again, I think the Brass has more faith in Dan Moore than most here do.


Salute the nation

 

[steelcan58]

Creed Humphrey was there in the second when they passed and took Muuuth.

Although less likely, it does go to show that players can fall.

It’s hard for us to see through the eyes of the team brass, I think they value Dan Moore mor than most here do and thus my fear of not even taking a LT.


Salute the nation

Ramon Foster still thinks highly of Moore on his podcast.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Ramon Foster still thinks highly of Moore on his podcast.

I pimped Dan Moore to start his rookie year, I love under-dogs. Moore has exceeded expectations and isn’t wasted pick. I just think he could relieve Oakorafor (keep as depth) and thrive.


Salute the nation

 

[SteelerSask2]

I pimped Dan Moore to start his rookie year, I love under-dogs. Moore has exceeded expectations and isn’t wasted pick. I just think he could relieve Oakorafor (keep as depth) and thrive.


Salute the nation

Yeah I think the Steelers don't see it same way we do. I just see sone guys who can either pass block or run block. Not many who can do both.

 

[SteelerFan448]

People get enamored with Washington's size AND athletic ability. If you watched this kid at the combine, it's easy to see that he has a world of potential beyond just his blocking prowess.

He hasn't shown enough receiving ability on the field to warrant an investment in the first round, IMO. Like Litos, I'd consider him at 49 because I think you need to build the offense around Pickett. That's how you win in this league right now.

 

[topseed]

He hasn't shown enough receiving ability on the field to warrant an investment in the first round, IMO. Like Litos, I'd consider him at 49 because I think you need to build the offense around Pickett. That's how you win in this league right now.

You're overlooking the fact that Washington was 17th in the country among tight ends with 454 yards, despite being the teammate of the nation's leader at the position, Brock Bowers. Yet he was the much better blocker, and averaged more yards per catch.

If Dalton Kincaid is first round material at tight end, then Washington is every bit as valuable. You just don't find many TEs with his type of athleticism who can also block.

 

[slashsteel]

You're overlooking the fact that Washington was 17th in the country among tight ends with 454 yards, despite being the teammate of the nation's leader at the position, Brock Bowers. Yet he was the much better blocker, and averaged more yards per catch.

If Dalton Kincaid is first round material at tight end, then Washington is every bit as valuable. You just don't find many TEs with his type of athleticism who can also block.

I liked his catch average and yardage total last season. His career TD tally is subpar interesting coming from from a tall athletic TE. His bowl game stretch was meh. I don't think there is enough there for 17. But that doesn't mean he can't be on their radar after that. With them re-signing Gentry and bringing in a AR I would say the odds have lessened.

 

[Super Dave]

I have a gut feeling that this draft for OT will resemble the 2008 draft- when there were 8 selections in the 1st round and none in the 2nd. 2nd round tackles were taken in the first.

Meaning- if you like an OT at 17- you should take him. I believe all 4 of the top ones will be gone. That will leave Jones and Harrison. Harrison is young. That is who I would target if they were to go OT. I doubt he will be there at #32

In 2008 , OT was a top need, but they were all gone by the time the Steelers selected and we ended up drafting Rashard MEndenall who we did not even vet thoroughly.

I do believe the Steelers like our current LT and believe if we had better and more consistent LG play that the LT would perform at a higher level. Which the offseason FA moves seem to indicate.

I would like an OT @ 17- I am preparing myself for the likelihood that one will not be available.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Looking at the Steelers needs based on pro days and in-house visits, the top four (in no particular order) are offensive tackle, defensive line, edge, and cornerback.

I'm not sure there's an immediate opening in the starting lineup, so where can we see upgrades for a year 1 starter:

Offensive Tackle - Both spots can be upgraded.
Defensive Line - I think there's room for one rookie starter, or key contrbutor.
Edge - No, strictly a rotational backup year 1.
Cornerback - Absolutely.

I think ILB could be upgraded, but with two new players and Robinson, it doesn't seem like a priority. Same thing with safety. It's a weak safety draft and I don't think there'll be a heavy investment in the position in terms of an early pick, unless Branch is the clear best player available.

QB, RB, WR, TE, G, C, EDGE are all set in stone, IMO.

 

[KStilley]

I could see them grabbing Sydney Brown the safety out of Illinois if he's there at 80. I definitely see an edge as one of our picks, we don't need a starter but we need an edge who will take allot of snaps resting Watt and Highsmith. Maybe they're going to use Leal to help there more than last year.

A guy who I really like who is kind of a tweener like Leal is Adabawore out out of North Western. He's only 6'2" but 282 with 27 reps, 4.49 forty, 34 inch arms, outstanding broad and shuttle numbers. Explosive dude, I know he's short for a DE and heavy for edge but I think he's going to make an immediate impact but probably for someone using a 4-3.

He's rising now, saw him mocked recently in round one.

 

[SteelerFan448]

I'm surprised the Steelers weren't lower. Pickens is the only naturally explosive athlete on offense, though with the proper scheme/plays DJ fits in that category as well.

 

[topseed]

I liked his catch average and yardage total last season. His career TD tally is subpar interesting coming from from a tall athletic TE. His bowl game stretch was meh. I don't think there is enough there for 17. But that doesn't mean he can't be on their radar after that. With them re-signing Gentry and bringing in a AR I would say the odds have lessened.

I wouldn't draft Washington at #17 either, but I'd have a lot of interest at #32 if he were still there. Especially if they get a quality tackle with their first pick.

 

[Troglodyte]

I think people get enamored with Washington's size. Dawand gives me a little concern about if his weight will be an issue. If he struggles with it he might not achieve his talent level. Been cooling a little on him at 32. I think value wise and how runs happen quickly with LTs that they should think long and hard if one is there at 17. Deep enough draft to get a corner in 2.

I’m not enamored with Washington’s size, I’m enamored with his blocking ability. If Moore (or whoever the LT is) is struggling. Washington could eliminate that problem while serving as a kind of tackle eligible player. He could be a real headache for the opposing DCs. I wouldn’t take him at 1.17, but anything after that would be fine with me especially if there’s a run on LTs early and the Steelers miss out.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

I keep going back and forth on what the steelers will do. It's a new regime so they may go in unexpected directions. My guess is this is the order they will be looking at for pick 17

1. Any of the top 3 CBs, Porter, Witherspoon, Gonzalez, or any other CB they have a 1st round grade. CB is such a huge need. They absolutely have to get one in their first 3 picks. If there's one available at pick 17, i think you have to pull the trigger and not mess around.

2. First round grade OT. If the CBs are off the board, it should mean an OT slipped and is available. They are committed to improving the OL. A true top line OT could be a final piece.

3. Edge rusher. If they don't like the CBs or OTs available, then Edge will almost certainly be the best player available. If Weidl is bringing that Eagles philosophy then you can't have enough pass rushers. They gave Watt the big money. They probably can't afford to pay Highsmith when he's a free agent. Get depth now and a new starter down the line

4. Brian Branch. He's versatile and can play slot CB.

5. Brian Bresee. Immediate depth and eventual replacement for Heyward.

6. Trade. I can see trade maybe being 4 on the list if they aren't high on Branch or Breese.