TMC was very kind to put this together for us. Just received it from him a few mins ago. Enjoy.
Stacking the Steelers Draft Board
It is very difficult to predict where teams project players and which teams value some players higher than others, but looking at the actions of the Steelers coaches and front office can often act as a strong indicator of where they desire to go in the draft. I will attempt to gauge the draft value and potential rankings for each of the Steelers draft picks. It should also be noted that there may be some guys ranked higher than draft sites have them rated, I believe that players like Artie Burns have similar characteristics to players like Bryant McFadden, whom the Steelers had rated as a first round player. So, I am attempting to gauge how they would set their board and if those players are not selected in the round they are placed, they would become top targets in the next round.
Round 1, Pick 25
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State-Apple is 6005, 199 pounds and ran a 4.40 forty with a solid shuttle time of 4.08. I think that Apple is being viewed as the cornerback that Justin Gilbert was believed to be and the Steelers were very high on Gilbert. I think Apple’s length and athleticism makes him the 2nd cornerback off the board but if he slips to the Steelers, you will likely see another run to the podium. Apple is raw, needs work, but the physical attributes cannot be denied. A young player with time to develop.
Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida-Hargreaves is 5104, 204 pounds and ran a 4.50 forty. He has excellent change of direction skills and is one of the more polished corners in the draft. He shows solid ability to play multiple schemes, will play physical, isn’t afraid to tackle, and just plays a hard-nosed type of football. I have Hargreaves as my #2 corner behind Ramsey and think the Steelers would love to see him as well, but in all likelihood, both Hargreaves and Apple will be long gone by pick #25.
Andrew Billings, NT, Baylor-Billings is 6005, 311 pounds. He ran a 5.05 forty at the combine but trimmed that number to a 4.96 forty at his Pro Day. He has excellent power. Billings set the Texas state meet record with a combined lift of 2,010 pounds (805 squat, 500 bench, 705 deadlift). He benched 225-31 times and was disappointed as he planned to break the combine record. He plays with that power on the field, showing the ability to go where he wants, when he wants. Rarely turned and moved, he has elite power in the middle reminiscent of Casey Hampton (who was 6012-314 pounds at the combine). Billings also shows enough burst to play passing downs. He is one of the better NT prospects I have watched since Dontari Poe came along.
William Jackson, CB, Houston-Jackson is 6003, 189 pounds. He has nice long speed, running a 4.37 forty at the combine, and this long speed shows on deeper routes as he has the ability to recover well. He does not have elite change of direction and is more of a straight line guy. He uses the sideline well and would be better kept on the edge, not trailing receivers across the middle or working the slot. As an edge guy, he can use the sideline to his advantage and this will allow him to concentrate on in breaking routes, allowing him to keep tighter coverage. Jackson is a willing tackler. I would compare Jackson to a faster version of Keenan Lewis and his floor is probably as a very good #2 cornerback, with his upside being a strong #1 corner. The Steelers are reportedly enamored with Jackson and if they love him enough, he could be the prize target.
Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson-Alexander is 5103, 190 pounds. He does not possess elite speed, turning a 4.49 forty and a 4.21 short shuttle, leading me to believe he is an outside corner first and may lack the change of direction desired to play the slot. With his height profile, that knocks him down the list for me. Alexander will step in and mix it up and although he has some similar characteristics to Hargreaves, Hargreaves brings an attitude along with better ball skills and change of direction. Alexander may become a solid corner in the NFL, but for my preferences, he falls behind the taller corners.
Shaq Lawson, OLB, Clemson-Lawson is 6025, 269 pounds. The Steelers have shown interest in Lawson and I think he is probably pretty high on their list of candidates. I also feel he is a guy they don’t expect to be there and he does not exactly fit the 3-4 version they once employed. This is somewhat of a defense in flux and could morph depending on the talent available. Lawson may fit more as a left outside linebacker and has some areas he needs to improve, but his ability to sniff out the quarterback cannot be denied. I see Lawson as a surprise slider and a safety net if other more attractive positions are gone.
A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama-Robinson is 6035, 307 pounds. I believe that the Steelers have some interest in Robinson, but I do not see him as a pure nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme. He lacks that pure brute strength needed and fits more as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme. He is more of a pass rusher than Billings and that might be attractive to the Steelers as he can give them some pressure from the base 3-4 defense and spell Hayward and Tuitt on passing downs. For me, he is a guy you entertain once other options are exhausted and I could see him sliding into the second round. For the Steelers, teammate Reed is a better choice, but Reed probably goes in the top 20.
Artie Burns, CB, Miami-Burns is 5117, 193 pounds. I mentioned earlier that Burns compares to Bryant McFadden, who the Steelers had rated as a first round prospect, and I think he does. Similar size. Similar workout numbers. Similar style of play. Both players are not afraid to mix it up. Both guys are steady, consistent, but not flashy. When I watch the film of Burns, I see a player that just goes out down after down and plays with good position, does his job, and lines back up and does it again. I do not see a great deal of splash plays from Burns, but I do not see a ton of plays where he blows assignments or allows his receiver to just get away from him. Steady, consistent, reliable.
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State-Decker is 6070, 310 pounds. The Steelers visited Decker and this is a due diligence type of visit. If Decker is here and more attractive players are gone, he gets in the mix. He has the body type, length, and athletic ability to be an attractive player, but there are players at other positions that offer similar value and I think he comes into play only if those guys are gone.
Round 2, Pick 27
Karl Joseph, SS, West Virginia-Joseph is 5095, 205 pounds. He has not worked out prior to the draft and it is unlikely he will. He suffered a knee injury his senior season that has caused him to slide on draft boards. Outside of Jalen Ramsey, who I see as a cornerback, Joseph is the top safety prospect in this draft. He is not afraid to arrive with bad intentions. He shows a solid feel for finding the football in the run game and will often get into the hole and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. He has a nice feel for coverage and will break on the football. He has the ability to run with some receivers. As a deeper safety, he times his arrival with the ball and will pound receivers to knock the ball free. The knock on Joseph is his height and injury, but there is little else to not like about his game.
Keanu Neal, SS, Florida-Neal is 6004, 211 pounds. He has risen quickly up draft boards due to his impressive workout numbers and solid film. While some rate him as a first round prospect, I don’t. I think he has solid film, but I just don’t know if he has the instincts to take his game to the next level. In much of his film, he often comes into the frame late. He has the athletic ability to patrol the deep middle and shows excellent range. He can play downhill in the run game and arrives with a thud. There is a lot to like about his style of play, but I wonder if he is asked to walk down on a tight end if he can handle the individual matchups that the Steelers sometimes ask of their safeties. I also wonder if he will adjust well to the speed of the NFL. Those questions make me apprehensive and for that reason, I like him a lot more in the 2nd round than I do in the 1st round.
Jalen Mills, CB/S, LSU=Mills is 6000, 191 pounds. He ran the forty at the combine in 4.61 seconds, but trimmed that number to 4.47 at his pro day. His shuttle time of 4.00 is excellent for a player his size and he has the numbers of an elite athlete. Mills had some issues with an assault charge a few seasons ago that could dampen his draft status, but outside of Ramsey, he may be the best cornerback/safety prospect in this draft. He is the type of player that should get a look at cornerback, where he played exceptionally well at the senior bowl, before being tried at safety. He has solid potential at either position and could be a fringe first round pick. With his past character issues, I think the second round is where value overcomes those issues for the Steelers.
Javon Hargrave, DT, SC State-Hargrave is 6013, 309 pounds. This might be a little rich for some people, but I believe that where Hargrave gets drafted will surprise a lot of people. He has a thick lower body and shows excellent power. He has strong legs and drives through blockers. He has solid upper body strength as well and uses his hands well as a pass rusher. Hargrave can be a difficult guy for blockers to get locked onto and when he gets some space, he can be a handful. I think he needs to improve his ability to hold the point and learn how to put that powerful lower body to use when facing the double team. Once he learns to grow roots, he could become a strong interior run stuffer that offers excellent pass rush from the inside. I believe his pass rush ability is solid enough at this point to work into the rotation with Tuitt and Hayward on passing downs, which is an attractive bonus in the second round.
Will Redmond, CB, Miss State-Redmond is 5106, 182 pounds. He does not have any workout numbers due to a knee injury that cut his senior season short, but if not for the injury, he could easily be in the mix for the Steelers at #25. Redmond does not shy away from physical contact and is not afraid to get in the face of receivers. On film, he appears to have solid change of direction and long speed. He shows the ability to mirror receivers and can make big plays. He was coming on strong as a senior and could have easily worked his way into the conversation for a top 20 selection. He was coached at Mississippi State by former Steeler DeShea Townsend, and that might mean something. Of course, Townsend is now the LeBeau at Tennessee, and that could mean they go after him prior to the Steelers selection in the 2nd round. If not for the injury, he is a guy I would have a lot higher.
Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech-Butler is 6035, 323 pounds. He is a player that others like a lot more than I do. He has some quickness off the snap and works into gaps well. He can be elusive and difficult for blockers to handle in space, but he does not play with power and can be turned and driven backwards. I think he lacks technique and core power to be an interior run stopper and he can really struggle with double teams. It is difficult to place him behind guys like Nkemdiche because they have similar weaknesses and Butler appears to be closer to starting as a nose tackle, but if Nkemdiche were not a character issue, he is a far better player.
Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss-Nkemdiche is 6034, 294 pounds. He is not a guy that shows elite power as a run stopper, but when he is bringing his “A” game, he is a handful for any blocker. He truly fits better as a defensive end in the Steelers 3-4 scheme, but he has some potential to be an interior guy as well. I see him more in the mold of Kimo Von Oelhoffen, a guy that can play nose tackle, but is better as an end. His character issues and general aura of off-the-wall behavior has to give you pause. The one thing that is evident, he can be a disruptive player when he wants to be. Big boom or bust potential in a guy that will either make a GM look brilliant or stupid.
Deon Bush, S, Miami (FL)-Bush is 6003, 199 pounds. He ran a 4.64 at the combine but did not complete the workout due to a strained calf muscle. He ran a 4.52 forty at his pro day and his other workout numbers were excellent. He has solid size and athletic characteristics for a safety. He will arrive with a pop and does a solid job in the run game. He does not have great change of direction and does not always read and react to plays quickly enough. He is still developing his overall feel for the game, but his athleticism and physical traits are likely to get him selected higher than he should. His film fits a 3rd or 4th round pick, but in a draft filled with safeties, an early run on the position could lead to a guy like Bush being over-drafted by a desperate team.
I think the Steelers have two ideal routes for the early stages of this draft. If they see Billings fall to them, ideally they will nab Billings in the first and add a defensive back in the second, maybe Karl Joseph. I would then expect them to go to the corner or safety spot in the third and potentially in the fourth as well. If Billings is gone, then cornerback is the way I see them going, maybe Jackson in the first and coming back to Hargraves from SC State in the
Stacking the Steelers Draft Board
It is very difficult to predict where teams project players and which teams value some players higher than others, but looking at the actions of the Steelers coaches and front office can often act as a strong indicator of where they desire to go in the draft. I will attempt to gauge the draft value and potential rankings for each of the Steelers draft picks. It should also be noted that there may be some guys ranked higher than draft sites have them rated, I believe that players like Artie Burns have similar characteristics to players like Bryant McFadden, whom the Steelers had rated as a first round player. So, I am attempting to gauge how they would set their board and if those players are not selected in the round they are placed, they would become top targets in the next round.
Round 1, Pick 25
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State-Apple is 6005, 199 pounds and ran a 4.40 forty with a solid shuttle time of 4.08. I think that Apple is being viewed as the cornerback that Justin Gilbert was believed to be and the Steelers were very high on Gilbert. I think Apple’s length and athleticism makes him the 2nd cornerback off the board but if he slips to the Steelers, you will likely see another run to the podium. Apple is raw, needs work, but the physical attributes cannot be denied. A young player with time to develop.
Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida-Hargreaves is 5104, 204 pounds and ran a 4.50 forty. He has excellent change of direction skills and is one of the more polished corners in the draft. He shows solid ability to play multiple schemes, will play physical, isn’t afraid to tackle, and just plays a hard-nosed type of football. I have Hargreaves as my #2 corner behind Ramsey and think the Steelers would love to see him as well, but in all likelihood, both Hargreaves and Apple will be long gone by pick #25.
Andrew Billings, NT, Baylor-Billings is 6005, 311 pounds. He ran a 5.05 forty at the combine but trimmed that number to a 4.96 forty at his Pro Day. He has excellent power. Billings set the Texas state meet record with a combined lift of 2,010 pounds (805 squat, 500 bench, 705 deadlift). He benched 225-31 times and was disappointed as he planned to break the combine record. He plays with that power on the field, showing the ability to go where he wants, when he wants. Rarely turned and moved, he has elite power in the middle reminiscent of Casey Hampton (who was 6012-314 pounds at the combine). Billings also shows enough burst to play passing downs. He is one of the better NT prospects I have watched since Dontari Poe came along.
William Jackson, CB, Houston-Jackson is 6003, 189 pounds. He has nice long speed, running a 4.37 forty at the combine, and this long speed shows on deeper routes as he has the ability to recover well. He does not have elite change of direction and is more of a straight line guy. He uses the sideline well and would be better kept on the edge, not trailing receivers across the middle or working the slot. As an edge guy, he can use the sideline to his advantage and this will allow him to concentrate on in breaking routes, allowing him to keep tighter coverage. Jackson is a willing tackler. I would compare Jackson to a faster version of Keenan Lewis and his floor is probably as a very good #2 cornerback, with his upside being a strong #1 corner. The Steelers are reportedly enamored with Jackson and if they love him enough, he could be the prize target.
Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson-Alexander is 5103, 190 pounds. He does not possess elite speed, turning a 4.49 forty and a 4.21 short shuttle, leading me to believe he is an outside corner first and may lack the change of direction desired to play the slot. With his height profile, that knocks him down the list for me. Alexander will step in and mix it up and although he has some similar characteristics to Hargreaves, Hargreaves brings an attitude along with better ball skills and change of direction. Alexander may become a solid corner in the NFL, but for my preferences, he falls behind the taller corners.
Shaq Lawson, OLB, Clemson-Lawson is 6025, 269 pounds. The Steelers have shown interest in Lawson and I think he is probably pretty high on their list of candidates. I also feel he is a guy they don’t expect to be there and he does not exactly fit the 3-4 version they once employed. This is somewhat of a defense in flux and could morph depending on the talent available. Lawson may fit more as a left outside linebacker and has some areas he needs to improve, but his ability to sniff out the quarterback cannot be denied. I see Lawson as a surprise slider and a safety net if other more attractive positions are gone.
A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama-Robinson is 6035, 307 pounds. I believe that the Steelers have some interest in Robinson, but I do not see him as a pure nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme. He lacks that pure brute strength needed and fits more as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme. He is more of a pass rusher than Billings and that might be attractive to the Steelers as he can give them some pressure from the base 3-4 defense and spell Hayward and Tuitt on passing downs. For me, he is a guy you entertain once other options are exhausted and I could see him sliding into the second round. For the Steelers, teammate Reed is a better choice, but Reed probably goes in the top 20.
Artie Burns, CB, Miami-Burns is 5117, 193 pounds. I mentioned earlier that Burns compares to Bryant McFadden, who the Steelers had rated as a first round prospect, and I think he does. Similar size. Similar workout numbers. Similar style of play. Both players are not afraid to mix it up. Both guys are steady, consistent, but not flashy. When I watch the film of Burns, I see a player that just goes out down after down and plays with good position, does his job, and lines back up and does it again. I do not see a great deal of splash plays from Burns, but I do not see a ton of plays where he blows assignments or allows his receiver to just get away from him. Steady, consistent, reliable.
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State-Decker is 6070, 310 pounds. The Steelers visited Decker and this is a due diligence type of visit. If Decker is here and more attractive players are gone, he gets in the mix. He has the body type, length, and athletic ability to be an attractive player, but there are players at other positions that offer similar value and I think he comes into play only if those guys are gone.
Round 2, Pick 27
Karl Joseph, SS, West Virginia-Joseph is 5095, 205 pounds. He has not worked out prior to the draft and it is unlikely he will. He suffered a knee injury his senior season that has caused him to slide on draft boards. Outside of Jalen Ramsey, who I see as a cornerback, Joseph is the top safety prospect in this draft. He is not afraid to arrive with bad intentions. He shows a solid feel for finding the football in the run game and will often get into the hole and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. He has a nice feel for coverage and will break on the football. He has the ability to run with some receivers. As a deeper safety, he times his arrival with the ball and will pound receivers to knock the ball free. The knock on Joseph is his height and injury, but there is little else to not like about his game.
Keanu Neal, SS, Florida-Neal is 6004, 211 pounds. He has risen quickly up draft boards due to his impressive workout numbers and solid film. While some rate him as a first round prospect, I don’t. I think he has solid film, but I just don’t know if he has the instincts to take his game to the next level. In much of his film, he often comes into the frame late. He has the athletic ability to patrol the deep middle and shows excellent range. He can play downhill in the run game and arrives with a thud. There is a lot to like about his style of play, but I wonder if he is asked to walk down on a tight end if he can handle the individual matchups that the Steelers sometimes ask of their safeties. I also wonder if he will adjust well to the speed of the NFL. Those questions make me apprehensive and for that reason, I like him a lot more in the 2nd round than I do in the 1st round.
Jalen Mills, CB/S, LSU=Mills is 6000, 191 pounds. He ran the forty at the combine in 4.61 seconds, but trimmed that number to 4.47 at his pro day. His shuttle time of 4.00 is excellent for a player his size and he has the numbers of an elite athlete. Mills had some issues with an assault charge a few seasons ago that could dampen his draft status, but outside of Ramsey, he may be the best cornerback/safety prospect in this draft. He is the type of player that should get a look at cornerback, where he played exceptionally well at the senior bowl, before being tried at safety. He has solid potential at either position and could be a fringe first round pick. With his past character issues, I think the second round is where value overcomes those issues for the Steelers.
Javon Hargrave, DT, SC State-Hargrave is 6013, 309 pounds. This might be a little rich for some people, but I believe that where Hargrave gets drafted will surprise a lot of people. He has a thick lower body and shows excellent power. He has strong legs and drives through blockers. He has solid upper body strength as well and uses his hands well as a pass rusher. Hargrave can be a difficult guy for blockers to get locked onto and when he gets some space, he can be a handful. I think he needs to improve his ability to hold the point and learn how to put that powerful lower body to use when facing the double team. Once he learns to grow roots, he could become a strong interior run stuffer that offers excellent pass rush from the inside. I believe his pass rush ability is solid enough at this point to work into the rotation with Tuitt and Hayward on passing downs, which is an attractive bonus in the second round.
Will Redmond, CB, Miss State-Redmond is 5106, 182 pounds. He does not have any workout numbers due to a knee injury that cut his senior season short, but if not for the injury, he could easily be in the mix for the Steelers at #25. Redmond does not shy away from physical contact and is not afraid to get in the face of receivers. On film, he appears to have solid change of direction and long speed. He shows the ability to mirror receivers and can make big plays. He was coming on strong as a senior and could have easily worked his way into the conversation for a top 20 selection. He was coached at Mississippi State by former Steeler DeShea Townsend, and that might mean something. Of course, Townsend is now the LeBeau at Tennessee, and that could mean they go after him prior to the Steelers selection in the 2nd round. If not for the injury, he is a guy I would have a lot higher.
Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech-Butler is 6035, 323 pounds. He is a player that others like a lot more than I do. He has some quickness off the snap and works into gaps well. He can be elusive and difficult for blockers to handle in space, but he does not play with power and can be turned and driven backwards. I think he lacks technique and core power to be an interior run stopper and he can really struggle with double teams. It is difficult to place him behind guys like Nkemdiche because they have similar weaknesses and Butler appears to be closer to starting as a nose tackle, but if Nkemdiche were not a character issue, he is a far better player.
Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss-Nkemdiche is 6034, 294 pounds. He is not a guy that shows elite power as a run stopper, but when he is bringing his “A” game, he is a handful for any blocker. He truly fits better as a defensive end in the Steelers 3-4 scheme, but he has some potential to be an interior guy as well. I see him more in the mold of Kimo Von Oelhoffen, a guy that can play nose tackle, but is better as an end. His character issues and general aura of off-the-wall behavior has to give you pause. The one thing that is evident, he can be a disruptive player when he wants to be. Big boom or bust potential in a guy that will either make a GM look brilliant or stupid.
Deon Bush, S, Miami (FL)-Bush is 6003, 199 pounds. He ran a 4.64 at the combine but did not complete the workout due to a strained calf muscle. He ran a 4.52 forty at his pro day and his other workout numbers were excellent. He has solid size and athletic characteristics for a safety. He will arrive with a pop and does a solid job in the run game. He does not have great change of direction and does not always read and react to plays quickly enough. He is still developing his overall feel for the game, but his athleticism and physical traits are likely to get him selected higher than he should. His film fits a 3rd or 4th round pick, but in a draft filled with safeties, an early run on the position could lead to a guy like Bush being over-drafted by a desperate team.
I think the Steelers have two ideal routes for the early stages of this draft. If they see Billings fall to them, ideally they will nab Billings in the first and add a defensive back in the second, maybe Karl Joseph. I would then expect them to go to the corner or safety spot in the third and potentially in the fourth as well. If Billings is gone, then cornerback is the way I see them going, maybe Jackson in the first and coming back to Hargraves from SC State in the
