I don't think Trump will win.
I think his Nationalism message has changed the Republican party forever. The next Nationalist candidate (and it will start on local, state and congressional elections in 2018) to come along and run for president won't have Trump's baggage and won't stick his foot in his mouth as often.
It will be 2020 that you will potentially see the ripple effects of his presidential run actually get into the White House. I truly believe that the Nationalist message is a direct result of the Europeination of the democratic party and the continued demagoguery of white, christian america by the liberal and educational elite. For the entire Obama presidency, all causes of racial injustice, foreign policy failures, social welfare, religious differences and economic inequality (both past and present) is being dumped ENTIRELY at the feet of white America. To say any minority, ever in time, contributes to any social, economic, racial, religious or foreign disorder is to be called racist, persecuted in social media and labeled uneducated. White America is the problem, not the solution, according to so many left-leaning experts now that the growing backlash against it has grasped onto a candidate even as unworthy and questionable as Donald Trump, just because he's the only one saying it.
Trump's message that White America shouldn't feel ashamed and that America is still a great, free, powerful and opportunistic country is resonating.
President Obama is going to have a State of the Union that isn't going to praise any of these things. He's going to praise himself and big government. He's not going to thank Americans for hanging tough and pinching pennies while Government spun their wheels in ineptitude (possibly helping, possibly not). Time cured the economy, not some great government mandate or program. He's going to tell us how Obamacare has provided healthcare to millions while never mentioning the cost per person (which is far exceeding his estimates and rising). He's going to tell us how great his Iran deal while we still don't know exactly what is going on and numerous sanctions are still be broken (as we speak). He's going to tell us all the jobs he's created while failing to mention stagnate wages or a whole class of "part-time" 30-hour workers that he's created with his policies and taxes on small business. He's going to tell us how he withdrew 90% of ground forces out of the Middle East but failing to tell us the millions that have been killed, displaced and living under terror because we left.
Again, Trump is a poor messenger, and probably won't get elected because of it. But the message and what it says is a wave that I don't think ends in 2016.
For those that say this Nationalist message is no different than all the others in history based on fear and racism, I say this could be different with the right candidate. If the message is humane and based in sound, legal policies, there is no reason to believe it can't succeed on a national platform and win in swing states. There is nothing racist about border control. There is nothing racist about improving and growing LEGAL immigration. There is nothing racist about mistrust/disagreement of Islamic Sharia and its use as a basis in governance. There is nothing racist about wanting to revamp a failed welfare state even if 80% of welfare recipients are African-American. There is nothing racist about persecuting gun violence in cities when 80% of gun violence in cities is black-on-black.
Someone has to stand up on these issues and continue Donald Trump's message. It just can't be Donald Trump (and it can't be Ted Cruz either).