Two weeks left playoff scenarios

[Confluence]

Probabilities are not stats....they are an overlay of someone's opinion/system on possible outcomes; cleared biased by assumptions and error prone for incorrect allocations of risk.

Sask, you could issue your probabilities, according to whatever you deem ok, and if someone publishes your work, others would ask you what you mean.

Garbage in, garbage out

 

[TimesHaveChanged]

Baltimore will want to stomp faces in final week no matter what. Harbaugh does not forget. Nothing they'd love more than putting an official start to fishing season for us again

 

[SteelerSask2]

Like in the year the Steelers last made the playoffs I believe they had a 10 percent or less chance to make playoffs. I assumed that was made up of them winning and the requirement of the other teams to lose. Not by strength of schedule.

 

[SteelerSask2]

I guess it will become clear if they win today based upon .....if the steelers win and .....Yada Yada.

 

[SteelerFan448]

I think it i because of week 18 we hve the harder matchup. that i why stats can lie sometime.

That's all it is. The Steelers have a very good chance of making it if they win out.

 

[Bluesteel]

That's all it is. The Steelers have a very good chance of making it if they win out.

Yes, it seems to be influenced primarily on strength of opponent, with no consideration to possibility of Ravens sitting players, if they’ve locked up 1 seed?

Steelers best path requires they win out, with Ravens beating Fins making that most possible. If they do win out, their best path would most require the Jags to split last 2, vs. Panthers & @ Titans. If that happens, doesn’t matter if one of Colts, Texans win out, because one can’t, being they meet next week. If Jags win out, Steelers need Colts/Texans to both drop one of their remaining 2.

Bungles need a lot more help if they & Steelers win out, but opponent winning percentage gives them the more likely possibility of doing it.

Seattle is hanging on for a playoff spot, with Steelers historical west coast struggles and an always difficult venue… it’s a must win, that is most difficult situation!

 

[Bluesteel]

…Steelers have a path to playoffs, even with a loss today, but that too requires the Jags to split their last 2, and bungles splitting.

 

[BLITZ]

Man I am torn on wanting the Steelers to make the play offset and losing out. I am sure at game time I will be wanting a win

 

[MeanJim]

I don't even want the Steelers in the playoff unless they show they deserve it these last 2 games with convincing wins. That requires Miami coming back and beating the ravens today, so the ravens will have something to play for last week.

I don't want a below average Steeler team in the playoffs because of a few lucky early season wins and a win against a ravens team with everyone "opting out".

That would just get Tomlin a contract extension and continued hopelessness for any near-future greatness.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Zero help today. Zero. I think it's gonna be done at 7pm. Eastern.

 

[SteveA]

**** off.

Yeah…

 

[SteelerSask2]

News flash. Three weeks after the Season they are extending Mike Tomlin anyhow.

 

[MeanJim]

News flash. Three weeks after the Season they are extending Mike Tomlin anyhow.

Yeah, I know. It's depressing.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Yeah, I know. It's depressing.

And we will all be back here same time roughly same position saying wtf would it take.

 

[madinsomniac]

Baltimore will want to stomp faces in final week no matter what. Harbaugh does not forget. Nothing they'd love more than putting an official start to fishing season for us again

Baltimore is 1-6 vs us the past few years

 

[Turd Ferguson]

I think it comes down to beating the Ravens and Miami beating the Bills.

 

[CoolieMan]

I think it comes down to beating the Ravens and Miami beating the Bills.

or the titans beating the jags

I believe the winner of the dolphins/bills game is the 2 seed and the loser is the 6th seed so they have something to play for

 

[madinsomniac]

I think it comes down to beating the Ravens and Miami beating the Bills.

I think we have three ways in.

All three require a win over the Ravens…

Right now its
6. Bills at 10-6
7. Indy at 9-7
8. Houston at 9-7
9. Steelers at 9-7

Houston and Indy play each other. So scenario 1.. the least likely, is they Tie.. they both end up 9-7-1 and we leapfrog them…

2. The most likely though still low chance, Is the Bills lose to Miami. We win the tiebreakers vs them if it goes down like that

The third is Jacksonville loses vs the Titans… then the indy/houston winner takes that division and we jump over the two losing teams

 

[ZonaBurgh]

or the titans beating the jags

I believe the winner of the dolphins/bills game is the 2 seed and the loser is the 6th seed so they have something to play for

what if the Texans and Colts tie?

Dolphins and Titans are both at home, so......

 

[SteelerFan448]

or the titans beating the jags

I believe the winner of the dolphins/bills game is the 2 seed and the loser is the 6th seed so they have something to play for

Yep, absolutely huge game between the Dolphins and Bills in terms of seeding. Home field in the first round and potentially a second home game if Baltimore loses.

 

[madinsomniac]

Bear in mind that
A.) Miami had some major injuries in that Ravens game and probably will be very handicapped vs tge Bills, and
B.) The Ravens seem convinced that not playing for two weeks is not a good plan.. so they probably are not going to rest starters

 

[CoolieMan]

what if the Texans and Colts tie?

the Steeers are in if they win

the bills and jags games wouldn't matter

 

[str8liner]

Every year the same damn thing hoping someone else helps us. Always a wing and a prayer last game of the year.

At least Mikey T got Rudolph should have been the number 2 figured out to save his never losing season streak.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Texans vs.Colts unless tie one wins and has tie breaker. What is the path?

 

[SteelerFan448]

I believe it will take:

Steelers win

Bills lose to Dolphins OR Jaguars lose to Titans OR Colts and Texans tie