Ben's leaving, it's just a matter of how soon. If the Patriots can draft Garrapolo in the 2nd three years ago, I think the Steelers can draft a QB in the 2nd (or 1st) this year. And the pick might pay off even before Ben leaves.
And that is fine for you to think that. I do not agree. I went back and took a look at every QB draft since 2000 and while there were some quality QBs taken outside the first round, I found that those quality players usually come in drafts where there is talent at the top, meaning either QBs taken #1 overall or there are several quality prospects taken in the first round. Here is what I found....
In 2000, the infamous Tom Brady draft, Tom Brady and Marc Bulger were taken in the 6th round, both ended up with better careers than any other QB in the draft, including first round pick Chad Pennington. It is the single anomaly in the trends.
In 2001, Drew Brees was taken 32nd overall, which was at the top of the 2nd round, Mike Vick was the only 1st round QB taken #1 overall. The Texans came into the league the following season giving 32 teams.
In 2002, David Carr was taken #1 and Joey Harrington #3, Josh McCown and David Garrard were taken in the 3rd/4th and both started over 60 games.
In 2003, the best QB taken outside the first round was Chris Simms.
In 2004, the Eli, Ben, Rivers draft, Matt Schaub was taken in the 3rd and he started 92 games.
In 2005, this was the Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (all first round) draft, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick were drafted in the 4th, 7th, 7th.
In 2006, Vince Young and Jay Cutler were the only QBs to start more than 35 games. Both taken in the first.
In 2007, no QB started more than 33 games.
In 2008, Matt Ryan and Flacco were taken in the first, Chad Henne was the best QB taken after that (2nd round) and he started 52 games. Ryan was taken 3rd overall, no #1 QB in the draft.
In 2009, no QB started taken outside the first started more than 10 games.
In 2010, Sam Bradford was drafted #1 overall, no QB taken after him started more than Colt McCoy's 25 games.
In 2011, four QBs went in the first with Cam Newton leading the way (#1 overall), it produced Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, and Tyrod Taylor.
In 2012, Andrew Luck draft, RGIII, also produced Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and there was also Nick Foles and Brock Osweiler.
In 2013, No QB started more than 30 games, top QB was EJ Manuel. Geno Smith has the most starts. Mike Glennon is 2nd.
In 2014, this draft produced Derek Carr in the 2nd, also had Teddy Bridgewater at #32. This is the draft Garoppolo was taken and Blake Bortles as the top QB pick at #3 with 3 first round QBs. Also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, and Zack Mettenberger. So, pretty decent draft overall.
In 2015, Winston and Mariota went 1/2. Trevor Siemian went in the 7th. Other than that, nothing.
In 2016, The Dak Prescott draft. It also had Connor Cook, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett, and Christian Hackenberg taken outside the first. It had QBs go 1/2 and 3 go in the first round.
So, this leads me to believe this, if you desire to find a QB outside of the first round, it has to be a draft that has a strong group near the top, potentially QBs that go 1/2 in the first OR 3/4 QBs drafted in the first round that forces talented QBs down into the later rounds. And, the drafts show that there are good years and horrific years. If people feel this is a strong QB draft and there is quality at the top end that allows for talent to be found in the middle or later rounds, okay.
I don't share that opinion. Right now, people think there is a possibility that the top QB does not go inside the top 2 and the 3rd best QB might not even go in the first round....that isn't a strong QB draft. I get the gamble of drafting a QB. I'd rather do it in a draft that has blackjack odds than in one where it is roulette. This is roulette.
