2017 NFL Draft Q&A

[TMC]

But not high 1st round picks. The Steelers could draft the first QB this year and he could turn out to be the next Rodgers or Bridgewater. I don't see how the QB class at the top could have any causal relationship with QBs drafted later on which seems to be what you are suggesting.

Why wouldn't it? In every draft, there are QB needy teams. Every draft. In drafts with elite talent at the top, teams draft them, and for each team drafting a QB, it eliminates the need for them to draft one in the consecutive rounds. In essence, it reduces the number of teams that will draft QBs. In fact, in QB rich drafts, better talent can be pushed down because the needy teams are filling their need early and those later QBs are usually being drafted solely on merit.

But, in drafts that are weaker, lesser talent will be taken higher because those QB needy teams have to gamble on players that might not go as high based solely on merit. If this draft had Goff, Wentz, Paxton, etc in it, would Trubisky, Watson, and Kizer even be considered first round QBs? Would any of them be drafted ahead of the top three from last year? It is very unlikely. So, in a draft that is stronger at the top, those players would almost always slide into rounds where their talent actually matched the area where they are selected.

The strength of a draft class has everything to do with how talent is distributed throughout a draft. It is very similar to the OL class this year, just read where one writer stated that teams might draft the top 3 OTs and top OG much higher than they should because of the drop off behind that group. They are afraid if they don't get their player early, they won't get a quality player. Probably still won't stop them from drafting a guy later if the need is still there, but strength of position plays a great part.

As for the first QB taken this year being equal to Bridgewater or Rodgers, in both cases, three QBs went in the first round. Not elite, but fairly strong draft classes. Alex Smith went #1 overall. Rodgers went 24th, Jason Campbell went 25th. That draft contained Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Derek Anderson. So, while the QB taken first this year could, maybe be Rodgers, they could also be Campbell. It should also be noted that the Packers did not NEED Rodgers, they had Farve, who played several more seasons. They drafted value. In the Bridgewater draft, he was the 3rd QB taken, shortly after Johnny Manzeil. Blake Bortles went first. Derek Carr went right after him, then Garopolo. Draft also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Tajh Boyd. Again, while it is easy to point towards Bridgewater or Carr, could be Logan Thomas or Manziel just as easily. In fact, statistics show, it is more likely.

This isn't a great QB draft. One of the reasons why teams are flying these QBs around the country is so they can try to find one worth taking a risk on. No clear cut #1 QB. No clear number of guys expected to go in the first. Could see none, might see 1 or 2, could go as many as 5. Why? Teams are desperate. I just hope we are not one of them.

 

[F83]

Get a pass rusher at 32 and based on the quality and depth left at the bottom if rnd 2 Mahomes could be in play, or Webb, with our Comp pick someone like Kaaya could be im play. Right now I am concerned with how pass rushers Mccinley and Charlton could be napped in the middle as I think the Saints will take Charlton to play Opposite of Jordan in a effort to have a penetrating 3-4, Mccinley I see the Colts possibly taking if they don't go RB, they are a org that for ever have neglected the D till the latter half to add weapons for the O, and yes Gore is on his last tire, I am surprised they haven't made push for AP.
If Taco, Mckinley are gone, and somehow Reddick falls, I jump on him as he can do everything if not I really think hard between Harris and Cunningham, harris is a speed rusher but to start lacks the power to bullrush, Cunningham is a guy who has good size and will make plays all over blast the run, drop back , a complete 3 down LB
round 1 Cunningham
round 2 CB King/Witherspoon/Tankersley
3 QB WEbb
3 comp DT/DE Jhonson
4 edge

 

[Steelerfan81]

But not high 1st round picks. The Steelers could draft the first QB this year and he could turn out to be the next Rodgers or Bridgewater. I don't see how the QB class at the top could have any causal relationship with QBs drafted later on which seems to be what you are suggesting.

These guys would be 2-3 round picks if there were any high end talented QBs coming out.

 

[Troglodyte]

Why wouldn't it? In every draft, there are QB needy teams. Every draft. In drafts with elite talent at the top, teams draft them, and for each team drafting a QB, it eliminates the need for them to draft one in the consecutive rounds. In essence, it reduces the number of teams that will draft QBs. In fact, in QB rich drafts, better talent can be pushed down because the needy teams are filling their need early and those later QBs are usually being drafted solely on merit.

But, in drafts that are weaker, lesser talent will be taken higher because those QB needy teams have to gamble on players that might not go as high based solely on merit. If this draft had Goff, Wentz, Paxton, etc in it, would Trubisky, Watson, and Kizer even be considered first round QBs? Would any of them be drafted ahead of the top three from last year? It is very unlikely. So, in a draft that is stronger at the top, those players would almost always slide into rounds where their talent actually matched the area where they are selected.

The strength of a draft class has everything to do with how talent is distributed throughout a draft. It is very similar to the OL class this year, just read where one writer stated that teams might draft the top 3 OTs and top OG much higher than they should because of the drop off behind that group. They are afraid if they don't get their player early, they won't get a quality player. Probably still won't stop them from drafting a guy later if the need is still there, but strength of position plays a great part.

As for the first QB taken this year being equal to Bridgewater or Rodgers, in both cases, three QBs went in the first round. Not elite, but fairly strong draft classes. Alex Smith went #1 overall. Rodgers went 24th, Jason Campbell went 25th. That draft contained Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Derek Anderson. So, while the QB taken first this year could, maybe be Rodgers, they could also be Campbell. It should also be noted that the Packers did not NEED Rodgers, they had Farve, who played several more seasons. They drafted value. In the Bridgewater draft, he was the 3rd QB taken, shortly after Johnny Manzeil. Blake Bortles went first. Derek Carr went right after him, then Garopolo. Draft also had Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Tajh Boyd. Again, while it is easy to point towards Bridgewater or Carr, could be Logan Thomas or Manziel just as easily. In fact, statistics show, it is more likely.

This isn't a great QB draft. One of the reasons why teams are flying these QBs around the country is so they can try to find one worth taking a risk on. No clear cut #1 QB. No clear number of guys expected to go in the first. Could see none, might see 1 or 2, could go as many as 5. Why? Teams are desperate. I just hope we are not one of them.

But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.

 

[ark steel]

I think del and I showed, in another thread, from profootballrefence.com, that most QBs with decent AVs were drafted in rounds 1 or 2. Maybe it went to 3rd round, but I don't think so.

 

[deljzc]

Here is the article again from Football Outsiders on QB's drafted since 1994.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

They have since added another article on undrafted QB's (since Romo retired):

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/history-undrafted-nfl-quarterbacks

 

[slashsteel]

But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.

And if the Steelers feel there is such a player you will see them draft them. If available.

Doesn't change manys views on this being a weak QB draft.

BPA is the approach

and how it should be

and if that approach doesn't bring in a QB

it is what it is

 

[TMC]

But the QB position isnt just another position of potential need. You're right that in every draft there are QB needy and desperate teams... like 25 or more of them... either they know they don't have a franchise QB or like the Steelers, have one with a rapidly approaching expiration date. I don't think the Redskins would have reached for Kirk Cousins if RG3 hadn't existed making him a high first round pick. They took both knowing that Pedigree is often overrated, projections are often just wrong and QB is critical.

It sounds like you're convinced no QB in this draft taken in the late 1st round or later will ever amount to much. I hope the Steelers don't pass on a Marino or Brees for even a pro-bowler at any other position.

The Redskins did not reach for Kirk Cousins. Here are the draft rankings for QBs from nfl.com for that draft:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position

Cousins was rated the 6th best QB in that draft behind Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden, and Osweiler. He was considered a 2nd-3rd round prospect. Yet, he wasn't taken in the 2nd. He was not even taken in the 3rd. Russell Wilson went ahead of him as did Nick Foles. He fell to the 4th round where the Redskins picked him. They drafted value, not need with Cousins. In fact, they had filled their need with the 2nd overall pick in the draft. If the Redskins had not taken RGIII in the first, odds are they would have chosen Cousins much higher.

It is funny you state there are 25 QB needy teams and yet, every draft, about a dozen QBs are taken and yet, every draft, still 25 QB needy teams. You would think if finding starting quality QBs outside the top 50 picks were easy and developing those guys happened, it would be much less than 25 QB needy teams. Yet, teams fail WAY more than they succeed with those QB decisions and the majority of the starting QBs come from selections made in the first round.

It just doesn't happen like that. The Skins had just drafted their franchise QB, had scouted Cousins, and he fell in their lap in the 4th. They took value. Just like Dallas did last year with Prescott. They thought he was talented and spent a 4th on him.

 

[TMC]

I'll also add this, are we looking to put players around Ben to win now or is his career over? If we are drafting a QB in the top 64 picks, to me, that is stating we are more worried about preparing for life after Ben than we are winning with him. If that is the case, I'm not so sure why everyone is sweating him retiring. Might as well let him go, draft position players, start Landry Jones, and be picking in the top 15 next year. Draft your QB next season, fill out the roster with the remaining selections, have Ben free up more cap space, and build around your rookie QB that was drafted in a better QB draft with a higher selection which should equal a better player. Either we are trying to put another ring on Ben's finger or we he is done. I really don't want to spend draft picks trying to hedge my bets on both scenarios.

As I have stated before, Ben just turned 35. He has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this year. His yearly salary in each season is $12M with a $5M roster bonus each season, so that is $17M per season. So, if he retires, he leaves $17M on the table each year. And, because of the Barry Sanders rule, if he fails to play out his contract, the Steelers can go after the amount of pro-rated signing bonus for those two seasons, which is $6.2M per season. In essence, if Ben retires after the 2017 season, he forfeits $34M in salary/bonus and could be asked to return $12.4M for a total lost compensation of $46.4M. Do you really think he is leaving that on the table? If he retires after the 2018 seasons, he gives up $17M in salary and could be asked to return $6.2M in bonus money for a total of $23.2M in lost compensation.

I'm not sure how many numbers are to the right of the 6 zeros in Ben's bank account, but when you start slicing of tens of millions of dollars from that number, it doesn't look so good. And, I don't see him as a guy that look to stick in the booth after his career. So, he better get his while he can. I am almost certain Ben plays out this contract. He could retire when it is over, but he sees this one through. And, if the Steelers draft well this year, fill out the defense where this team has a chance to win a Super Bowl or DOES win a Super Bowl between now and the end of his contract, don't be surprised to see him add additional years to see if they can continue to win.

 

[Troglodyte]

I'll also add this, are we looking to put players around Ben to win now or is his career over? If we are drafting a QB in the top 64 picks, to me, that is stating we are more worried about preparing for life after Ben than we are winning with him. If that is the case, I'm not so sure why everyone is sweating him retiring. Might as well let him go, draft position players, start Landry Jones, and be picking in the top 15 next year. Draft your QB next season, fill out the roster with the remaining selections, have Ben free up more cap space, and build around your rookie QB that was drafted in a better QB draft with a higher selection which should equal a better player. Either we are trying to put another ring on Ben's finger or we he is done. I really don't want to spend draft picks trying to hedge my bets on both scenarios.

As I have stated before, Ben just turned 35. He has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this year. His yearly salary in each season is $12M with a $5M roster bonus each season, so that is $17M per season. So, if he retires, he leaves $17M on the table each year. And, because of the Barry Sanders rule, if he fails to play out his contract, the Steelers can go after the amount of pro-rated signing bonus for those two seasons, which is $6.2M per season. In essence, if Ben retires after the 2017 season, he forfeits $34M in salary/bonus and could be asked to return $12.4M for a total lost compensation of $46.4M. Do you really think he is leaving that on the table? If he retires after the 2018 seasons, he gives up $17M in salary and could be asked to return $6.2M in bonus money for a total of $23.2M in lost compensation.

I'm not sure how many numbers are to the right of the 6 zeros in Ben's bank account, but when you start slicing of tens of millions of dollars from that number, it doesn't look so good. And, I don't see him as a guy that look to stick in the booth after his career. So, he better get his while he can. I am almost certain Ben plays out this contract. He could retire when it is over, but he sees this one through. And, if the Steelers draft well this year, fill out the defense where this team has a chance to win a lowB repuS or DOES win a lowB repuS between now and the end of his contract, don't be surprised to see him add additional years to see if they can continue to win.

The Steelers have spent the past decade putting players around Ben, maybe one more will put them over the Pats, maybe it will be in vein. If you had the choice of one more Championship or a 12-15 year franchise successor to Ben, which would you take? I suspect the people who remember the 12-15 years post-Bradshaw may answer differently than those who do not.

I don't think Ben is Favre. I don't think he's still playing on opening day 2019.

 

[antdrewjosh]

Del or TMC have you watched any film on this guy who we bought in for a visit.

EWU edge Samson Ebukam is very popular since terrific Pro Day (4.45, 39" VJ at 6-2, 240). 12 pre-draft visits, incl. PITT today, GB tomorrow

 

[TMC]

The Steelers have spent the past decade putting players around Ben, maybe one more will put them over the Pats, maybe it will be in vein. If you had the choice of one more Championship or a 12-15 year franchise successor to Ben, which would you take? I suspect the people who remember the 12-15 years post-Bradshaw may answer differently than those who do not.

I don't think Ben is Favre. I don't think he's still playing on opening day 2019.

Actually, the Steelers have NOT spent the last decade putting players around Ben. They were doing just fine up to the 2009 season. Up to that point, the salary cap had risen roughly 8% each year. The 2010 year was uncapped, but the Steelers operated as though it was still a capped season, estimating it at roughly $133 million. Then, the 2011 salary cap should have been @$138 million. It was not. Because of the new CBA, the salary cap was reduced to $120 million. The Steelers were forced to restructure and release players. That season, they released ARE, Flozell Adams, and Max Starks. Then, in 2012, they were again in a crunch and released James Farrior, Chris Kemoeatu, Aaron Smith, and Hines Ward. In 2013, they released James Harrison and Willie Colon. That does not include all the players they had to watch leave via free agency and all the free agents they could not afford during the time frame. In fact, this is the first off season since 2011 where the Steelers are not working the salary cap in an effort to get complaint. How in the world can that be considered putting players around Ben? They were surviving with Ben at QB.

Maybe they do not even face the Pats in the playoffs. If I thought there was a 12-15 year franchise successor to Ben in this draft, I'd have no problem taking him. But, history dictates that when you draft 30th, it is pretty unlikely that you get a franchise QB at that point or after unless you are in a strong QB draft class. We are not.

I remember the post-Bradshaw years. I remember making a Super Bowl with Neil O'Donnell. I remember almost making one with Kordell Stewart. I also remember the Ravens winning one with Trent Dilfer.

If Ben isn't playing on opening day in 2019, then he better be prepared to write a check, because it will be owed.

 

[TMC]

Del or TMC have you watched any film on this guy who we bought in for a visit.

EWU edge Samson Ebukam is very popular since terrific Pro Day (4.45, 39" VJ at 6-2, 240). 12 pre-draft visits, incl. PITT today, GB tomorrow

Watch for Ebukam to go much higher than most expect. I'm thinking he fits in the 4th, might go as high as the 3rd. I first watched him in the FCS Championship game. It was Youngstown State (Rivers and Avery Moss) VS Eastern Washington (Cooper Kupp), and Ebukam jumps out. I mean, they moved him all around. He plays as a down DT, DE, standing DE/OLB, ILB, over the slot...just move him all over the place. I checked his size and they listed him at 6'2"-229 I think. My initial thought was, maybe he can play ILB and be a nickel/dime backer because he is pretty good in coverage. He can run with some receivers, especially on shorter routes. Good in zone too. He is an aggressive blitzer, can get knocked off balance at times, but not because he lacks power, more because he comes in out of control, like his hair is on fire, and will end up stumbling and slipping. His speed to power bull is impressive. He has a nice rip too, gets under the OTs and can ride them back. I was watching his film thinking if he only did this against better competition and if he was only 10 pounds bigger. Then, I put on the film of EWU against Washington State and while he still gets knocked off balance some, dude is whipping massive LTs. Then, it becomes, if he was just a little bigger...and he hits his pro day at 240.

Yeah, I'm interested. Really interested. I'm not sure where I play him yet, not because of what he can do, but more so because I'm not sure I want to pigeon hole him into one spot. Very Haason Reddick like in his abilities. I think he could play OLB easily, but I also think if you put him at ILB beside Shazier, you have something there as well. Dude is just a player. He is the type of guy I watch and think, I want him on my team, I'll figure out what to do with him once he is there. I see what he timed, plays faster than that. Much more explosive. Looks like a DB when he runs, bendy, decent power, not elite COD, but good enough. I think he has better film than Derek Rivers, but doesn't come with that prototype size and athletic numbers you get with Rivers.

 

[TMC]

Another guy you should keep your eye on as a later pick is Carroll Phillips. He played opposite of Duwauane Smoot at Illinois. He is another 240-pound edge rusher. He is a guy that relies more on speed than power, decent enough power at the point but can be overwhelmed. But, I think he goes higher than Smoot, just seems like a more natural football player with better recognition and feel. Isn't as athletic as Rivers or Ebukam, but he is productive.

 

[deljzc]

Del or TMC have you watched any film on this guy who we bought in for a visit.

EWU edge Samson Ebukam is very popular since terrific Pro Day (4.45, 39" VJ at 6-2, 240). 12 pre-draft visits, incl. PITT today, GB tomorrow

Here is the tape I just watched on him:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/samson-ebukam-vs-washington-state-2016-2/

That's pretty good tape. I mean, you have to hold back some enthusiasm. I do see some stiffness in his hips. But he is super active and takes it to his man every play. Likes contact. He needs a lot of coaching. Rough around the edges and lots of wasted motion. TMC is right about him all over the place in their defensive system. And I might also agree moving inside to ILB would be better for us. He doesn't quite have the dip/bend to play OLB in the NFL. His bull rush and wild hand use might work at that level, but I'm not sure it will at the next. Should be a terror on special teams and make your roster just on that. I would probably put a 5th-6th round grade on him right now.

 

[Coach]

Here is the tape I just watched on him:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/samson-ebukam-vs-washington-state-2016-2/

That's pretty good tape. I mean, you have to hold back some enthusiasm. I do see some stiffness in his hips. But he is super active and takes it to his man every play. Likes contact. He needs a lot of coaching. Rough around the edges and lots of wasted motion. TMC is right about him all over the place in their defensive system. And I might also agree moving inside to ILB would be better for us. He doesn't quite have the dip/bend to play OLB in the NFL. His bull rush and wild hand use might work at that level, but I'm not sure it will at the next. Should be a terror on special teams and make your roster just on that. I would probably put a 5th-6th round grade on him right now.

The guy doesn't have a pair of ball bearing for hips.

 

[slashsteel]

The guy doesn't have a pair of ball bearing for hips.

huh?

 

[CoolieMan]

The guy doesn't have a pair of ball bearing for hips.

of course he doesn't....he isn't a cyborg....

 

[Coach]

huh?

Scout speak for he's stiff in the hips.

 

[CoolieMan]

Scout speak for he's still in the hips.

you're neither a scout or a good typist....

del aready pointed out he was a bit stiff in the hips....

 

[Steelerfan81]

Coach is special.

 

[FordFairLane]

Sticking at DB but turned to safety. What are your thoughts on Xavier Woods from LA Tech, Montae Nichols from MSU, and Johnathan Ford from Auburn.

 

[Coach]

of course he doesn't....he isn't a cyborg....

He's not University of Houston material.

 

[Coach]

A very good value draft board by Martz. I like it a lot.


http://draftboardguru.com/valueoff/

http://draftboardguru.com/valuedef/

 

[TMC]

Sticking at DB but turned to safety. What are your thoughts on Xavier Woods from LA Tech, Montae Nichols from MSU, and Johnathan Ford from Auburn.

Xavier Woods is interesting to me. He plays some single high, deep end safety and seems comfortable. He is listed as a strong, but I like him better as a deep (FS) or up tight as a slot DB. I'm not a fan when he walks down on the LB level. He tends to take a couple steps in on the snap (like most LBs) and can be a little late into his drops at that level. He doesn't do that when deep, so he sees it and reads it better. He isn't a thumper. He tackles, but he isn't your traditional SS that looks to pound a guy. Surprising coverage on the slot, can run with a lot of WRs, more quick than fast and can mirror. I think if he doesn't make it as a FS, he carves out a career as a slot corner/extra DB.

Jonathan Ford kind of surprised me at his pro day. He is bigger than I thought he was and ran better. I'm not knocking his speed on tape, but he is coming off a foot injury and I did not expect a 4.40. No COD numbers, but he looks quick enough. I did not see him playing deep much, not much as a true safety, mainly walked down and played over the slot. I think initially that is where I would fit him, as an extra DB that covers your slot. He tackles well, wants to thump a little, but not a big hitter. No great ball skills that I see, but he will get in the grill of a WR and can stick pretty close. There are some series of plays against Alabama where I was wondering WTF he was doing, looked like he was playing zone but kind of just meandered about....bit strange and out of character for him. Dunno, Alabama's weapons make guys do strange things sometimes. Not really sure he can play deep, not really sure he is that run presence to be a SS either, but I think he could carve out a career as a special teamer and extra DB covering the slot. Oddly enough, film for him reminds me some of Shamarko Thomas....and he ended his college career injured.

The Steelers brought Nicholson in for a visit. I'm kind of scratching my head on this one. He played mostly as a deep safety, FS, and while he has decent straight line speed, not sure he has good COD. He looks a little stiff. He will bite on play action. He bites on double moves, there is a play against Penn State where the CB is blitzing and Godwin gives a stutter like he is running an out and Nicholson bites so hard that it is an easy score. I don't think he is a deep safety, not for me anyway. Can he play in the box? I don't see him in man coverage, like I said, a bit stiff. But, he will hit you. He does a pretty good job tackling and taking angles to the ball. He is big, I think 210-215. Hell, maybe they can throw 10 pounds on the kid and make him a $backer. If he comes late enough, might be worth the gamble. He might be athletic enough to match up with TEs in coverage. But, I'm not coveting him, not in this deep draft. I don't hate the guy, but he has to come late for me, might be bringing him in to set him up as a priority FA.