I really starting to think it's gonna be Bryant in rd 2.
Allen Robinson or Jordan Matthews
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I really starting to think it's gonna be Bryant in rd 2.
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Here's my list.
#1- Mike Evans top ten
#2- Sammy Watkins top ten
#3- Odell Beckham Jr top 25
#4- Brandin Cooks top 25
#5- Donte Moncrief 1st/2nd
#6- Bruce Ellington 2nd
#7- Jared Abbrederis 2nd
#8- Allen Robinson 2nd/3rd
#9- Marqise Lee 2nd/3rd
#10- Kelvin Benjamin 2nd/3rd
#1- Mike Evans top ten
#2- Sammy Watkins top ten
#3- Odell Beckham Jr top 25
#4- Brandin Cooks top 25
#5- Donte Moncrief 1st/2nd
#6- Bruce Ellington 2nd
#7- Jared Abbrederis 2nd
#8- Allen Robinson 2nd/3rd
#9- Marqise Lee 2nd/3rd
#10- Kelvin Benjamin 2nd/3rd
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Bryant in the 2nd could be a ******* nightmare pick.
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Someone should be fired if they take Nix in the 1st round. He's nowhere near the BPA. What are you going to do with him against NE? Or Denver? Makes no sense to me.
If the kid ends up here and he is stuck on the field in passing downs I would have him try and drive the pocket straight back. If he does nothing other than move them back 2 or 3 steps it will be a huge plus by limiting the step up of the qb and may allow the pass rush a shot. I do not think is is a first round talent either but who knows the way they have been drafting lately. There are not a lot of guys I would be looking for at our picks seems more like a wait and see approach this year as there does not seem to be a lot of "we need this guy" talent out there.
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I think Cooks and Moncreif are the two most overrated WR prospects in the draft. Benjamin after that.
I think Ellington is very underrated. Cody Latimer next (although he's gaining steam).
Bryant is an interesting cat. TMC and I have been talking about him since February. He's got legit 1st/2nd round talent, but he's a head case and there are red flags. I certainly wouldn't push him up the board. If Latimer or Robinson are also available, I have a tough time picking the risky Bryant over either of them (even though I think Bryant could be the best of the bunch). That's a very tricky risk/reward analysis on those three prospects to me.
I think Ellington is very underrated. Cody Latimer next (although he's gaining steam).
Bryant is an interesting cat. TMC and I have been talking about him since February. He's got legit 1st/2nd round talent, but he's a head case and there are red flags. I certainly wouldn't push him up the board. If Latimer or Robinson are also available, I have a tough time picking the risky Bryant over either of them (even though I think Bryant could be the best of the bunch). That's a very tricky risk/reward analysis on those three prospects to me.
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Have to win our division. Tons of games that matter in the trenches. Tons of games that matter who's tougher inside.
Ever since Hampton has left, the run defense has gotten worse. I think Nix would make Heyward better, make Keisel a viable option for 1-2 more years at RDE and improve how Worilds and Jones are able to make impact plays.
Will he sit on nickle coverage? Sure. But he will be instrumental to me in making sure 3rd and 5's are more often 3rd and 8's. Our stuffed percentage on run defense was 30th in the league (15%). Our short yardage success as a defense was 16th in the league (teams converted 65% of short yardage situations). Our sack percentage was 6.1% (27th in the league).
I just think a change at NT might make a much bigger impact on these numbers than some are thinking. I've seen enough of McLendon to know he's pretty average when given a lot of snaps. He's not a starter in my book. Nice rotational guy, nothing special.
I think Nix is a very, very good NT. The only concern I agree with you about is his health and that needs to be checked out by the doctors. If they say his knees are okay for the next 10 years, I'm okay with that (didn't Casey Hampton have like two ACL surgeries? His knees were shot in 2009 and 2010 and he still played okay. I'm sure Nix is better than that).
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Bryant isn't just a headcase off the field, though it is concerning that he had academic issues at the beginning AND the end of his college career. He has major, major holes in his game. Yay, he's tall. Fantastic for him. He's also thin as a rail. Furthermore, a guy who catches 40 passes and drops 12.5% of his targets, yikes. Dude ran two routes his entire career, a screen and a go. Even without the off-field issues, I probably wouldn't touch him before the 3rd. I just can't imagine how anyone can knock Moncrief but gush over Bryant.
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Drops?
Watch this film of Moncrief and tell me his hands are "good"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNmiRu3Kcf0
Big drop at 1:40 that led to an interception. Easy drop at 3:13 as well.
Watch this film of Moncrief and tell me his hands are "good"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNmiRu3Kcf0
Big drop at 1:40 that led to an interception. Easy drop at 3:13 as well.
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I'm not just trying to win the division. Going 10-6 and bowing out early in the playoffs is not the purpose of putting together a team. I hope they are trying to field a SB contender not the bengals 2.0.
Also there are huge differences between Nix and Hampton. Hampton was almost impossible to get on the ground. Even in the article posted here by a Nix guy said that Nix is on the ground way too much. Also Hampton was around 325 lbs. Nix is a fat body and will never be less than the 340 (if he is that small) he is now. Also Hampton didn't have bad knees BEFORE he was even drafted. He had ACL surgeries after playing 10 years in the league. Nix already has tendinitis and he ain't getting any lighter, younger, or better knees. No Dr. is going to give you a 10 year guarantee on him.
Also our sack percentages won't increase because of Nix. He isn't a guy that you want out there during passing situations. He's going to sit every time a team goes to the hurry up or a passing down. Teams passed 58% of the time last year. You want a 1st round player sitting on the bench 58% of the time? Add to that, that most teams go pass happy on the Steelers because the Steelers are known to stop the run and you have teams like NE, Detroit, NO, Den, etc.. passing all over the place. Hell do you realize Pittsburgh threw the ball almost 200 more times than they ran?
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Never said his hands are good. He's a bit of a body catcher as well. But drops are just the tip of Bryant's iceberg.
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And the Super Bowl champion Seahawks ran more time then they threw.
I understand the concern with a more open, passing league and nose tackles. But you still need good nose tackles. I would draft Vince Wilfork in the 1st round in a heart beat. And I would probably draft Casey Hampton in the 1st round again, even in 2014. And passing doesn't just occur vs. nickle defenses. It occurs all the time. On 1st down. On 2nd and short.
What Nix will do is make those around him better. Because that's what good NT's do.
You don't think our deteriorating run defense has to be fixed? Teams (Steelers included before Foote got hurt) want to play base defense 60% of the time. That's more than half the plays you have to "win". And Nix would help us win those plays.
I just have a hard time dispelling the important of nose tackles so easily. I think we got great mileage and value from Casey Hampton. And I think Vince Wilfork was a difference maker in New England. To me Nix is a very big upgrade over McClendon. A BIG upgrade. Which makes me strongly consider him as a possible selection.
He might not be BPA. But I do have Nix very high on my big board. Higher than all the cornerbacks for instance. And I think the drop off from Nix to the next tier of NT's in this draft is significant. Not so with CB or WR or OLB (other positions people are promoting).
I don't like Hageman. He worries me a lot despite his very tempting physical traits. And for supposedly being "inexperienced" and still learning D-line, Hageman is one of the older prospects in this draft (24 before the season).
Nix is a year younger and according to this report:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nee-injury-surgery-heading-into-the-nfl-draft
he actually choose to try and repair his meniscus tear which could lead to full recovery of the joint and very little long term effects. Meniscus repairs are VERY common in football players and I bet I could find 5-10 other prospects this year that have had it.
We'll see where Nix goes. I said I'd consider him at pick #15, but getting him at in the 2nd round would be amazing to me. I can only hope all the GM's in the league have the same concerns as you.
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You seem unwilling to understand my point. You think he is 100% healthy and will have no problems in the future. You also appear to think that it's ok to draft a guy that will play ~40% of the defensive snap and be on the sideline against the best teams in the league. I don't see it that way. I see a fat body that out weighed Hampton by 20 pounds, has tendinitis (that wasn't operated on) in his knees, and will be sucking air if he is every caught on the field at the wrong times.
I've reach the bleacher report. All says is that PRP is new and nobody really knows how well it works. But since Nix has great doctors it should be great. Ok, that's enough to spend a 1st round pick on him? Because a non-medical sports report says he has good doctors?
Also if you have him high than all the CBs then there isn't much I can say. He is nowhere near the BPA on my list.
I've reach the bleacher report. All says is that PRP is new and nobody really knows how well it works. But since Nix has great doctors it should be great. Ok, that's enough to spend a 1st round pick on him? Because a non-medical sports report says he has good doctors?
Also if you have him high than all the CBs then there isn't much I can say. He is nowhere near the BPA on my list.
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Not exactly accurate. In my research on Bryant, he has not had any disorderly type issues. Coaches questioned his maturity and approach to the game prior to his last season, where Swinney said he turned it completely around. He did have academic issues, had to go prep to qualify and then was suspended for the bowl game his sophomore season. He had to have cleaned that up or he would not have played last season. No issues then. No arrests. Only other issue I know of is he made a throat slash after scoring and Dabo disciplined him for that. If that is a headcase, better stay away from Watkins too, since he was stopped and had marijuana and other controlled substances in the car. Dabo has also said Bryant's approach was completely different. Bryant attributed to him being home during the bowl and his mother was visibly upset, which kind of struck a cord with him. That is it. So, not sure I buy the headcase stuff. Immature...sure. Headcase....not even a blip compared to guys like Mike Adams, who used drugs and lied to the team about it.
Bryant is not thin as a rail. Nobody was concerned about Limas Sweed's size when he was drafted and they are within a half inch in height and 5 pounds. He is bigger/heavier than Sidney Rice. Similar size to Robert Meachum and Braylon Edwards. Someone compared him to Chris Henry, even though he is a little shorter and almost 15 pounds heavier. Laughable.
Now, if he had 400 receptions and dropped 12.5% of his targets, would that be better? The 12.5% is a percentage. The higher the number of targets, the more drops. So, 10 targets, 20 targets, etc, does not matter. Moncrief is right there with him as a drop rate, so is Marquis Lee.
In this video, in the 8-10 routes he ran, he only ran 2 routes over, showed about 5-7 different routes. Odd, he must have learned more.......
The idea that you state he ran a lot of screens is laughable, because Watkins was the screen guy.
As for Moncrief, I would not knock him, but he has some questionable hands, does not appear as athletic as Bryant, and really looks a little stiffer when asked to make his break. Bryant has some drops, but in the film I have watched, many have came when he turned his head to look up the field. Moncrief actually looks like he is not a natural pass catcher, kind of bodies it more, fights it in, more similar to Mike Wallace. May be wrong, but concentration can be improved a lot easier than teaching a guy to soften his hands.
I think you are overselling Bryant's issues a little.
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I hate to break it to you but Hampton didn't weigh less than 331 (which is what Nix was at the combine) since 2005 (if that).
The idea Hampton weighs less than Nix is kind of a silly argument to base his worth.
I see your position as being a Hampton (or any NT) that only plays 60% of the snaps isn't worth a 1st round pick. I think getting another Hampton would easily be worth a 1st round pick. I actually think Nix is a better prospect than Hampton. A bit taller/longer and I think better as a pass rusher than Hampton ever was at his peak.
Let's really think about the choices at #15:
Wide Receiver is very deep and I think we can get even a starting caliber prospect at pick 100. Using 15 on it might not be the best use of the resource.
I would pick Lewan over Nix, but not Kouandjio
The cornerback is definitely in play, but the history of Colbert, Lebeau and Tomlin all say no (none have taken a 1st round corner in all their prominent combined years in the league)
I think Nix is a better prospect than Hageman (who I have concerns about) and think D-line is a big need for this team.
Ebron is a wildcard
What else is really a consideration? ILB? OLB? Safety? Not sure I really think we're going that way. Mosley, Clinton Dix? Do you?
I think Nix is very much in play for us.
The idea Hampton weighs less than Nix is kind of a silly argument to base his worth.
I see your position as being a Hampton (or any NT) that only plays 60% of the snaps isn't worth a 1st round pick. I think getting another Hampton would easily be worth a 1st round pick. I actually think Nix is a better prospect than Hampton. A bit taller/longer and I think better as a pass rusher than Hampton ever was at his peak.
Let's really think about the choices at #15:
Wide Receiver is very deep and I think we can get even a starting caliber prospect at pick 100. Using 15 on it might not be the best use of the resource.
I would pick Lewan over Nix, but not Kouandjio
The cornerback is definitely in play, but the history of Colbert, Lebeau and Tomlin all say no (none have taken a 1st round corner in all their prominent combined years in the league)
I think Nix is a better prospect than Hageman (who I have concerns about) and think D-line is a big need for this team.
Ebron is a wildcard
What else is really a consideration? ILB? OLB? Safety? Not sure I really think we're going that way. Mosley, Clinton Dix? Do you?
I think Nix is very much in play for us.
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Multiple academic suspensions scare me. They suggest very, very strongly a guy doesn't focus or prioritize. I mean, you know you need to study to make/stay on the team and build a future in football. Not to mention commitment to teammates, etc. And you still can't squeeze it in? Or, "best" case scenario, they're just not bright enough to retain/process information. Now, that's not universal. Of course there are exceptions. Maybe the guy just hates school and launches into football. But if that were the case, I think you'd see a more consistent, focused, productive player than Martavis Bryant. Especially since, according to you, his approach the game was also questioned by his coaches.
I'm not saying you drop a guy from your board because he sucked (consistently) in school. But to shrug it off and overdraft him anyway? No thanks. And Mike Adams? Really? That would justify it? Adams shouldn't have been taken in the 2nd either. I doubt any NFL war room is shrugging and saying, "Well, it worked with Mike Adams!"
You have yet to mention a productive NFL receiver. Of those four, I've got: an injury-prone deep threat with one good season out of 7.. a deep threat with a two-year prime that ended in 2007.. a career WR4 who has never topped 45 catches.. and a horrific bust. I hope you'd aim higher with a second-round pick.
A.J. Green is the only upper-tier guy I can find with a similar build to Bryant. And I hope we don't have to go down that road. Almost every good WR around Bryant's height is bigger, so what you're banking on there is that Martavis Bryant is going to team up with A.J. Green and break the mold. Go with God, but I'm not burning a premium pick to find out, especially once I look at Bryant's lack of consistency and production.
I don't think anyone compared the two on a height/weight level. Maybe I'm wrong, but I sure didn't. I was comparing the two on a skillset/impact level. What's more laughable about that comparison is that Henry was productive in school, while Bryant was an afterthought.
Understood. It's concerning because he was rarely used, but managed to drop passes at a breathtaking rate when he was. To me, that's sad.
Moncrief put up, by a wide margin, the highest adjusted explosivity numbers at the combine. "Adjusted" means accounting for size, which is really the main feather in Bryant's cap. No WR is in this class on Moncrief's level in terms of explosivity.
In fact, he's among the best of the past decade in explosivity. His numbers came in 9th-best since 1999. The eight with better numbers: Calvin, V-Jax, Stephen Hill, Julio, Andre, Chris Chambers, Tyrone Calico, Mark Harrison. And if you take out Hill, Calico and Harrison, all lightly-used college WRs who were ONLY workout warriors without big college resumes, that list gives you 2 HOFers, 2 superstars, and a Pro Bowler. In other words.. Moncrief has otherworldly explosion numbers, ones that stack up with almost exclusively top-level WRs, to go along with a solid resume and some good film.
Not to split hairs, but Bryant does not have a negligible number of drops. He has an extraordinary number of drops. Yes, I know Marqise Lee had a similar percentage. Lee also has a legendary NCAA season on his resume and was nagged by injuries throughout last year, so while I'm not big on Lee at all, he gets 10x the slack Bryant and his 61 career catches get.
Maybe. I do have him as a 3-4 round guy; his long speed is enticing and he did catch TDs on 1/6 of his catches last year. That's not nothing; it makes for a semi-intriguing prospect. I just see a potential trainwreck at #46, considering it's a guy who contributed for one year and was only a role player in that one. (Sounds to me like a far less productive Kelvin Benjamin.) Especially considering the more polished guys with similar upsides at that pick. Hell, I'd take a somewhat limited slot machine like Abbrederis there before Bryant. I think Clemson oversold his issues as well, though, because he was rarely utilized despite a consensus top-5 teammate drawing attention to the other side.
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I think M.Bryant is the most intriguing of all of the 2nd/3rd tier WR's. I think he has all the ability to be as good as an Evans, or a KB.
The only thing that concerns me is is production. his pedestrian numbers, with a top 5 WR taking the heat off of him, was not that impressive.
But its hard to disregard his workout numbers and stature. The guy could has the potential to be a beast- or maybe just a terrific 'test taker'
The only thing that concerns me is is production. his pedestrian numbers, with a top 5 WR taking the heat off of him, was not that impressive.
But its hard to disregard his workout numbers and stature. The guy could has the potential to be a beast- or maybe just a terrific 'test taker'
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Where do you get MULTIPLE academic suspensions. I see one. He was suspended from the bowl game because of academic reasons. What is the other? He did not qualify coming out of high school and had to go to Hargrave Military Academy before heading to Clemson. That is not a suspension. Many players have had to go that route, or the Juco route, before moving to a 4-year school. Are those two issues so big that you wipe a player off your board? Are you now dinging any kid that fails to qualify academically out of high school and gets a 1 game suspension in college for grades? For the love of God......and, I did not compare him to Mike Adams as if Adams was a success story, because he is far from that, but the Steelers did draft a guy with much more in the character risk column in the 2nd round. Hell, they drafted Stonio Holmes in the first. You are blowing the headcase stuff way out of proportion.
I did not list those guys because they were elite WRs. I listed them because they played in the NFL, were similar heights/weights and were not called "thin as a rail" by anyone. Yet, you call him thin when he is well over 210 pounds. Randy Moss was 6033-203. Successful enough? Eric Decker was 6031-217. Jordy Nelson is in that range. Wanna pick something else?
Willie Parker was not ever productive in school either. Troy Edwards had one of the most productive single seasons of any WR. Plenty of very productive guys that fail in the NFL. Plenty. Plenty of less productive guys that excel. If college production was an indicator of future success, the draft sure would be a lot easier. It is not.
He was barely used because they force fed Watkins the football. Prior to this season, they had DeAndre Hopkins at WR. So, what you are stating is, a guy slated in the 2nd round was held back by a potential top 5 pick and a former first round selection. Wow, that is a shocker. I would have thought Clemson should have benched Hopkins to play the freshman. WTF were they thinking? And, that breathtaking rate of drops also correlates to Moncrief (considered a 2nd rounder) and Lee (a first rounder). Neither Moncrief or Lee had guys like Watkins or Hopkins ahead of them.
LMAO, "adjusted" explosivity numbers....really? Adjusted for size? Love to see that formula. You mean adjusted for weight. Has to be adjusted for weight because the difference in "size" between the two is pretty easy to see. Moncrief is 221. Bryant is 211. Moncrief is 6023 and Bryant is 6036. So, Moncrief is over an inch shorter and 10 pounds heavier. Moncrief ran 4.40 and 4.35 unofficial. He ran a 4.40 official. Bryant ran a 4.34 and 4.35 unofficial and 4.42 official. Bryant benched 225-16 times while the bigger Moncrief did 13. Bryant has longer arms. The difference in the VJ was 1/2" in favor of Moncrief. Moncrief had a broad jump of 11" while Bryant had a score of 10'4". The shuttle was 0.11 in favor of Moncrief with the cone being 0.15 in favor of Bryant.
The differences are razor thin. The ONLY way they could be factored out in favor of Moncrief is to use the 10 pounds heavier because if it were based on height, they would favor Bryant. Again, show me the formula......
And Moncrief also does not have a neglible number of drops. Drops are drops. If you cannot catch, you cannot catch. Just because a team feeds you the ball enough to put up massive numbers does not mean the problem is solved. That is just ******* dumb.
Again, you also have a WR that had elite WRs in front of him every season until this year and played with a top 5 pick this season that Clemson force fed the football. What cannot be overlooked is, in a horizontal offense where he was asked to block more than catch, Bryant lead the ACC in yards per catch and was 4th in the nation. When they crossed the 50, he was a weapon. The number of TDs he caught does not account for the times he was tackled inside the 10 while making the catch. Of Bryant's 42 receptions, 33 went for first downs. Of those 42, 27 were 15 yards or more with 12 going more than 25. That is a significant amount of throws down the field. In 2012, of his mere 10 receptions, 8 were over 15 yards with 6 being greater than 25. He scored 4 times. His AVE was 30.50 yards per catch. In 2011, only 9 receptions, 2 TDs, 6 over 15 yards with 5 being over 25. His YPC was 24.56. And, he is a redzone monster.
I do not have anything against Moncrief. I just do not feel he is a natural pass catcher and that accounts for his drops. I think Bryant is different and his is concentration. Of course, that does not mean Moncrief will fail. Wallace is not a natural hands catcher and he just inked for $12M a season. Sweed had good hands but had lapses in concentration. Did not bode so well for him. Do not know if you can anoint one over the other.
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Bryant is fine, if he's still there in rd 4. Otherwise, let someone else roll the dice
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What is their defensive philosophy? Cuz after last year, I have no clue anymore.
Went from #2 versus the run with Hampton to #21 without. But what makes you think those events are related?
Nobody runs 60% base anymore. Ratios of base/packs tend to mirror league ratios for run/pass. Most teams are in base 40-45% of the time. Haven't looked at last year's numbers, but I doubt more than 1 or 2 teams were in base 50% or more. In 2012 the Steelers were one of those few teams, and by a wide margin at 63% base. Last year due to no plan whatsoever, they completely flipped those ratios. What's the plan going forward? Who knows. Is there even a plan? Anyways, those high, high base numbers of the past, compared to the rest of the league says something about their Run D. That it was overrated. They achieved that success because they dedicated more mass/big bodies to stopping the run than anyone else, and by a wide margin. Last year they didn't, and those numbers went to crap.
League has changed, and LeBeau/Tomlin have been slow/resistant to change with it. The Tebow game shoulda been their wakeup call. It wasn't.
Stopping the run is important, but it's not as simple as plugging in a NT. There are other ways teams supplement the run game to keep on schedule. Sammy Watkins isn't a WR. He's a split RB, for example. NT doesn't do you a ******** bit of good there, and that is the direction of the NFL when it comes to keeping the chains on sched.
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If we had been stopping the run would Clark, Timmons and Woodley have bitten as hard on Pryor's 91 yard option run?
You make it sound like all the players play a certain way based nothing on the players around them. It's an 11 man team. If the guys inside are doing their job, then the coaches aren't yelling about giving up the run on 1st downs and maybe Clark and Woodley aren't crashing as hard to help out and fix what the coaches have been yelling about.
When you win inside it has a drastic effect on what the outside guys are capable of doing and pay attention too.
We've talked about the crash last year going from 60% base defense to 60% nickle/dime because of the injury to Larry Foote. I'm as critical of anyone for that. I think I did a chart and the average number of D-linemen went from 2.7 to 2.5 per play between 2012 and 2013 (I don't have the numbers in front of me and don't have time to check right now - I will this afternoon).
I would not construe that adjustment to mean they WANT to do it because that's not what I suspect. I suspect it had a lot to do with the better available players just happen to be in the DB's and not in the D-line and LB's.
You make it sound like all the players play a certain way based nothing on the players around them. It's an 11 man team. If the guys inside are doing their job, then the coaches aren't yelling about giving up the run on 1st downs and maybe Clark and Woodley aren't crashing as hard to help out and fix what the coaches have been yelling about.
When you win inside it has a drastic effect on what the outside guys are capable of doing and pay attention too.
We've talked about the crash last year going from 60% base defense to 60% nickle/dime because of the injury to Larry Foote. I'm as critical of anyone for that. I think I did a chart and the average number of D-linemen went from 2.7 to 2.5 per play between 2012 and 2013 (I don't have the numbers in front of me and don't have time to check right now - I will this afternoon).
I would not construe that adjustment to mean they WANT to do it because that's not what I suspect. I suspect it had a lot to do with the better available players just happen to be in the DB's and not in the D-line and LB's.
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