I
Idioteque
Guest
OK. I've finished my study of Mosley. I watched a good number of snaps from games across 2012 and 2013.
First of all, there's not a lot of athletic upside here. Even if he weren't a walking injury, he looks solid but not elite in terms of speed and fluidity. He closes pretty well, changes directions OK, and does have a decent gear in a straight line. So he's a solid, unspectacular athlete. This isn't really an indictment, or I'd say he's slow and stiff. He's not; he's just probably maxed out athletically at this point. It's hard for me to expect he'll hit the NFL and become much more fluid and much more explosive.
From a strength/power perspective, he looks OK. I'd like to know why he opted not to bench press at the Combine OR his Pro Day; most LBs, especially those high in the rankings, did the bench. Mosley did everything except run the 40 and bench. (His Pro Day 40 was fairly pedestrian, which is troubling considering how inflated Pro Day times usually are. I think he's about a 4.7 guy on a Combine field.) As far as strength goes, he looks like the "elite in college/acceptable in the pros" type. He's good at working through trash, but not so much with strength as much as fundamentals. Also consider that he had a Nick Saban Alabama d-line in front of him absorbing blockers; at least two of those guys are about to be drafted. So, when he's asked to take on Gs in the open field in the NFL, I don't see much evidence that he'll be elite at it.
Next, consider the recent track record of Alabama prospects. They have a penchant for being overworked injury cases. I know that shouldn't apply to every Saban prospect, but in Mosley, we're talking about a guy with an extensive injury history himself. At Alabama, he's dislocated an elbow and a hip, and now has a potential knee issue.
I know a lot of folks see "Alabama" next to his name and get stars in their eyes. But for all of their success, they've been anything but an NFL factory. Their first-rounders since 2009:
Dee Milliner (horrendous rookie year)
Chance Warmack (non-descript rookie season)
D.J. Fluker (up-and-down rookie season)
Trent Richardson (crappy and injury-riddled)
Mark Barron (has struggled mightily)
Dre Kirkpatrick (yet to break out)
Dont'a Hightower (solid, not great)
Marcell Dareus (great player but poor work ethic)
Julio Jones (great player but lingering foot injury from college)
James Carpenter (bust)
Mark Ingram (injury-riddled bust)
Rolando McClain (ahem)
Kareem Jackson (eventually started to look solid, not great)
Andre Smith (eventually started to look solid, not great; conditioning concerns)
They've also had a lot of guys viewed as first-rounders, only to slide into the second and beyond during the intensive draft process. Eddie Lacy, Courtney Upshaw, Javier Arenas, and Terrence Cody come to mind. So, I'm not going to give Mosley any points whatsoever for his college, or his conference. In fact, I'm going to take a look at the injury and stamina concerns of his Alabama peers and wonder even further, especially considering his own injury history.
I do like his fundamentals, for the most part. He diagnoses a play quickly and doesn't waste many steps getting to it. He knows how to sort through trash from a fundamental standpoint. Here's the thing, though: pretty much this entire scouting report could be applied to someone like Manti Te'o. Or a host of other ultra-productive college LBs. The way you can spot upside is pretty simple: do they look like they can defeat NFL athletes? I think Mosley can when he's protected by a good d-line and allowed to just flow into the gaps. I even think he'll hustle his way through some of those gaps and into the backfield from time to time. But will he defeat OL on the second level? Will he run step-for-step with a receiving TE down the seam? Will he chase Jamaal Charles into the flat? I know I'm asking a lot here, but we're talking about the 15th pick in an awesome draft. I'd like more than a slightly better Manti Te'o.
First of all, there's not a lot of athletic upside here. Even if he weren't a walking injury, he looks solid but not elite in terms of speed and fluidity. He closes pretty well, changes directions OK, and does have a decent gear in a straight line. So he's a solid, unspectacular athlete. This isn't really an indictment, or I'd say he's slow and stiff. He's not; he's just probably maxed out athletically at this point. It's hard for me to expect he'll hit the NFL and become much more fluid and much more explosive.
From a strength/power perspective, he looks OK. I'd like to know why he opted not to bench press at the Combine OR his Pro Day; most LBs, especially those high in the rankings, did the bench. Mosley did everything except run the 40 and bench. (His Pro Day 40 was fairly pedestrian, which is troubling considering how inflated Pro Day times usually are. I think he's about a 4.7 guy on a Combine field.) As far as strength goes, he looks like the "elite in college/acceptable in the pros" type. He's good at working through trash, but not so much with strength as much as fundamentals. Also consider that he had a Nick Saban Alabama d-line in front of him absorbing blockers; at least two of those guys are about to be drafted. So, when he's asked to take on Gs in the open field in the NFL, I don't see much evidence that he'll be elite at it.
Next, consider the recent track record of Alabama prospects. They have a penchant for being overworked injury cases. I know that shouldn't apply to every Saban prospect, but in Mosley, we're talking about a guy with an extensive injury history himself. At Alabama, he's dislocated an elbow and a hip, and now has a potential knee issue.
I know a lot of folks see "Alabama" next to his name and get stars in their eyes. But for all of their success, they've been anything but an NFL factory. Their first-rounders since 2009:
Dee Milliner (horrendous rookie year)
Chance Warmack (non-descript rookie season)
D.J. Fluker (up-and-down rookie season)
Trent Richardson (crappy and injury-riddled)
Mark Barron (has struggled mightily)
Dre Kirkpatrick (yet to break out)
Dont'a Hightower (solid, not great)
Marcell Dareus (great player but poor work ethic)
Julio Jones (great player but lingering foot injury from college)
James Carpenter (bust)
Mark Ingram (injury-riddled bust)
Rolando McClain (ahem)
Kareem Jackson (eventually started to look solid, not great)
Andre Smith (eventually started to look solid, not great; conditioning concerns)
They've also had a lot of guys viewed as first-rounders, only to slide into the second and beyond during the intensive draft process. Eddie Lacy, Courtney Upshaw, Javier Arenas, and Terrence Cody come to mind. So, I'm not going to give Mosley any points whatsoever for his college, or his conference. In fact, I'm going to take a look at the injury and stamina concerns of his Alabama peers and wonder even further, especially considering his own injury history.
I do like his fundamentals, for the most part. He diagnoses a play quickly and doesn't waste many steps getting to it. He knows how to sort through trash from a fundamental standpoint. Here's the thing, though: pretty much this entire scouting report could be applied to someone like Manti Te'o. Or a host of other ultra-productive college LBs. The way you can spot upside is pretty simple: do they look like they can defeat NFL athletes? I think Mosley can when he's protected by a good d-line and allowed to just flow into the gaps. I even think he'll hustle his way through some of those gaps and into the backfield from time to time. But will he defeat OL on the second level? Will he run step-for-step with a receiving TE down the seam? Will he chase Jamaal Charles into the flat? I know I'm asking a lot here, but we're talking about the 15th pick in an awesome draft. I'd like more than a slightly better Manti Te'o.
