Deljzc's Quarterback Rating (DQR) - 2019 Regular Season

[deljzc]

Okay, here is my annual QB rankings/performance analysis based on my homebrew formulas. This is my version that replaces the NFL's Quarterback Rating. It does NOT replace whatever ESPN is doing with their QBR. My system's scores are similar to traditional quarterback rating, so 100+ is very good, etc.

As expected, the Steelers QB performance this year was very poor. Only Carolina's QB's were worse as a group. Also, Drew Brees consistently just crushes my metrics. The guy has been in the top-6 QB ratings every year since 2014 (I have a hole in 2017 which I didn't do that year but I am assuming he's top-6 then as well).

I will gladly share my QB formula if you want but it is a lot of math. The basis is based on five major categories: completion percentage, yards per play, turnovers, points scored per possession and a comparison of "big plays" (20+ yards) vs. sacks taken. Not all of these categories are valued completely equally. Also note that measuring Lamar Jackson as a "Quarterback" is very hard. When he runs for 7 yards/carry that yards per play might not be great as compared to a pass play but it is amazing as compared to a rush play. Hard for my formulas to account for that. I just measure plays the QB runs/passes or is the focus of the play itself.

D. Brees 124.0
P. Mahomes 118.5
L. Jackson 115.4
R. Tannehill 114.1
D. Prescott 112.1
K. Cousins 108.0
M. Stafford 104.3
D. Carr 102.2
J. Garappolo 101.6
R. Wilson 99.9
T. Bridgewater 95.8
A. Rogers 93.8
J. Goff 93.3
D. Watson 92.8
T. Brady 91.0
P. Rivers 91.0
D. Lock 87.4
C. Wentz 86.2
M. Ryan 86.1
K. Murray 85.4
J. Winston 83.8
E. Manning 82.4
J. Brissett 81.5
G. Minshew 80.1
R. Fitzpatrick 78.4
J. Allen 76.5
B. Mayfield 76.1
C. Keenum 76.0
M. Mariota 75.8
J. Flacco 74.6
B. Roethlisberger 72.1
M. Rudolf 72.1
M. Trubinski 71.8
S. Darnold 70.7
A. Dalton 69.2
D. Jones 67.4
K. Allen 65.3
D. Haskins 59.8
D. Hodges 58.6

 

[Litos]

Quack!

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[Fiji Mariner]

Looks pretty accurate

Hodges is only 1.2 pts behind a first rounder!!!! Quack quack

 

[Superman]

"a lot of math"

{tries to conceal wood}

/ark

 

[Steelin]

"a lot of math"

{tries to conceal wood}

/ark

Math is cool...

 

[Steelmann]

Have to give back up QB Ryan Tannehill props. I knew he was doing well....but not that well!

 

[deljzc]

Tannehill's main statistics used in the measurement:

Completion %: 70.28% (201/286) - very good (average is around 62%)
Yards per Play: 8.63 (2944 yards on 341 drop backs) - exceptional (average is around 6.75 to 7.00)
Points per Possession: About 2.5 - very good (average is around 2.0)
Turnovers: 9 turnovers in 341 drop backs (2.6%) - average to a little above average (average is about 2.8% - 3%)
Big Plays: 44 vs. Sacks: 31 = +13 in 341 drop backs = 3.8% slightly above average (which is around 2%)

So in his limited time playing (but still 341 relevant plays, which is a decent sample size), Tannehill did pretty damn well in almost any measurable statistic. He takes too many sacks (projected over a whole season that is close to 45-50 sacks) and he can still be turnover prone, which are still the biggest two risks in him moving forward.

 

[Drink IRON City]

"a lot of math"

{tries to conceal wood}

/ark

Math is cool...

It's his "wood for ark" that has some concerned................. Or not





Salute the nation

 

[Drink IRON City]

Deljzc, great post and thanks for your effort as well.


Pretty complete and t*mmyb*y, along with his cheat factor is slipping to mid pack. Not bad for a 58year old washed up cheating quarterback.


In the past where did Ben Roethlisberger usually end up.............????





Salute the nation

 

[deljzc]

Roethlisberger
2018 - 101.7 (7th)
2016 - 102.6 (6th)
2015 - 107.3 (3rd)
2014 - 103.8 (4th)
2013 - 85.0
2012 - 89.9
2011 - 86.2
2010 - 102.1
2009 - 95.4
2008 - 65.6
2007 - 85.7
2006 - 68.4
2005 - 94.3
2004 - 92.7

 

[Hines57]

And this is why we were not a playoff team

 

[Steelworth]

Roethlisberger
2018 - 101.7 (7th)
2016 - 102.6 (6th)
2015 - 107.3 (3rd)
2014 - 103.8 (4th)
2013 - 85.0
2012 - 89.9
2011 - 86.2
2010 - 102.1
2009 - 95.4
2008 - 65.6
2007 - 85.7
2006 - 68.4
2005 - 94.3
2004 - 92.7

2007 was one of his best seasons. Am I missing something on this one?

 

[Ike Kelly]

Tannehill's main statistics used in the measurement:

Completion %: 70.28% (201/286) - very good (average is around 62%)
Yards per Play: 8.63 (2944 yards on 341 drop backs) - exceptional (average is around 6.75 to 7.00)
Points per Possession: About 2.5 - very good (average is around 2.0)
Turnovers: 9 turnovers in 341 drop backs (2.6%) - average to a little above average (average is about 2.8% - 3%)
Big Plays: 44 vs. Sacks: 31 = +13 in 341 drop backs = 3.8% slightly above average (which is around 2%)

So in his limited time playing (but still 341 relevant plays, which is a decent sample size), Tannehill did pretty damn well in almost any measurable statistic. He takes too many sacks (projected over a whole season that is close to 45-50 sacks) and he can still be turnover prone, which are still the biggest two risks in him moving forward.

Nice write up Del. I’m curious though, is your completion percentage and yard per play calculation adjusted for YAC? Or do they combine total pass yards at the catch and YAC? I’ve seen some formulas that take this into account.


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[deljzc]

2007 was one of his best seasons. Am I missing something on this one?

I penalized his quarterback play quite a bit based on taking 47 sacks that year. He also had 3 fumbles lost. And less big plays (20+ yards).

Efficiency was very good that year and he had a lot of TD passes so traditional QB rating likes that. I take into account and value downfield throws and not taking sacks and include them in my calculation.

 

[steelhurt]

Nice work Del. I wonder if Coach will approve?


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[Steelworth]

I penalized his quarterback play quite a bit based on taking 47 sacks that year. He also had 3 fumbles lost. And less big plays (20+ yards).

Efficiency was very good that year and he had a lot of TD passes so traditional QB rating likes that. I take into account and value downfield throws and not taking sacks and include them in my calculation.

Ah, excellent analysis, thanks for sharing.

 

[slashsteel]

I penalized his quarterback play quite a bit based on taking 47 sacks that year. He also had 3 fumbles lost. And less big plays (20+ yards).

Efficiency was very good that year and he had a lot of TD passes so traditional QB rating likes that. I take into account and value downfield throws and not taking sacks and include them in my calculation.

Wouldn't that negatively impact a QB who just so happened to be on a team that has crappy pass protectors?

 

[Coach]

Nice work Deljzc. Looking forward to your head coach rankings.

 

[Coach]

Nice work Del. I wonder if Coach will approve?


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Del and I agree on many things. This is decent. I would add a passer rating on third down. How many times did the QB move the chains with his arm or legs on average vs the other qb's?

The players I think are overrated are:

Prescott's accuracy is off and on. He has a top OL and running game around him. Kill bad teams, flops vs good one.
Stafford is a fantasy football type of QB. Your team has to win more games. Has he won a playoff game yet?
Goff isn't very accurate nor does he have a good arm, he's got the right system.
Winston is a turnover machine with lot of offensive talent around him.

Guys I think are under rated

Minshew. A rookie on a very bad team
Fitzpatrick, he's actually impressive on team with a bad ol and running game.
Allen. He does what it takes to win


D. Brees 124.0
P. Mahomes 118.5
L. Jackson 115.4
R. Tannehill 114.1
D. Prescott 112.1
K. Cousins 108.0
M. Stafford 104.3
D. Carr 102.2
J. Garappolo 101.6
R. Wilson 99.9
T. Bridgewater 95.8
A. Rogers 93.8
J. Goff 93.3
D. Watson 92.8
T. Brady 91.0
P. Rivers 91.0
D. Lock 87.4
C. Wentz 86.2
M. Ryan 86.1
K. Murray 85.4
J. Winston 83.8
E. Manning 82.4
J. Brissett 81.5
G. Minshew 80.1
R. Fitzpatrick 78.4
J. Allen 76.5
B. Mayfield 76.1
C. Keenum 76.0
M. Mariota 75.8
J. Flacco 74.6
B. Roethlisberger 72.1
M. Rudolf 72.1
M. Trubinski 71.8
S. Darnold 70.7
A. Dalton 69.2
D. Jones 67.4
K. Allen 65.3
D. Haskins 59.8
D. Hodges 58.6

 

[Black & Gold Bleeder]

ill take Stafford on my team any day. You become a "fantasy football type qb" when youre a great qb throwing from behind on a ****** team.

 

[SteelerSask2]

If Ben cannot play, literally any QB who can put up 24 points in a game will look great. Even if there is a few more picks. Unfortunately they will not even be close to affording one of those guys unless Ben announces retirement and they can push off salary for a year.

 

[deljzc]

Just remember it's all stats based.

It does not take into account strength of schedule or supporting cast. Just what happens in the games. I tried to "improve" the standard QB rating system, not make it the end-all of quarterback discussion. It remains just one piece of a much larger puzzle.

And I have seen some BIG jumps up and down from the same players year-to-year.

Rivers went from 101.8 in 2011 to 68.5 in 2012 and then back up to 109.8 in 2013. Obviously he's the "same player" but statistically he just didn't do the same things. Matt Ryan has been as low as 81.3 in 2013 and as high as 126.7 in 2016 (one of the highest ratings recorded). Andy Dalton once had a 111.1 season (in 2015) but the four years before that was always 72.4 to 83.8.

I mean, you see this in batting average in baseball as well. I can't explain why a player can bat .320 one year and .260 the next. Same player, same pitchers, same team.... It just happens.

 

[deljzc]

Wouldn't that negatively impact a QB who just so happened to be on a team that has crappy pass protectors?

I am of the opinion sacks are at least 50% the QB's fault. Better QB's just find ways not to take negative plays. They learn how good their line protects and adjusts to get the ball out quicker.

For a three year period (2006-2008), Ben went through a very bad stage of taking sacks. For that three year period he had 21 MORE sacks than plays 20+ yards. I have always felt like, look, if your system takes a lot of sacks, you better make up for it with big plays. I can accept a certain amount of risk/reward. But we all know (and we discussed this a LOT back then) that Ben was tilting too far into the "risk" area and not enough into the "reward" area. We all blamed this on Arian's system (funny how Winston is having the same issues). At least Winston had an insane 79!!! plays of 20+ yards vs. his 47 sacks. That was the most big plays of any QB in the league by a lot (2nd best was Dak Prescott with 70, there was a 3-way tie for 3rd with 61 - SF, TEN & DET).

Back from 2006-2008, Ben was only getting 40-45 big plays a season and getting sacked 45-50 times. It wasn't good enough and was hurting production. That is reflective in my rating.

 

[Coach]

You become a "fantasy football type qb" when youre a great qb throwing from behind on a ****** team.

I agree. You just described him.




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[Black & Gold Bleeder]

The players I think are overrated are:

Stafford is a fantasy football type of QB. Your team has to win more games. Has he won a playoff game yet?

M. Stafford 104.3

ill take Stafford on my team any day. You become a "fantasy football type qb" when youre a great qb throwing from behind on a ****** team.

I agree. You just described him.

So youre saying he is not over rated and you would like him on your team as well.