I can tell you flat out that the "9 times out of 10" theory is bunk. Just look back in history. Johnny U. was so bad in SB V ---and long past elite status --- he got benched, yet the Colts won; hard to consider Terry Bradshaw "elite" during seasons SB IV or X; Jim Plunkett was not elite, yet managed to rumble, bumble and stumble to 2 SB wins; was Jim McMahon "elite"? Doug Williams? Mark Rypien? Jeff Hostetler? Brad Johnson? Trent Dilfer? Eli Manning? Many of these guys - competent, yes, elite, no...or elite for a day or even a season, but certainly not elite in the way we measure QBs over a longer period of performance. That's 12 SBs right there, off the top of my head....may have missed some.
Sure, it helps to have an elite QB, but it is far from necessary.
The Qb's in green are or will be in the pro football hall of fame.
The Qb's in orange were elite level players in their time
To be fair you can be an elite level player and never make the hall of fame, but I think it a pretty good bench mark.
Some takeaways
*** 40 of 51 winning QB of the super bowl are also in the hall of fame.
78.4%!!! ***
*** I would say Phil Simms, and Russell Wilson are elite level players. Simms is nominated for the hall of fame. Mark Rypien was a former NFL MVP, that's elite. Theismann was also elite So move the needle to 44 of 51 were elite or
86.2% of the time. ***
*** At times you have a team with just above average QB winning the superbowl, however he often needs an all time type of defense around him and a non elite level type of QB playing for the other team. ***
When I said 9 times out of ten you 10 an elite level QB to win the super bowl, that was pretty accurate.
NO. DATE RESULT
I Jan. 15, 1967
Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
II Jan. 14, 1968
Green Bay 33, Oakland 14
III Jan. 12, 1969
New York Jets 16, Baltimore 7
IV Jan. 11, 1970
Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7
V Jan. 17, 1971
Baltimore 16, Dallas 13
VI Jan. 16, 1972
Dallas 24, Miami 3
VII Jan. 14, 1973
Miami 14, Washington 7
VIII Jan. 13, 1974
Miami 24, Minnesota 7
IX Jan. 12, 1975
Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6
X Jan. 18, 1976
Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17
XI Jan. 9, 1977 Oakland 32, Minnesota 14
XII Jan. 15, 1978
Dallas 27, Denver 10
XIII Jan. 21, 1979
Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
XIV Jan. 20, 1980
Pittsburgh 31, Los Angeles 19
XV Jan. 25, 1981 Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10
XVI Jan. 24, 1982
San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21
XVII Jan. 30, 1983
Washington 27, Miami 17
XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 Los Angeles 38, Washington 9
XIX Jan. 20, 1985
San Francisco 38, Miami 16
XX Jan. 26, 1986
Chicago 46, New England 10
XXI Jan. 25, 1987
New York Giants 39, Denver 20
XXII Jan. 31, 1988
Washington 42, Denver 10
XXIII Jan. 22, 1989
San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16
XXIV Jan. 28, 1990
San Francisco 55, Denver 10
XXV Jan. 27, 1991 New York Giants 20, Buffalo 19
XXVI Jan. 26, 1992
Washington 37, Buffalo 24
XXVII Jan. 31, 1993
Dallas 52, Buffalo 17
XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994
Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
XXIX Jan. 29, 1995
San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
XXX Jan. 28, 1996
Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
XXXI Jan. 26, 1997
Green Bay 35, New England 21
XXXII Jan. 25, 1998
Denver 31, Green Bay 24
XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999
Denver 34, Atlanta 19
XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000
St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7
XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002
New England 20, St. Louis 17
XXXVII Jan. 26, 2003 Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
XXXVIII Feb. 1, 2004
New England 32, Carolina 29
XXXIX Feb. 6, 2005
New England 24, Philadelphia 21
XL Feb. 5, 2006
Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
XLI Feb. 4, 2007
Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
XLII Feb. 3, 2008
New York Giants 17, New England 14
XLIII Feb. 1, 2009
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23
XLIV Feb. 7, 2010
New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17
XLV Feb. 6, 2011
Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25
XLVI Feb. 5, 2012
New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17
XLVII Feb. 3, 2013 Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31
XLVIII Feb. 2, 2014
Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8
XLIX Feb. 1, 2015
New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
50 Feb. 7, 2016
Denver Broncos 24, Carolina Panthers 10
LI Feb. 5, 2017
New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28
Footnote. In super bowl 25, Phil Simms, was hurt, but had he played, the percentage goes up to 45 out of 51 or 88.2% of the time you need an elite level QB to win the super bowl.
^^^ Is the above grading fair? I think so.