FordFairLane draft grades

[SteveA]

So why is Bush worth a first, second and third round pick?

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Price is what you pay, value is what you get. If we get the value then the cost is worth it. I wasn't keen on a 2nd either, but they did make a bold ******* move. So props there.

I was just ******* with you on the grades.

 

[Iron95]

Wasn't Jack Lambert too small? Troy was too short? Rocky Blier had one foot.

 

[Litos]

So Murray was a "B" grade as well, since the cost of taking him was 1/1?

Murray? didwe draft him? I really don't care about what other teams do, it might be an F for all I care, I would have kept Rosen and traded back to get one of the top Tackles and another talented kid

 

[Steeltime]

Murray? didwe draft him? I really don't care about what other teams do, it might be an F for all I care, I would have kept Rosen and traded back to get one of the top Tackles and another talented kid

No, I was pointing out that analyzing a draft selection by what he "cost" is not a valid approach. No pick is more valuable than 1/1, so shouldn't every player selected 1/1 be deemed a "B" grade, unless the guy turns out to be a HOF player?

Or perhaps the player selected 1/1 is a damn fine player who makes the team a playoff contender and one that can challenge for postseason success, and is thereby worth the pick.

That's the point.

 

[Litos]

I thought I listed my reasoning but here I go again.

Zach Thomas, London Fletcher and as Ike pointed out Sam Mills are the only pro bowl level ILB at under 6’ that I can come up with. Maybe I missed someone but considering how many pro bowl MLB’s there been since the super bowl era that cards are stacked a little against him.

If you are asking why being short and smaller is a concern then I’ll list those out.

Coverage- just like a 5-8 CB they are few and far between that pan out. Athleticism can only overcome so much when you are matched up on someone physically larger than you.

Run defense- again, when you are asked to stack and shed a 320 guard size matters.

Are those things we can assist him on? Yes, by not putting him in those positions. Lets not match him up on a 6-6 Travis Kelce by design. Lets have him shoot gaps and run side to side not blitz the LG to try to stuff the run. But the thing is the offense is going to try to force him to cover that tight end or run at him with a pulling guard.

Time will tell what Bush becomes but I’m not bashing him. He’s an above average athlete and a very smart player. He checks a lot of boxes. My problem is he’s not light years better of a prospect that Jerome Baker who went in the third round last year. So why is Bush worth a first, second and third round pick?


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I agree we can't give it an A straight up but calling him above average as an athlete? the kid is seriously gifted:

40 Yard Dash
4.43 SECONDS

Bench Press
21 REPS

Vertical Jump
40.5 INCHES

Broad Jump
124.0 INCHES

3 Cone Drill
6.93 SECONDS

20 Yd Shuttle
4.23 SECONDS

 

[Litos]

No, I was pointing out that analyzing a draft selection by what he "cost" is not a valid approach. No pick is more valuable than 1/1, so shouldn't every player selected 1/1 be deemed a "B" grade, unless the guy turns out to be a HOF player?

Or perhaps the player selected 1/1 is a damn fine player who makes the team a playoff contender and one that can challenge for postseason success, and is thereby worth the pick.

That's the point.

as I said before, he has the skills to be pretty good but to be worth all that we traded away he needs to prove it, if he had better numbers regarding splash plays it would be an A for me, but right now lacking some stats in his boxscore I see it as a B. It could become an A but that's true for every player in the draft

 

[deljzc]

This is the first draft season I've kind of "missed" on in over a decade. Didn't review tape of prospects. No Big Board (first time since 2005). I was on vacation down in the Outer Banks the week of the draft with the family and didn't even watch all that much TV coverage.

So I'm catching up on things and I'm being up front that I've literally put in 1/100th the time into this debate as I normally do.

I've watched four game films on Devin Bush today (vs. Penn State, vs. Ohio State, vs. Notre Dame and vs. Michigan St.). All of this is readily available at youtube if you search for "Devin Bush vs."

This is my initial opinion (I have read very little "expert" opinion on other websites).

He is not Ryan Shazier. Different type of player. Speed is different on film. Shazier was a monster coming downhill on things. His click-and-close speed was rare. Bush does not play this way. Very few plays behind the line of scrimmage except for his sacks. Had a more "read-and-react" job duty at Michigan. Shazier's speed was more like a rear-wheel drive car while Bush is a front-wheel drive car. There's just a difference. Bush's speed and athleticism show up in different ways. Very good sideline to sideline. Covers a lot of ground. Can flip hips and trail better than Shazier could but Shazier was better in soft zones underneath with longer wingspan and catch radius. Because he delays on his driving down into gaps like Shazier did makes far fewer errors in gap responsibility.

Don't read too much into sack numbers. Is average at best as a pass rusher and success came mostly on stunts, delays and scheme/free looks. Good against RB's but gets engulfed easily when good offensive lines pick him up as a blitzer. Needs to do a better job of slipping blocks and getting low as he often plays high on initial blocker contact. Is exceptional at following the flow of a play sideline to sideline. Protects legs very well in traffic and is rarely on the ground. Many of his tackles are downfield however after a "successful play" by the offense. Speed does not show up when he trails RB's and WR's on crossing routes and short arms prohibit success in man-under coverage at times. Looks good positionally in coverage but often doesn't stop good passes thrown into NFL windows.

Bush is a very solid prospect, but I saw very few (if any) plays that made me say "top-10" talent. I think the pick was a reach as compared to other drafts and talent/position match and was driven by our need (the release of Bostic right after this happened showed how much they didn't like him) and the current need of other teams for this type player (thus increasing cost not only in draft spot, but trade up cost). He does fit the mold of Bobby Wagner, Roquan Smith and Jarred Davis but this is not a "splash" player Tomlin loves to talk about but he is not Patrick Willis or Luke Kuechley good (and other top-10 ILB's).

He will fit. He will be an immediate improvement. And if he keeps his head on straight will be a long time starter under Tomlin no matter his performance.

 

[Steeltime]

as I said before, he has the skills to be pretty good but to be worth all that we traded away he needs to prove it, if he had better numbers regarding splash plays it would be an A for me, but right now lacking some stats in his boxscore I see it as a B. It could become an A but that's true for every player in the draft

The guy from Northern Illinois had a ton of "splash" plays. You know what that's worth on opening day? Nothing.

Bush was expensive. But so is a Rolex - for a reason. Bush has elite physical traits. He can allow the Steelers to leave him on the field for 3 downs, and not sub out. That of course matters when a team goes no-huddle. Like, say ... most teams against the Steelers base defense.

 

[slashsteel]

You can disagree all you want. It doesn't change fact. The FACT is that they had a better winning percentage without him. What the Steelers believe or what anyone believes doesn't really matter. How many times on this board do we disparage "pro-bowlers" from other teams. All the time. How many times do we say it's a popularity contest? And it is. So you can't now use that to prove how great a player is when we all know what it really is. Wasn't Derrick Carr a pro-bowler?

I don't know what they have in Bush. Neither do you or them. I can only look at the film. Before the draft I said I didn't want to move up for him because of his issues. I still feel that way. We will see what he does.

You can spin the win loss crap all you want his impact was more than just with wins and losses. And comparing wins and losses doesn't lessen his impact. In your mind it does. Most others it doesn't. Most people know how the D has struggled without him. And yes the Steelers opinion matters more than mine and yours.

So fine we agree to disagree on this no biggie.

And I watch tape too. As does others.

Your concerns to me is overinflated. My opinion we can agree to disagree here too.

I will say I like a lot of your stuff, opinions. I just disagree on the subject matter.

 

[Litos]

The guy from Northern Illinois had a ton of "splash" plays. You know what that's worth on opening day? Nothing.

Bush was expensive. But so is a Rolex - for a reason. Bush has elite physical traits. He can allow the Steelers to leave him on the field for 3 downs, and not sub out. That of course matters when a team goes no-huddle. Like, say ... most teams against the Steelers base defense.

well yeah, that's why I gave him a B despite costing us a 2nd and a "4th", you want me to give him an A? then he should have had more splash plays Plus his athletic attributes and intangibles.

 

[slashsteel]

I thought I listed my reasoning but here I go again.

Zach Thomas, London Fletcher and as Ike pointed out Sam Mills are the only pro bowl level ILB at under 6’ that I can come up with. Maybe I missed someone but considering how many pro bowl MLB’s there been since the super bowl era that cards are stacked a little against him.

If you are asking why being short and smaller is a concern then I’ll list those out.

Coverage- just like a 5-8 CB they are few and far between that pan out. Athleticism can only overcome so much when you are matched up on someone physically larger than you.

Run defense- again, when you are asked to stack and shed a 320 guard size matters.

Are those things we can assist him on? Yes, by not putting him in those positions. Lets not match him up on a 6-6 Travis Kelce by design. Lets have him shoot gaps and run side to side not blitz the LG to try to stuff the run. But the thing is the offense is going to try to force him to cover that tight end or run at him with a pulling guard.

Time will tell what Bush becomes but I’m not bashing him. He’s an above average athlete and a very smart player. He checks a lot of boxes. My problem is he’s not light years better of a prospect that Jerome Baker who went in the third round last year. So why is Bush worth a first, second and third round pick?


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I think he is a better prospect than Jerome Baker.

I think he is what the D needs, a film study,leader,fast,athletic.instinctual total package LBer.

 

[Scott109]

They beat the pats*** last year without him too. FACT. They lost to ******* Jax 30-9 with him. They were 3-3 in the playoffs with him. Losing to New England, Denver and Baltimore while beating dynasties like the bungles (with a backup QB), Miami (with a backup QB), and KC with Alex Smith. FACTS.

I know this is hard to believe but Shazier wasn't some great mythical ILB. He was a good one but not great and he sure as hell didn't do anything great in the playoffs.

FACT. You just proved my point that it is a meaningless statistic since there are way too many variables. They lost to the Jags 30-9 with Shazier. FACT: Ben threw 5 picks and 2 were returned for touchdowns but with your logic the Steelers lost the game because of Shazier since the Steelers have a better win percentage without him. If only Shazier did not play in that game, the Steelers would have won or at least had a much better chance to win since the Steeler record is better without him.

I agree that Shazier had some short comings. He really struggled his rookie year but he was getting better every year. That is also the reason I expect Bush to have struggles this year and if he does, I will not freak out over one year. But don’t use a meaningless statistic like the Steelers win percentage without Shazier as some “proof” that Shazier was not good or the Steelers are better without him.

As far as Shazier sure as hell never doing anything great in the playoffs, did you think him stripping the ball from Jeremy Hill as the Bengals were running out the clock for the win was great? FACT. I did!

 

[Ike Kelly]

I said he’s a leader and a very cerebral player who will help the players around him. If he’s London Fletcher I’ll eat my grading of him. But there are concerns and he did cost a lot of draft picks. Those are the facts I based my draft grade on him.


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No problem Ford. As I said you had some valid points. Will have to agree to disagree about the “cost a lot of draft picks”. Technically only a second round and next years 3rd, of which Pitt will receive an extra 3rd anyway, was used for the trade. Fair value for 10 spots and in the top 10.


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[slashsteel]

No problem Ford. As I said you had some valid points. Will have to agree to disagree about the “cost a lot of draft picks”. Technically only a second round and next years 3rd, of which Pitt will receive an extra 3rd anyway, was used for the trade. Fair value for 10 spots and in the top 10.


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To get a team to move out of the top ten, you can't think giving them peanuts will get the job done. And like Colbert said they had the draft capital to make it work.

 

[ark steel]

He has the same # of ints and more PDs than shazier in college.

 

[ark steel]

To get a team to move out of the top ten, you can't think giving them peanuts will get the job done. And like Colbert said they had the draft capital to make it work.

You have to have someone willing to trade with you, more than anything else, and then the capital they want.

There were stories that we DID try to trade up for Evans. Either teams were not interested in trading out or wanted more than we were willing to give.

For roquan Smith , it would have taken our entire draft tonget to 8.

I didn't look to see what it would have taken to get to Tremaine Edmunds or Van Der Esch. Im 100% positive Dallas wasn't gonna trade out and let us take VDE.

All this presumes that did NOT make calls for the others and it didn't work out.

 

[Vader]

FACT. You just proved my point that it is a meaningless statistic since there are way too many variables. They lost to the Jags 30-9 with Shazier. FACT: Ben threw 5 picks and 2 were returned for touchdowns but with your logic the Steelers lost the game because of Shazier since the Steelers have a better win percentage without him. If only Shazier did not play in that game, the Steelers would have won or at least had a much better chance to win since the Steeler record is better without him.

I agree that Shazier had some short comings. He really struggled his rookie year but he was getting better every year. That is also the reason I expect Bush to have struggles this year and if he does, I will not freak out over one year. But don’t use a meaningless statistic like the Steelers win percentage without Shazier as some “proof” that Shazier was not good or the Steelers are better without him.

As far as Shazier sure as hell never doing anything great in the playoffs, did you think him stripping the ball from Jeremy Hill as the Bengals were running out the clock for the win was great? FACT. I did!

This is why I can't discuss football on this board very often. So no player is really good because we can't just look at player stats because stats suck. Can't look at team stats because of too many variables. But somehow you can look at ONE individual PLAY and find greatness. Absolutely ******* nuts.

So I can declare Bush a bust right now because no matter how great or poorly he plays it's just variable stats right? You people can't make up your mind. The fact is that he is an undersized LB who everybody thinks is the second coming of Lambert simply because he is fast and the Steelers drafted him. If he goes to the bungles he's a undersized midget ILB that couldn't hold Shazier's jock. It's the same every year. A few years ago it was Archer. He's going to be ******* great. That's when 3rd round picks were really 4th round picks because Archer couldn't be seen as a reach in the 4th round.

My analysis of Bush stands. We'll see in a few years if I was right. But by then everybody will have moved on to the next great player and the next after that. The only way this gets brought back up again is if he does great then I will hear it every day. IF he busts or isn't a pro-bowler then it fades away as quickly as it started.

 

[FordFairLane]

I agree we can't give it an A straight up but calling him above average as an athlete? the kid is seriously gifted:

40 Yard Dash
4.43 SECONDS

Bench Press
21 REPS

Vertical Jump
40.5 INCHES

Broad Jump
124.0 INCHES

3 Cone Drill
6.93 SECONDS

20 Yd Shuttle
4.23 SECONDS

Jerome Baker
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jerome-baker

Devin Bush
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/devin-bush

Ryan Shazier
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/ryan-shazier

Are we going to split hairs over words. I didn’t say he was a poor athlete. Shazier was a freak of nature. Bush and Baker are “gifted” athletes. Better?


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[FordFairLane]

I think he is a better prospect than Jerome Baker.

I think he is what the D needs, a film study,leader,fast,athletic.instinctual total package LBer.

I 100% agree! I had Baker rated as an early to mid second round pick. I had Bush rated as second half of the first round pick. So imo giving up a pick that should get him at #20 plus giving up a 2nd and 3rd was very costly. I feel Bush will be a good player and likely a starter sooner than later. He has a high floor. But if he isn’t London Fletcher we have up too much.


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[FordFairLane]

No problem Ford. As I said you had some valid points. Will have to agree to disagree about the “cost a lot of draft picks”. Technically only a second round and next years 3rd, of which Pitt will receive an extra 3rd anyway, was used for the trade. Fair value for 10 spots and in the top 10.


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I said the value for the trade was correct. We did not overspend on the trade up to 10.


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[tapeANaspirin2it]

No, I was pointing out that analyzing a draft selection by what he "cost" is not a valid approach. No pick is more valuable than 1/1, so shouldn't every player selected 1/1 be deemed a "B" grade, unless the guy turns out to be a HOF player?

Or perhaps the player selected 1/1 is a damn fine player who makes the team a playoff contender and one that can challenge for postseason success, and is thereby worth the pick.

That's the point.

you absolutely have to factor cost into the draft grade. You have to consider your team needs, and how well you addressed them.

So you can't just look at Bush alone. You must consider that you had to give up your 2nd rounder to get him. That was likely the reason why no pass rusher was drafted until late.

If you ignore the value of picks then why not just trade up every single year? A top 10 player is more talented than a guy picked at 20, so why not give away the 2nd round pick every single year to move into the top 10 and grab a better prospect?

The fact is the steelers did not take the ILB problem seriously. It started with not even having a backup for Shazier and it continued with not making a real effort to fix it until this year where they were backed into a corner with ILB being thin.

 

[Scott109]

This is why I can't discuss football on this board very often. So no player is really good because we can't just look at player stats because stats suck. Can't look at team stats because of too many variables. But somehow you can look at ONE individual PLAY and find greatness. Absolutely ******* nuts.

So I can declare Bush a bust right now because no matter how great or poorly he plays it's just variable stats right? You people can't make up your mind. The fact is that he is an undersized LB who everybody thinks is the second coming of Lambert simply because he is fast and the Steelers drafted him. If he goes to the bungles he's a undersized midget ILB that couldn't hold Shazier's jock. It's the same every year. A few years ago it was Archer. He's going to be ******* great. That's when 3rd round picks were really 4th round picks because Archer couldn't be seen as a reach in the 4th round.

My analysis of Bush stands. We'll see in a few years if I was right. But by then everybody will have moved on to the next great player and the next after that. The only way this gets brought back up again is if he does great then I will hear it every day. IF he busts or isn't a pro-bowler then it fades away as quickly as it started.

Boo hoo. I and probably most people never said Shazier was going to wear a gold jacket but it was early in his career and he seemed to get better each year. What is nuts, especially since you watch so much film, is that you can’t see that the Steeler defense has gotten worse since he was injured. Just about every NFL analyst and Steeler fan has said so. Most draft analysts said ILB was the Steelers biggest need because of it. Obviously, the Steelers thought so too.

I know, but the Steelers have a better win percentage without Shazier. Maybe you are right and if only Shazier was better the Steelers would have won that Jags game you sited, even with Ben throwing 5 picks with 2 returned for touchdowns.

Now, is Bush the answer? Nobody knows and only time will tell. Most but not all of the national draft analysts thought it was a good pick and had Bush highly rated so it is not just homer Steeler fans but like I said, only time will tell.

I did not like the Edmunds pick last year but I am willing to give him a chance. If he busts I will not be happy because I am a Steeler fan. I will also not be posting on here saying how right I was and I know more than the Steelers like some people do.

 

[slashsteel]

This is why I can't discuss football on this board very often. So no player is really good because we can't just look at player stats because stats suck. Can't look at team stats because of too many variables. But somehow you can look at ONE individual PLAY and find greatness. Absolutely ******* nuts.

So I can declare Bush a bust right now because no matter how great or poorly he plays it's just variable stats right? You people can't make up your mind. The fact is that he is an undersized LB who everybody thinks is the second coming of Lambert simply because he is fast and the Steelers drafted him. If he goes to the bungles he's a undersized midget ILB that couldn't hold Shazier's jock. It's the same every year. A few years ago it was Archer. He's going to be ******* great. That's when 3rd round picks were really 4th round picks because Archer couldn't be seen as a reach in the 4th round.

My analysis of Bush stands. We'll see in a few years if I was right. But by then everybody will have moved on to the next great player and the next after that. The only way this gets brought back up again is if he does great then I will hear it every day. IF he busts or isn't a pro-bowler then it fades away as quickly as it started.

Stats never tell the whole picture only part of it. Some stats are inflated by scheme, some by strength of opponent, some stats mislead. A LB can have a lot of chase tackles but give up more yardage than desirable. Some pass defenses are extreme because they are targeted because of deficiency, sometimes it is because the player opposite of them is better.Some are college maxed out. Some have attractive stats due to someone else getting a lot of attention.

We can go on and on and on.

Nobody anointed Bush anything but what this D needs from a deficient standpoint. I doubt anyone thought he was the next coming of Lambert. That is a different type of scheme, different type of player.

I mean really 99% of the board gets every picks potential weakness and strength.

But I think it is ok not to negatively label them before they play a down.

What is nuts is discounting every positive to focus in on the negative, because a person has 1/100 evaluated a player in comparison to the Steelers and just know they aren't all that.

If Bush upgrades the D and they play better it is a win.

If he busts out he busts out won't be the first time or the last time.

But for what the team needs based of greatest weakness he is a fit.

Until proven otherwise.

 

[Coryea]

you absolutely have to factor cost into the draft grade. You have to consider your team needs, and how well you addressed them.

So you can't just look at Bush alone. You must consider that you had to give up your 2nd rounder to get him. That was likely the reason why no pass rusher was drafted until late.

If you ignore the value of picks then why not just trade up every single year? A top 10 player is more talented than a guy picked at 20, so why not give away the 2nd round pick every single year to move into the top 10 and grab a better prospect?

The fact is the steelers did not take the ILB problem seriously. It started with not even having a backup for Shazier and it continued with not making a real effort to fix it until this year where they were backed into a corner with ILB being thin.

There was what many say to be a very good pass rusher there when we picked in rd3 and we passed on him, so can't say we didn't take a pass rusher because we traded our 2nd round pick

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[ark steel]

you absolutely have to factor cost into the draft grade. You have to consider your team needs, and how well you addressed them.

So you can't just look at Bush alone. You must consider that you had to give up your 2nd rounder to get him. That was likely the reason why no pass rusher was drafted until late.

If you ignore the value of picks then why not just trade up every single year? A top 10 player is more talented than a guy picked at 20, so why not give away the 2nd round pick every single year to move into the top 10 and grab a better prospect?

The fact is the steelers did not take the ILB problem seriously. It started with not even having a backup for Shazier and it continued with not making a real effort to fix it until this year where they were backed into a corner with ILB being thin.

They did have a backup to Shazier. Not a GOOD one, but he got hurt the same game, which is why we had to bring in Spence.