FordFairLane draft grades

[Litos]

There was what many say to be a very good pass rusher there when we picked in rd3 and we passed on him, so can't say we didn't take a pass rusher because we traded our 2nd round pick

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they must be really confident in Ola and even Dupree who I admit might be an 8 sack player if 100% healthy

 

[Steeltime]

you absolutely have to factor cost into the draft grade. You have to consider your team needs, and how well you addressed them.

So you can't just look at Bush alone. You must consider that you had to give up your 2nd rounder to get him. That was likely the reason why no pass rusher was drafted until late.

Maybe, but the Steelers also left a pretty good pass rusher on the board in the 3rd round (Winovich). If the Steelers stay at 20, they probably go CB and get Murphy? Or if they in fact value an edge rusher, they take Sweat. But they apparently don't think they need a high-end edge rusher, so no Sweat.

Say they go Murphy. Then they can go pass rusher in round 2 and get ... Zach Allen or Chase Winovich, the two best pass rushers to go between pick 52 and 66, when the Steelers had their next pick. So the entire process in your analysis depends on getting Sweat, who is an edge rusher where the Steelers passed on a pretty good edge rusher at pick 66.

If you ignore the value of picks then why not just trade up every single year? A top 10 player is more talented than a guy picked at 20, so why not give away the 2nd round pick every single year to move into the top 10 and grab a better prospect?

Two points, one of which you basically ignore in your statement. First, the team needs to look at the talent pool, and their needs, short and long-term. ILB was a crying need, in the 2018 draft and the 2019 draft. The Steelers basically ignored the need in 2018. Not a good move. You point out that the team could have moved up in 2018 and drafted an elite ILB in Vander Esch.

Agreed. But they didn't. They sat in place once again, and because they were drafting at 28, saw the elite players drafted ahead of them. So move to 2019 ... do the Steelers once again watch the LB'ers go off the board? Apparently yes. They draft ... who, Sweat? He is not an ILBer, tape. He is incredibly gifted, like Tremaine Edmunds in 2018 - another OLB'er. So who? Murphy? Okay, good selection.

And the middle of the field remains a cancer. Oh, look, another TE running free. Wow, another slow ILB'er chasing a slot receiver like Charlie Brown running towards the football.

Second, in my estimation, the best ILB'er in the 2018 draft was Roquan Smith. He went 8th. To move from 28 to 8, the Steelers would have needed to trade (wait for it) their 1st round pick in 2018, their 2018 2nd round pick, their 2018 3rd round pick, and their 2nd round pick in 2019. Would you have dealt that for Smith?

Smith is 6'1", 236 lbs., ran a 4.51 40, has 32" arms. Bush is 5'11", 234 lbs., with 32" arms, ran a 4.43 40, posted a 40" vertical, 124" broad jump.

The two guys are about as close to one another as I can imagine. The knock on Smith? "Too small to play inside." Yeah, sure. He had 121 tackles last year, 5 sacks, 5 passes defensed.

So to sum up: Moving up in 2018 to get the only true ILB'er would have cost a lot more, to get a strikingly similar player.

Third, should the Steelers have moved from 28 to 17-19 to get Vander Esch? Yes. I agree with you. That move would have given them a presence at ILB'er. But they didn't ... and ILB'er remained a black hole of suck last season.

Should they have simply said, "Ahh, @#$% it" and waited for the 2020 draft? Yeah, no.

Finally, you ask about trading the 2nd round pick to move up every draft. Every draft? No. Some drafts? Damn straight. Would you prefer having Artie Burnt and another pick, or Wiliam Jackson and one less pick? Bud Dupree and a 2nd rounder who turned out to be Senquez Golson, or Vic Beasley and no Golson?

So deal a 2nd rounder to move up 10 spots every draft? No. Deal a 2nd rounder to move out of the 20's and get a player with elite physical tools, a good pedigree, to improve a position desperately in need of upgrade? Yes.

 

[Hines57]

Given that we immediately cut Bostic, Bush is going to be option 1B behind Barron and it won't be long before he is the starting ILB over Barron. How you give that grade a C is beyond me. The 2nd that we gave up was a big cost to us sure, but we got us a future starter at the biggest position of need.

 

[Superman]

For me, it comes down to:
is our Defense going to be better with or without Bush?

sure, we gave up a 2nd and next year's 3rd, but the draft itself didn't unfold the way MANY expected it to. Hell, Mack Wilson, the 3rd best ILB didn't get picked until the 4th. Bush was going Round 1 - be it us, Denver or Cincinnati. Denver was said to be taking him, but our draft offer was too good for them to pass up. The average LB is 6'2". Bush is 5'11"

With Bush and Barron on the field at the same time, the pure speed of our defense is astronomically better than it was last season. Yes, we could have traded up in the previous draft for a ILB but that would have involved going from 28th to 19th or 16th. How much collateral would that have required? To get ahead of Dallas for VanderEsch, we'd have had to get to at least 18th with Minnesota. Per the value chart, that's 900 points. That would have cost our 1st and 2nd rounder. To get Edmunds, we'd have had to trade ahead of Buffalo and finagled a(nother) trade with Oakland. That would have cost the same in draft picks as what we did with Bush.

Are Terrell Edmunds, James Washington and Okorafor that much better than Tremaine Edmunds? It's even been reported that Terrell Edmunds was going to be picked higher than his projection --- after we took him.

**** - look at the speed we now have with not only Bush and Barron, but also now with Edmunds, Davis, Haden and Nelson. Maybe our DC decides to let Barron and Bush cover the TE/WR crossing instead of putting TJ Watt in coverage downfield.

I see no reason why Bush is not an A+ pick.

By comparison, Mike Singletary was 5'11", 230. Was that ****** too short?

 

[Hines57]

For me, it comes down to:
is our Defense going to be better with or without Bush?

sure, we gave up a 2nd and next year's 3rd, but the draft itself didn't unfold the way MANY expected it to. Hell, Mack Wilson, the 3rd best ILB didn't get picked until the 4th. Bush was going Round 1 - be it us, Denver or Cincinnati. Denver was said to be taking him, but our draft offer was too good for them to pass up. The average LB is 6'2". Bush is 5'11"

With Bush and Barron on the field at the same time, the pure speed of our defense is astronomically better than it was last season. Yes, we could have traded up in the previous draft for a ILB but that would have involved going from 28th to 19th or 16th. How much collateral would that have required? To get ahead of Dallas for VanderEsch, we'd have had to get to at least 18th with Minnesota. Per the value chart, that's 900 points. That would have cost our 1st and 2nd rounder. To get Edmunds, we'd have had to trade ahead of Buffalo and finagled a(nother) trade with Oakland. That would have cost the same in draft picks as what we did with Bush.

Are Terrell Edmunds, James Washington and Okorafor that much better than Tremaine Edmunds? It's even been reported that Terrell Edmunds was going to be picked higher than his projection --- after we took him.

**** - look at the speed we now have with not only Bush and Barron, but also now with Edmunds, Davis, Haden and Nelson. Maybe our DC decides to let Barron and Bush cover the TE/WR crossing instead of putting TJ Watt in coverage downfield.

I see no reason why Bush is not an A+ pick.

By comparison, Mike Singletary was 5'11", 230. Was that ****** too short?

Next year's third should be a late round 3rd and we should get a 3rd round comp pick for Bell. That essentially negates the 3rd rounder we traded to move up for Bush.

We've for years seen teams move up to get better players in the draft and we've sat back and taken who has come to us. In some cases that's worked very well but we had an absolute need with this pick. Bush fit that need and they needed to make this move to get the value out of the position.

 

[Vader]

Boo hoo. I and probably most people never said Shazier was going to wear a gold jacket but it was early in his career and he seemed to get better each year. What is nuts, especially since you watch so much film, is that you can’t see that the Steeler defense has gotten worse since he was injured. Just about every NFL analyst and Steeler fan has said so. Most draft analysts said ILB was the Steelers biggest need because of it. Obviously, the Steelers thought so too.

I know, but the Steelers have a better win percentage without Shazier. Maybe you are right and if only Shazier was better the Steelers would have won that Jags game you sited, even with Ben throwing 5 picks with 2 returned for touchdowns.

Now, is Bush the answer? Nobody knows and only time will tell. Most but not all of the national draft analysts thought it was a good pick and had Bush highly rated so it is not just homer Steeler fans but like I said, only time will tell.

I did not like the Edmunds pick last year but I am willing to give him a chance. If he busts I will not be happy because I am a Steeler fan. I will also not be posting on here saying how right I was and I know more than the Steelers like some people do.

boo hoo your ******* self.

The fact is that most on here are pure homers and love everything the Steelers do regardless of what it is. Reality isn't in the picture. If the stats are good for a player then they point to stats. If they don't like the stats they point to "heart" or "character" or some other cliche. The sport writes are idiots unless they say what they want them to say then they are right. PFF is a rag EXCEPT when it loves what the steelers do then it is a valuable part of the puzzle. If the Steelers had a taken a 6'4" ILB that ran a 4.4 40 We'd hear about how big he was and how he could now take on blockers. But since Bush is 5'11 size doesn't matter... but wait... Justin Layne is big so size does matter. Speed matters because Bush is fast.. but wait.. speed doesn't matter because Snell is slow... Same **** all the time. Yes, I know they are different positions but it doesn't matter. You could swap the positions and get the exact same feed back.

I just try to look at the player not the team. Sorry that offended so many.

 

[slashsteel]

I personally am not offended I just disagree.

But I am sure there will be other times I agree.

 

[FordFairLane]

boo hoo your ******* self.

The fact is that most on here are pure homers and love everything the Steelers do regardless of what it is. Reality isn't in the picture. If the stats are good for a player then they point to stats. If they don't like the stats they point to "heart" or "character" or some other cliche. The sport writes are idiots unless they say what they want them to say then they are right. PFF is a rag EXCEPT when it loves what the steelers do then it is a valuable part of the puzzle. If the Steelers had a taken a 6'4" ILB that ran a 4.4 40 We'd hear about how big he was and how he could now take on blockers. But since Bush is 5'11 size doesn't matter... but wait... Justin Layne is big so size does matter. Speed matters because Bush is fast.. but wait.. speed doesn't matter because Snell is slow... Same **** all the time. Yes, I know they are different positions but it doesn't matter. You could swap the positions and get the exact same feed back.

I just try to look at the player not the team. Sorry that offended so many.

Exactly. At the bar with my friends I bought a round and cheered with the best of them. The next day sober I started really digging into the pick. Now I had him as our #1 option at 20 so it’s not like I dislike the player. But let’s take everything into consideration. What it took to move to get him and the still concerns about height and production.

If you think size doesn’t matter just watch the Michigan game vs Penn State. I don’t think he gets off a block the whole game. There’s one play where he holds Saquon to a 3 yard gain.

https://youtu.be/wL5MM6xV6cw


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[Steeltime]

Exactly. At the bar with my friends I bought a round and cheered with the best of them. The next day sober I started really digging into the pick. Now I had him as our #1 option at 20 ...

He's not there at 20. Given that, who is your pick? And who is your pick at 52?

 

[slashsteel]

Exactly. At the bar with my friends I bought a round and cheered with the best of them. The next day sober I started really digging into the pick. Now I had him as our #1 option at 20 so it’s not like I dislike the player. But let’s take everything into consideration. What it took to move to get him and the still concerns about height and production.

If you think size doesn’t matter just watch the Michigan game vs Penn State. I don’t think he gets off a block the whole game. There’s one play where he holds Saquon to a 3 yard gain.

https://youtu.be/wL5MM6xV6cw


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That wasn't from last season. And that game in question it looked like a lot of defensive issues. I don't think you can blame that day primarily on Bush.

 

[FordFairLane]

He's not there at 20. Given that, who is your pick? And who is your pick at 52?

Look at my mock along mock thread


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[FordFairLane]

That wasn't from last season. And that game in question it looked like a lot of defensive issues. I don't think you can blame that day primarily on Bush.

I can see Bush not getting off blocks. Very first run that goes to the house Bush was ate up my a guard. Look at 3:17... sorry I know Saquon is good but Bush looked bad that game.


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[Scott109]

Sorry that offended so many.

You did not offend me either. You seem to be the only one who got offended and all bent. I appreciate your opinion and film study, I just don’t agree with it in this case. There are valid concerns about Bush but most people think the positives outweigh the negatives. It is not just the homers on here. I am sure you saw were most of the national draft analysts had Bush mocked and ranked. Louis Riiddick, who has interviewed for NFL GM jobs, called Bush the pound for pound best player in the draft. But, you might end up being right. The best GMs make mistakes.

I have seen plenty of picks that people on this board have not liked. I did not like the Edmunds pick last year. Luckily, most people are not like Coach and have to start a thread saying, “Look at me! I was right and I know more than you and the Steelers too.”

 

[slashsteel]

I can see Bush not getting off blocks. Very first run that goes to the house Bush was ate up my a guard. Look at 3:17... sorry I know Saquon is good but Bush looked bad that game.


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K when evaling a young prospect don't you want to go to last years game tape?

As in a young player can improve from one year to another. Or in this case one game to another. As you didn't watch a series of games.

I am sure most young prospects will have a iffy game or two as well.

When you get a job eval do they just pick one day?

I know my evals come from ten charts.

A lot of jobs come from an overall body of work.

And the NFL evals come from more than one game as well. That is just as bad as someone watching highlight youtube videos.

When I watch a player I do a three game minimal, and even then I realise it is a small body of work. That I get a feel for the player, and have still come up wrong.

It is like we all could watch game film and half of us have one opinion, and the other half the other.

My point is again we are aware of potential issues, but there is no way to tell if they become NFL issues.

Obviously Jerry thinks he can run right through people. If that was him? or was it Butler who said that?

Anyways....

 

[slashsteel]

You did not offend me either. You seem to be the only one who got offended and all bent. I appreciate your opinion and film study, I just don’t agree with it in this case. There are valid concerns about Bush but most people think the positives outweigh the negatives. It is not just the homers on here. I am sure you saw were most of the national draft analysts had Bush mocked and ranked. Louis Riiddick, who has interviewed for NFL GM jobs, called Bush the pound for pound best player in the draft. But, you might end up being right.

I have seen plenty of picks that people on this board have not liked. I did not like the Edmunds pick last year. Luckily, most people are not like Coach and have to start a thread saying, “Look at me! I was right and I know more than you and the Steelers too.”

I saw three games from one prospect and was like man he looks overrated. Like he just flails around. Doesn't look like an impact player.

And the cat played like a pro bowler.

Which is why I try not to lock a player into he can't do this or that. Or he will be a liability here.

I seem to get better feel for players at training camp, look forward to seeing this crop up close.

 

[Bobby Bufford]

Devin Bush LB Michigan

Now I am going to take into consideration Bush cost us a our first, second and a 2020 third. This is my concern we gave up a lot (correct value though) for a linebacker under 6’ tall. I cannot think of a hall of fame or even pro bowl MLB that is under 6’ besides Zach Thomas and maybe London Fletcher. That said I like Bush and I like him better than White whom is roughly the same size and went ahead of Bush. The Steeler identified a need and the best player in the draft to fill it and to get that player they figured they’d have to get ahead of the Bengals. Well, they did and this draft and next draft will largely be defined by the player Bush becomes. I for one will be cheering and rooting for him as loud as any.

Sam Mills was only 5-9, and they built a statue of him. On the drafting of Zach Thomas and his lack of height, Jimmy Johnson said, "We don't need him to change lightbulbs." I have zero fears of Bush's height hurting his production.

 

[TDX27]

Sounds like a bunch of politicians. LOL. They will root against America or the Steelers/player, in this case, just so they can win an election/argument.

I hope Bush is a future HOF'er. I think the Steelers showed HUGE balls in moving up to get one of the best players in the draft (according to ALL the experts) to fill the BIGGEST need on the team.

 

[FordFairLane]

K when evaling a young prospect don't you want to go to last years game tape?

As in a young player can improve from one year to another. Or in this case one game to another. As you didn't watch a series of games.

I am sure most young prospects will have a iffy game or two as well.

When you get a job eval do they just pick one day?

I know my evals come from ten charts.

A lot of jobs come from an overall body of work.

And the NFL evals come from more than one game as well. That is just as bad as someone watching highlight youtube videos.

When I watch a player I do a three game minimal, and even then I realise it is a small body of work. That I get a feel for the player, and have still come up wrong.

It is like we all could watch game film and half of us have one opinion, and the other half the other.

My point is again we are aware of potential issues, but there is no way to tell if they become NFL issues.

Obviously Jerry thinks he can run right through people. If that was him? or was it Butler who said that?

Anyways....

https://youtu.be/qS_L-_6-yUA
Show me ONE splash play from Bush? Winovich has sacks, fumble recovery, TFL, being double blocked.
https://youtu.be/5z2VuUBu0ZI
4:00 saves a touchdown with a shoelace tackle
6:28 runs with a wr but his call for PI
6:40 blitz pressure

Better game as long as he was in space otherwise he’s being pushed around a lot by the offensive line.






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[slashsteel]

Here is an article from Michigan DC talking about Bush. Fricken homer.

https://Invalid Link - Check SN Hom...devin-bush-was-a-human-eraser-in-his-defense/

 

[slashsteel]

https://youtu.be/qS_L-_6-yUA
Show me ONE splash play from Bush? Winovich has sacks, fumble recovery, TFL, being double blocked.
https://youtu.be/5z2VuUBu0ZI
4:00 saves a touchdown with a shoelace tackle
6:28 runs with a wr but his call for PI
6:40 blitz pressure

Better game as long as he was in space otherwise he’s being pushed around a lot by the offensive line.






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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAa3Gk44WIA

one play he was hooked really held, got off it still managed to break off and beat to the sideline and make a tackle.

few plays Buch chases Sanders down from behind. I guess that isn't a splash play. SMH

I also saw him n coverage a lot with the QB throwing elsewhere.

 

[Ike Kelly]

Maybe, but the Steelers also left a pretty good pass rusher on the board in the 3rd round (Winovich). If the Steelers stay at 20, they probably go CB and get Murphy? Or if they in fact value an edge rusher, they take Sweat. But they apparently don't think they need a high-end edge rusher, so no Sweat.

Say they go Murphy. Then they can go pass rusher in round 2 and get ... Zach Allen or Chase Winovich, the two best pass rushers to go between pick 52 and 66, when the Steelers had their next pick. So the entire process in your analysis depends on getting Sweat, who is an edge rusher where the Steelers passed on a pretty good edge rusher at 66.

I have to say, to each their own, in regards how/when/why they believe the end did or did-not justified the means. Plain and simple, FO identified a player that they felt could really impact the team. Just as they did with Holmes and especially with Troy P.

As for Winovich, hey I am all for guys who grew up Steelers fans, family are long time Steeler fans, etc., but you have look at the player. Winovich may be a solid player, but he is already 24 years old. That is not conducive for a 3rd round player. He’s probably already maxed out build wise. And for Zach Allen, he’s a 3 technique player and would not fit well as a 5 tech. Neither would have been viable selections 52-66 had we had a pick there. Heck Chase I thought was over drafted, based on his age alone.


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[FordFairLane]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAa3Gk44WIA

one play he was hooked really held, got off it still managed to break off and beat to the sideline and make a tackle.

few plays Buch chases Sanders down from behind. I guess that isn't a splash play. SMH

I also saw him n coverage a lot with the QB throwing elsewhere.

Chasing a running back down from behind means you didn’t do your job if you are a middle linebacker.

https://youtu.be/FUMLokcugNc

Again find me a splash play? Watch from 6:40 on and it reminds me of Sean Spence out there.


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[Vader]

https://youtu.be/qS_L-_6-yUA
Show me ONE splash play from Bush? Winovich has sacks, fumble recovery, TFL, being double blocked.
https://youtu.be/5z2VuUBu0ZI
4:00 saves a touchdown with a shoelace tackle
6:28 runs with a wr but his call for PI
6:40 blitz pressure

Better game as long as he was in space otherwise he’s being pushed around a lot by the offensive line.

It's always "well it's just one game" or "Well it's just a couple of games". It's never going to be Bush not doing well. Remember "Everybody has bad days". Now try to use that logic with a player someone else drafts and see what you get. I didn't like Bush before the draft so I'm not going to change my mind just because the Steelers drafted him. I'll root for him to do well but players don't magically change stripes when they get drafted.

I've already broke down the OSU game and the MSU game. But those are just two games and he can't be judged on bad games. Only good games. Those he can be judged on.

 

[ark steel]

Chasing a running back down from behind means you didn’t do your job if you are a middle linebacker

I don't know if you are talking a out a specific play, but it, certainly, does not mean that, in general. It could very well mean you had a specific assignment, someone else didn't carry out their's and now you are stuck chasing a guy down from behind.

 

[Superman]

Ford, I saw your mock along and it's hard to disagree with who you chose and where.

I, however, am stoked that we have Bush. I feel that adding him and subtracting Bostic was a huge gain. I see the defense - LBs in particular - is now a lot faster. We were gashed time and time again by RBs getting to the holes well before any of our LBs not named Watt did. Bush and Barron will give the defense a better way to blitz, stunt, line up, etc. IMO, Bush and Barron are very comparable players. We can have both on the field at the same time. That, to me, makes the whole team better.

I don't completely disagree with taking Fant at 20 and not moving up, but I do believe moving up was the best thing we could do.

I also agree that I'd have rather had Hakeem Butler instead of Diontae Johnson, but at this point it is what it is. I dont care about the comparisons to A *****... just think we could have gotten him later and at this point don't believe he's anything special.