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Hottest Spring On Record Globally 2014

PoloMalo43 said:
Three of the hottest years in the U.S. not the world. When will you people learn that the facts you get from Heartland goons like Watts are not remotely qualified to be called facts?
Click to expand...
About the same time you learn that Michael Mann faked all his data. The hacked emails tell us so.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Is that what they're calling it now?
Click to expand...

Also, the problem with the Hoax is that the scientist involved aren't looking at all their models and asking "what else about our models might be wrong", they are looking for ways to justify that their original results are correct, but their timeline was wrong.
 
ark steel said:
Also, the problem with the Hoax is that the scientist involved aren't looking at all their models and asking "what else about our models might be wrong", they are looking for ways to justify that their original results are correct, but their timeline was wrong.
Click to expand...
I'm 53 and I figure I'll be around for another 30 years or so, maybe a few more if I'm lucky. I'm on the back 9 of life and I get that. I'm not concerned with changing PoloElfie's mind right now but assuming she is younger than me and around for say 50 years to see that the climate didn't change and nothing got warmer or colder than it ever was, as long as she remembers this and curses my name and says "That ************* Burgundy was right! Damn I hate my life!", I will smile down from the heavens and be good with it.
 
Just a shout out from the normal people - there is no significant influence on the Earth's climate from people. There isn't. At all. Find another cause, you idiots.
 
EdReed4Prez said:
*raises hand* Why does weather in certain areas (really hot Australia, really hot southwest US) count as proof of global warming, yet colder areas elsewhere are disregarded as "weather"?

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

If you bear with the length of this you should have a good grasp of the explanation for your question as it pertains to the northern hemisphere.

Jet Stream Changes Driving Extreme Weather Linked Again To Global Warming, Arctic Ice Loss

by Joe Romm Posted on August 19, 2014 at 4:50 pm

20140812_CA_trd-638x508.jpg


California is suffering through its worst drought on record, while the East Coast sees off-the-charts flooding. Both types of extremes are worsened by global warming as scientists have explained for decades.

But in recent years you may have noticed a disproportionate increase in record-smashing extreme weather and suspected that’s also linked to global warming. A new study from a team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) says you’re right. The PIK release explains:

Weather extremes in the summer — such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 — have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Man-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the rise.

A number of studies in recent years have linked this quantum jump in extreme weather to global warming and the warming-driven loss of Arctic ice (see here and here).

Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences has been at the forefront of this research. She explains her findings in this video.



A key point is that the path of the jet stream “typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate east, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow. Each large meander, or wave, within the jet stream is known as a Rossby wave.”

This new PIK study offers a specific mechanism for why we’re seeing this quantum leap in extreme weather — some Rossby waves are stalling out for extended periods of time: “the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified.”

Why is this happening? Here things get a little technical, as befits a study titled, “Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer.” But read on — our emerging understanding of why extreme weather has begun running amok may be one of the most important and consequential scientific findings in recent years:

We show that high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves, associated with resonance circulation regimes, lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events. Since the onset of rapid Arctic amplification around 2000, a cluster of resonance circulation regimes is observed involving wave numbers 7 and 8. This has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves with these wave numbers.

Note that the study doesn’t merely find that stalling Rossby waves lead to an increase in extreme weather events. It also leads to extreme heat events and extreme rainfall events becoming synchronized (as, for instance, has happened just last week).

Here’s what that increase since 2000 looks like:

Resonance-638x472.jpg

The number of planetary wave resonance events is shown as grey bars for each 4-year interval. While there used to be one or two events in a 4-year period, 2004-2007 saw three such events and 2008-2011 even five events. For comparison the red curve shows the change in Arctic temperature relative to that in the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere. Since 2000, the Arctic has warmed much faster than other latitudes [aka Arctic amplification]. Graph: PIK

Arctic amplification is the accelerated warming that occurs in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe’s human-driven warming. A key reason it occurs is that as the more reflective snow and ice melt in the Arctic, darker land and ocean are exposed — and they absorb more solar energy. Other elements of Arctic amplification are discussed here.

Resonance regimes are associated with standing waves, which under the right condition can have a very large amplitude. Quasi-resonant means “almost resonant,” as scientist-blogger Greg Laden writes in his detailed explanation of the study, “and resonant means that instead of the meanders meandering around, they sit in one place (almost).”

What is the specific link between stalling Rossby waves and Arctic amplification? The study concludes, “We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.”

What’s a double jet stream formation? Wikipedia notes, “Jet streams can split into two due to the formation of an upper-level closed low, that diverts a portion of the jet stream under its base, while the remainder of the jet moves by to its north.” Last year, Popular Mechanics had a good discussion in its article, “How the Dual Jet Stream Sparks This Weird Summer Weather.”

Here is the jet stream from May/June 2012:
jetstream-2012-638x398.jpg

And here is the double jet stream from May/June 2013, a period of very unusual weather in Europe and the U.S. — “McGrath, Alaska, hit 94 degrees on June 17, four degrees warmer than Miami, which sits 4200 miles closer to the equator.” In the graphic, the two jet-streams are the (small) green band of wind surrounding the Arctic and the (larger) one over the United States.
jetstream-double-0613-638x398.jpg


We have much more to learn about “Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather,” as made clear in a recent Nature Geoscience paper (with that title) written by several of the leading researchers in the field, including Francis. But the evidence is mounting that we have entered a new regime of extreme weather thanks to our as-yet unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gas.
 
PoloMalo43 said:
If you bear with the length of this you should have a good grasp of the explanation for your question as it pertains to the northern hemisphere.

Jet Stream Changes Driving Extreme Weather Linked Again To Global Warming, Arctic Ice Loss

by Joe Romm Posted on August 19, 2014 at 4:50 pm

20140812_CA_trd-638x508.jpg


California is suffering through its worst drought on record, while the East Coast sees off-the-charts flooding. Both types of extremes are worsened by global warming as scientists have explained for decades.

But in recent years you may have noticed a disproportionate increase in record-smashing extreme weather and suspected that’s also linked to global warming. A new study from a team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) says you’re right. The PIK release explains:

Weather extremes in the summer — such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 — have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Man-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the rise.

A number of studies in recent years have linked this quantum jump in extreme weather to global warming and the warming-driven loss of Arctic ice (see here and here).

Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences has been at the forefront of this research. She explains her findings in this video.



A key point is that the path of the jet stream “typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate east, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow. Each large meander, or wave, within the jet stream is known as a Rossby wave.”

This new PIK study offers a specific mechanism for why we’re seeing this quantum leap in extreme weather — some Rossby waves are stalling out for extended periods of time: “the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified.”

Why is this happening? Here things get a little technical, as befits a study titled, “Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer.” But read on — our emerging understanding of why extreme weather has begun running amok may be one of the most important and consequential scientific findings in recent years:

We show that high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves, associated with resonance circulation regimes, lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events. Since the onset of rapid Arctic amplification around 2000, a cluster of resonance circulation regimes is observed involving wave numbers 7 and 8. This has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves with these wave numbers.

Note that the study doesn’t merely find that stalling Rossby waves lead to an increase in extreme weather events. It also leads to extreme heat events and extreme rainfall events becoming synchronized (as, for instance, has happened just last week).

Here’s what that increase since 2000 looks like:

Resonance-638x472.jpg

The number of planetary wave resonance events is shown as grey bars for each 4-year interval. While there used to be one or two events in a 4-year period, 2004-2007 saw three such events and 2008-2011 even five events. For comparison the red curve shows the change in Arctic temperature relative to that in the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere. Since 2000, the Arctic has warmed much faster than other latitudes [aka Arctic amplification]. Graph: PIK

Arctic amplification is the accelerated warming that occurs in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe’s human-driven warming. A key reason it occurs is that as the more reflective snow and ice melt in the Arctic, darker land and ocean are exposed — and they absorb more solar energy. Other elements of Arctic amplification are discussed here.

Resonance regimes are associated with standing waves, which under the right condition can have a very large amplitude. Quasi-resonant means “almost resonant,” as scientist-blogger Greg Laden writes in his detailed explanation of the study, “and resonant means that instead of the meanders meandering around, they sit in one place (almost).”

What is the specific link between stalling Rossby waves and Arctic amplification? The study concludes, “We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.”

What’s a double jet stream formation? Wikipedia notes, “Jet streams can split into two due to the formation of an upper-level closed low, that diverts a portion of the jet stream under its base, while the remainder of the jet moves by to its north.” Last year, Popular Mechanics had a good discussion in its article, “How the Dual Jet Stream Sparks This Weird Summer Weather.”

Here is the jet stream from May/June 2012:
jetstream-2012-638x398.jpg

And here is the double jet stream from May/June 2013, a period of very unusual weather in Europe and the U.S. — “McGrath, Alaska, hit 94 degrees on June 17, four degrees warmer than Miami, which sits 4200 miles closer to the equator.” In the graphic, the two jet-streams are the (small) green band of wind surrounding the Arctic and the (larger) one over the United States.
jetstream-double-0613-638x398.jpg


We have much more to learn about “Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather,” as made clear in a recent Nature Geoscience paper (with that title) written by several of the leading researchers in the field, including Francis. But the evidence is mounting that we have entered a new regime of extreme weather thanks to our as-yet unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gas.
Click to expand...


hemZxLr.jpg


You think that maybe a huge demand for water (huge population, incredibly high water demands for agriculture), huge amounts of asphalt covering (soil can't absorb rain water as well), putting fish above people http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304547704579565622649474370 coupled with a run of the mill regular drought might lead to a catastrophic drought situation?


The new scientific method.
Communicate your conclusion
Do background research
Construct a hypothesis
Test your hypothesis by doing an experiment
Analyze only data that supports your conclusion
Ridicule those who disagree with your conclusion
Get government funding
/blatantly stolen by me from another interweb poster elsewhere on the net
 
EdReed4Prez said:
hemZxLr.jpg


You think that maybe a huge demand for water (huge population, incredibly high water demands for agriculture), huge amounts of asphalt covering (soil can't absorb rain water as well), putting fish above people http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304547704579565622649474370 coupled with a run of the mill regular drought might lead to a catastrophic drought situation?


The new scientific method.
Communicate your conclusion
Do background research
Construct a hypothesis
Test your hypothesis by doing an experiment
Analyze only data that supports your conclusion
Ridicule those who disagree with your conclusion
Get government funding
/blatantly stolen by me from another interweb poster elsewhere on the net
Click to expand...

I showed have known better..I thought you were actually posting a serious question and really interested in an answer.

Asphalt and endangered fish, yeah that explains the extreme drought.

I'll try one last time; you can internalize this answer knowing it's the truth and keep playing denier retard online for your buddies, or you actually must be challenged in some way. That's all I can say, oh and I'm glad they kept some of your class pictures. Good job, good job!

climate ~ noun
1. the weather in a given location averaged over some long period of time

weather ~ noun
1. the atmospheric conditions that comprise the state of the atmosphere in terms of temperature , wind ,clouds and precipitation

Now look at the right of the graph...and tell me what is changing; the weather or the climate.................?

Resonance-638x472.jpg
 
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So wasting large quantities of water during a drought hasn't added to the problem? A greater water demand hasn't added to the problem? And paving everything doesn't affect how soul absorbs water? If wasting water doesn't compound the problem why are they imposing fines for people who do?

It's ok. Your god AGW is the Alpha and the Omega, the beginning and the end.
 
EdReed4Prez said:
So wasting large quantities of water during a drought hasn't added to the problem? A greater water demand hasn't added to the problem? And paving everything doesn't affect how soul absorbs water? If wasting water doesn't compound the problem why are they imposing fines for people who do?

It's ok. Your god AGW is the Alpha and the Omega, the beginning and the end.
Click to expand...

I don't have a god I have the facts.

Here is your original question:

*raises hand* Why does weather in certain areas (really hot Australia, really hot southwest US) count as proof of global warming, yet colder areas elsewhere are disregarded as "weather"?

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

Nice attempt at deviation...err.. Good job! Good Job!( I forget to be sensitive to your state of mind,sorry)

Now your red herring question is; does population and water waste add to the problem? I'm going to ratchet it up a bit with my answer, but I have renewed faith in you as I see you are clever enough to run away when the correct answer doesn't suit your belief system. I know they didn't cover this at the Goodwill Job Training Center or wherever you were schooled, but I believe in you!

I'm going to give you the answer to your question in the form of an inverse water related question:

If a man pisses on a 2,000 acre forest fire is he helping to put it out?
 
PoloMalo43 said:
I showed have known better..I thought you were actually posting a serious question and really interested in an answer.

Asphalt and endangered fish, yeah that explains the extreme drought.

I'll try one last time; you can internalize this answer knowing it's the truth and keep playing denier retard online for your buddies, or you actually must be challenged in some way. That's all I can say, oh and I'm glad they kept some of your class pictures. Good job, good job!

climate ~ noun
1. the weather in a given location averaged over some long period of time

weather ~ noun
1. the atmospheric conditions that comprise the state of the atmosphere in terms of temperature , wind ,clouds and precipitation

Now look at the right of the graph...and tell me what is changing; the weather or the climate.................?

Resonance-638x472.jpg
Click to expand...

Yet last month the Bureau of Reclamation drained Folsom and other reservoirs on the American and Stanislaus rivers of more than 70,000 acre feet of water—enough to meet the annual needs of a city of half a million people—for the comfort and convenience of fish.

If that's pissing on a forest fire I guess the entire water conservation movement (low flow toilets and washers) is too?
 
PoloMalo43 said:
California is suffering through its worst drought on record, while the East Coast sees off-the-charts flooding. Both types of extremes are worsened by global warming as scientists have explained for decades.
Click to expand...

I love a theory that explains drought ... and flooding ... and heat ... and cold.

What a scam. Jesus, the guys who run a 3-card Monty sceme at least have to show the card you picked. The AGW guys claim that any card - too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry - is good enough.

"You selected the eight of diamonds? Pffffft, the 7 of spades is the same thing."

/s AGW proponent after yet another model fails.
 
There is nothing new happening in California, it's old news.

California has often endured water scarcity throughout its history, and each occasion has brought its own challenges. Out of those challenges have come valuable lessons, and as the current dry spell becomes more severe it is worth remembering— and learning from—the state’s long history of unpredictable weather fluctuations.

The Dust Bowl droughts of 1928-1935 stoked a desire for water-moving and storage on an even grander scale, and saw the design and construction of the federal Central Valley Project system of canals, pumps and aqueducts. Later, the multi-year droughts of 1947-1950 and 1959-1960 (as well as some extreme floods in the intervening years) helped to justify investment in the State Water Project, which irrigates the Central Valley and keeps taps flowing in Los Angeles.

Then came the 1976-1977 drought. At the end of the ‘wet’ season in 1976, rainfall levels were at 65 percent of the norm, reservoirs were depleted, and there was little to no Sierra snowpack to speak of (sound familiar?). Fears were confirmed as 1977 rolled in and marked one of the driest years on record. Forty-seven of California’s 58 counties declared a local drought emergency, making them eligible for relief money on both the state and federal level.

The current drought, which continues to smash records statewide, has inspired a litany of articles and musings on the drought of 1976-1977. To be sure, there are some striking similarities between the current predicament and the dire situation 37 years ago—including the fact that then, as now, Jerry Brown was the fellow declaring the emergency. Though more conservation is certainly possible, many urban areas now serve a larger population with the same or less water than they did two decades ago, according to the Pacific Institute.
http://civileats.com/2014/02/05/a-h...learning-from-the-past-looking-to-the-future/

According to real scientists, as compared to "global/climate" scientists, this may be a long dry spell for Californians.

"During the medieval period, there was over a century of drought in the Southwest and California. The past repeats itself," says Ingram, who is co-author of The West Without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climate Clues Tell Us About Tomorrow. Indeed, Ingram believes the 20th century may have been a wet anomaly."
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...ornia-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-climate/

My question is....If California does dry up and force people to move, what can I do to keep the San Franciscans out of my neighborhood ?
 
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SteelChip said:
My question is....If California does dry up and force people to move, what can I do to keep the San Franciscans out of my neighborhood ?
Click to expand...

It's only a problem if you're in a place where people want to live. If you're in a place where people don't want to live, like southwestern PA where there are plenty of lakes, rivers, rain, and less people every year, then water isn't a problem. But I still have to suffer with a government-mandated low-flush toilet because the people in AZ and CA don't have enough water.
 
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