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Initial thoughts on the Bills game

So here are my takes:

1. The single most important matchup in this game is our OLine vs the Bills pas rush.
The Bills pass rush is 4th in the league in sacks and 3rd in sack%... they get the same amount of pressure on the QB we do.

Our Oline has not been good vs a pass rush of any note. Its numbers the last few weeks have been totally shielded by defenses ( mostly with a decent amount of injuries) desperately trying to stop our suddenly great run game...
moreover Rudolph is getting credit for standing in there vs pressure, but as we saw last week he definitely might be trying a bit too hard to hold onto the ball and force passes... not all of those fumbles last week were his fault, but it might be a concern against a good team playing starters..

If the Bills get out ahead of us.. this could get messy.

2. The Bills Run game vs our Defense... the Bills passing game gets all the attention, but they have a top 10 rushing offense that drives that Offense.
Our D has a terrible habit of overcomitting to a pass rush vs pass first teams. If tgey start gashing us, the D is going to break down as it is wont to do

3. The two secondaries health..
The steelers decimated safety position looks like it is getting healthier by the moment. Its a nice issue to have since the ilbs are nuked and the CB is thinner than ever... seriously.. After JPjr, who I might add was banged up last week, we have the corpse of Patpete and Wallace, who has regressed... then Pierre.. who basically went from a guy who was a good backup cb to a ST only type who forgot how to cover... and super project Rush..who is a giant question mark. anyinjury to a CB could be catastrophic to us..

On the flip side, tge Bills LCB may not play. They have a backup SS not practicing, and both FS's are dealing with nagging injuries...

4. The Steelers red zone passing game.
Between the Bills O and tge weather.. this is not a game to rely on FG kickers..
since Matt Canada left, our overall O has improved, but we still suck at red zone passing... we score... but its all run.run and sometimes a 3rd down pass... but usually more runs..
in 3 games, Rudolph has yet to throw a td in the red zone, so the ineptitude is systemic. We cant just expect to bully our way in for TDs every single trip..

5. The conservative defensive approach we use in pressure situations.
This isnt a backup QB... its Josh Allen... this guy habitually throws at coverages... diggs runs pristine routes.. if we try to play safe zone we are going to get eaten alive
 
The point spread is Buffalo + 10. The ou is 36. The 10 point differential is allot of points for a small ou in a playoff game. If your taking Buffalo and the under, your saying the Steelers can't score more than 12 points or it's a push at the best.

I don't pay attention to many spreads vs over/under, this seems off. I'm sure some folks on this site could add some insight. A novice such as myself would take Buffalo giving up 10 and over as a parlay.
 
topseed said:
I realize that YPC is an important category. So you can say that the Bills are tied for the 5th worst in YPC allowed. You shouldn't say, however, that they have the 5th worst rushing defense in the league, because it's simply not a true statement.

YPC can also be misleading at times. For example, the Steelers averaged 6.6 yards per rush against the Browns earlier this year in a 13-10 loss. But it wasn't indicative of what really happened that day. Without a 74-yard run by Jaylen Warren, they averaged 3.9.
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Disagree with me all you want, but DK must be reading this forum because he made the same case this morning that I'm making. I really believe people are overlooking how porous this Bills defense is against the run. I guess we'll see in a few days.
 
Badcat said:
Disagree with me all you want, but DK must be reading this forum because he made the same case this morning that I'm making. I really believe people are overlooking how porous this Bills defense is against the run. I guess we'll see in a few days.
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DK was spot on this morning. I think our run game will overwhelm and win the battle. It will force Buff to load up and then, cold weather or not, Mason will kill shot the top.

DK’s numbers were rock solid in relation to the run and recent opponents VS running backs. OUR RB being better than any that the Bills faced recently.



We aren’t the same team from the 17 week season, we are a 3 game team with those tendencies. Buffalo’s last 3-6 games, play into our tendencies.


Salute the nation
 
Drink IRON City said:
DK was spot on this morning. I think our run game will overwhelm and win the battle. It will force Buff to load up and then, cold weather or not, Mason will kill shot the top.

DK’s numbers were rock solid in relation to the run and recent opponents VS running backs. OUR RB being better than any that the Bills faced recently.



We aren’t the same team from the 17 week season, we are a 3 game team with those tendencies. Buffalo’s last 3-6 games, play into our tendencies.


Salute the nation
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100% agree with you. But, and there is always a but with the Steelers, there is the MT factor that keeps me from putting money where my mouth is.
 
Badcat said:
100% agree with you. But, and there is always a but with the Steelers, there is the MT factor that keeps me from putting money where my mouth is.
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100% agree that you are a wise man.

Tomlinized



Salute the nation
 
If the Steelers can run the effectively, which they have lately….
If Allen has some INT’s and turnovers, which he tends to do….
Weather will keep both teams from passing a lot….
Speaking of weather, we may not be able to rely on Boz….

 
Teams love to double Diggs and probably should but the Bills use their 2 TE's very well and Gabe Davis has a habit of having huge games sprinkled throughout a season. He is actually probably due for one so we can't forget about covering him.
 
TDX27 said:
Teams love to double Diggs and probably should but the Bills use their 2 TE's very well and Gabe Davis has a habit of having huge games sprinkled throughout a season. He is actually probably due for one so we can't forget about covering him.
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The last time we played them, they put Diggs in motion alot, put him in the slot some to allow him an easy release at the LOS. I can't remember if it was the game before that vs us, they used their RB out of the backfield a ton in the passing game.
 
TDX27 said:
Teams love to double Diggs and probably should but the Bills use their 2 TE's very well and Gabe Davis has a habit of having huge games sprinkled throughout a season. He is actually probably due for one so we can't forget about covering him.
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Yep, will the Steelers cover the middle, or will Allen and his TE's be playing pitch and catch all day?
I can see the Bills selling out to stop the run, and with the weather conditions their best option will be putting the pressure of Rudolph to carry the load.
 
TDX27 said:
Teams love to double Diggs and probably should but the Bills use their 2 TE's very well and Gabe Davis has a habit of having huge games sprinkled throughout a season. He is actually probably due for one so we can't forget about covering him.
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Davis is dinged and is a maybe.

I winder who the next Chris Hogan is, lol.
 
Badcat said:
Disagree with me all you want, but DK must be reading this forum because he made the same case this morning that I'm making. I really believe people are overlooking how porous this Bills defense is against the run. I guess we'll see in a few days.
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Good point and although they have a very good DL they are without two very good LBers they’ve had in the past, Tremaine Edmunds is gone and Milano is out for the season. That’s big!
Our OL needs to dominate and allow Najee and Jaylan to control the game.
 
The only thing I like is we’re playing as underdogs and we usually win games we have no business winning. That said, Fire Tomlin!!
 
Trying to be positive here
1. If Allen were to choke under the bright lights it wouldn't be the first time.
2. Weather, If its 30mph winds and snowing/ raining it will take the edge away from the bills passing game. It will make it a knock down drag out whoever wins in the trenches and runs the ball and controls the clock.
3. RB rooms. Harris has been a different animal lately, Warren is warren, both guys are better than James cook. Especially in weather that could mitigate the speed of cook.
We need to have a shadow on Allen and not let him get chunk plays on the ground, guard the middle of the field to take away the TE's, and hope JPJ can cover Diggs.
The Bill are a very beatable team that is banged up. I see a game that resembles a Pittsburgh vs Baltimore low scoring battle.
 
Coryea said:
Well then did our offense really get better or is it because we played the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in Cincy and Seattle and then Baltimore's JV team?

All I'm saying is I hear national people saying we're dangerous, we got something going here, etc. What's more impressive?
Winning 3 straight vs Cincy, Seattle, Baltimore's JV squad, or winning 5 straight including wins over Tua, Dak, and Mahomes?
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Agreed

This is the best litmus test for the viability of this franchise as it sits now because the Bills have the first explosive offense we’ve faced in a while.

Games vs. Bills, Eagles of last few years (not this year), chiefs, 49ers, etc, have been blowouts the last few years, we will see what happens Sunday and if there has been any real improvement in this team
 
One thing that's going to be huge deal for both teams is special teams in this weather, the snap back to the punter/holder will be an adventure every time.
 
93.7 The Fan just reporting that the staff at Cleveland Stadium has been put on standby in case the Bills-Steelers game is moved.
 
Why on earth would the game be moved? Are they expecting a full-on blizzard with feet of snow? If so, I haven't heard anything close to that yet. If not, there is no reason. Play the game and let the team with the best OL and running game win.
 
TDX27 said:
Are they expecting a full-on blizzard with feet of snow?
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Yes. Safety of people driving to the game, also the possibility of the NY Thruway being closed, something I have personal experience with.
 
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