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Is Sam Howell In the Second Round More Valuable Than Kenny Pickett In the First?

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I am going to start a series of articles on players the Pittsburgh Steelers might be interested in in each round of the draft. I know it is hard to keep up on the hundreds of draft eligible players so here are some names that you should keep your ears open for when you are listening to draft coverage.

To start things off with the most glaring need for the first time in 18 years we will look at the Quarterback position.

Round One:
This is probably the worst draft in recent memory to go in needing a QB. There isn’t a consensus best as each and everyone has at least one red flag or unknown factor. But if I were to take a first round QB at 20 I would have to choose Kenny Pickett. Pickett is a cerebral quarterback who understands the nuances of the game. He diagnoses and reads defenses as good as anyone in the draft. He has enough arm to throw a 10 yard out route. He is above average in the accuracy department. His size and speed is good enough to avoid pressure or move the chains if need be.

But here’s the bad. One year wonder and the questions are why did it click this year or was it a product of an easy schedule and a veteran supporting cast. Hand size is a physical question he will have to answer. Maybe not the most important thing in the world but when Myles Garrett comes around the corner for a strip sack can he hand onto the football. Also, at age 24 he is one of the older prospects in the draft.

I would feel more comfortable drafting a safer and higher need position or trading back and seeing if we can get a quarterback later, because there’s no guarantee a quarterback picked at 20 is going to beat out a veteran free agent or Mason Rudolph who has experience in this offense.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Poormans-Joe Burrow
LOW END – Colt McCoy

Kenny Pickett Highlights

Round Two:
Round two is where I personally start getting more interested in quarterbacks. Sam Howell from North Carolina really impressed at the senior bowl, and watching his tape he has a good arm, above average accuracy, a real impressive deep ball, and is athletic enough to run some RPO’s if needed. His career at North Carolina is extremely impressive, but did regress a little every year which could be a red flag or perhaps his surrounding cast departing for the NFL. At age 21 , he’s already graduated as a true junior. This is a positive to me.

The negatives will be his height and his footwork. When he sets his feet and steps into his throws he is definitely accurate but he has a tendency to open his hips or not set his feet when he throws seem to sail a bit on him.

I would definitely start feeling more comfortable with a quarterback after maybe solidifying the LT, DT or CB position in round one. Filling a big hole like that would help the team in general more, and allow the Steelers to possibly stick with Rudolph for a season.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Poormans-Drew Brees
LOW END – Mitchell Trubisky
Sam Howell Highlights

Round Three:
Carson Strong
was a top of my board early on. Watching his tape he shows great accuracy and an NFL caliber arm and even with his knee injury seems to move well enough to extend some plays down the field. He also played against decent passing defenses and had good numbers. Cal ranked 38th – Strong 312 2/1, Fresno 54th – Strong – 476 4/1, UNLV ranked 63 – Strong 417 4/1, Air Force ranked 13th – Strong 351 4/1, Colorado St ranked 33rd – Strong 288 4/0. Watching the tape Strong regularly throw with velocity and accurately to spots where he anticipated where his receiver would be and regularly diagnosed single coverage and/or manipulated safeties to create space for his receivers.

During the senior bowl I saw late passes, high looping passes, and little anticipation. My concern is his stats were largely in part to his in depth understanding of the offense he was involved with for 4 seasons, and the supporting cast of future NFL talents. I feel he would not come in and be able to challenge year one for the starting spot. His Wonderlic score would definitely be something I am interested in when that information comes out.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Matthew Stafford
LOW END – Chad Henne

Round Four:
Malik Willis
might have improved his draft stock at the senior bowl practices but he showed me the same old during the game. So that is why I have him ranked a 4th round prospect. Talent wise he has all the athleticism and arm strength one could imagine. But he isn’t as tall as one would prefer and definitely not a Cam Newton physically or a Lamar Jackson with his legs. Some film looks good and you can see the talent with his arm and legs and that is why he’s an NFL talent.

The negative side is there’s just as much film of his underachieving, and even struggling with reading defenses and running his own offense. He needs to see it to throw it and that works against some college teams but no NFL team lets you consistently throw when the receiver is open. He’s a guy that you sit on the bench 2 years before you evaluate what you have.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Steve McNair
LOW END – Kordell Stewart

Round Five:
Bailey Zappe is an intriguing prospect as in the fact he has moved up the college rankings, and transfered to Division I, Western Kentucky, where he put up Madden like numbers. 5,967 yards at 69.3% completion percentage with 62 tds to 11 ints. You might think it’s the system or schedule but considering Zappe’s numbers are triple last years combined quarterbacks and over double the year before I would not be so sure about system. And against Indiana and Michigan St. Zappe had 853 yards and 6 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. He has the accuracy and he sees things open early, knows how to read a defense and has command of an offense.

His size and arm strength is always going to be his major drawback. Just over 6’ and a way below average arm he has to live on slants and seam routes. He can throw a comeback or back shoulder, but I would not trust him to throw a ten yard out unless you want to risk a pick six.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Chad Pennington
LOW END – Ty Detmer

Round Six:
Cole Kelley
is more of your traditional drop back and chuck is QB, but is more nimble for his size than one would believe. When I say size I means SIZE. Dude is listed at 6-7 260lbs and I don’t doubt any of that. He has a strong arm, good accuracy, and his mechanics look to have improved every year. Hard to bring down and is superman strong.

His level of competition is a major factor. He hasn’t played against teams that have much NFL talent. He threw a lot of ill advised passes and seems to trust his arm a little too much. Doesn’t seem to read defenses as well as he should considering level of competition. Definitely a project with at least two years needed under his belt before throwing him into an NFL game. Might be best to stash him on a practice squad for a year before moving him up to the 53 man.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Ben Roethisberger
LOW END – JaMarcus Russell

Round 7:
Dustin Crum
to me is a safe backup at the very least. He would fit nicely in a RPO offense and he is just a gamer. He is decently accurate and at least an average NFL arm. But he is very smart with the football rarely throwing into coverage, moves the chains with his feet if need be but does a good job of looking downfield to spot a bigger play until he crosses the LOS.

His throwing motion is not good, and his mechanics are poor to say the least. Not an A+ athlete by any means.

COMPARISON:
HIGH END – Taylor Heinicke
LOW END – Trace McSorley

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Sam Howell as a second round bust has less value than a first round qb that probably won’t be a franchise guy? I don’t get it…or anyone who likes Howell as anything… he is 1/4” taller than 6 foot…. Right in premo bust range… he is just going to be a baker mayfield disappointment to whoever takes him… he will look good enough to always give him a chance but won’t be good enough to win anything…

I mean i guess if Pickett busts too a first round bust is worse than a second round bust…..so there is that
 
Don't waste a pick on a QB this year unless you truly feel he is a first-rounder (not just this year but any year). Do not reach. We can go a year or two and wait for a QB in the draft while building the rest of the team. They thought Rudolph was a 1st rounder and grabbed him in the 3rd round so they obviously aren't very good at evaluating QB's.
 
Good breakdown and particularly interesting when considering the value for each player compared to where they'll actually get drafted.

Pickett is the most pro ready, but has the upside of a guy like Derek Carr. From what I watched at Pitt, he isn't a player who will elevate an entire franchise, but can lead a good roster to the playoffs. Willis is intriguing given his athletic abilities, I just can't ignore his mediocre performances against P5 competition. You also don't see too many short QBs winning titles. Ridder feels like the prospects between these two guys.
 
Don't waste a pick on a QB this year unless you truly feel he is a first-rounder (not just this year but any year). Do not reach. We can go a year or two and wait for a QB in the draft while building the rest of the team. They thought Rudolph was a 1st rounder and grabbed him in the 3rd round so they obviously aren't very good at evaluating QB's.
I will forever say this was lip service to hype him up. They took a 2nd/3rd-round rated safety and a WR without elite deep speed over Rudolph.
 
round 3 Ridder I think many have Willis listed as a rnd 2
 
You just never know with the draft, regardless of position. The 2000 draft was also considered a poor year for QBs. Many Steelers fans were pining for Pennington, who went to the Jets at 18 in the first round.

We took Tee Martin in the 5th round. Someone named Brady went in the 6th.
 
You just never know with the draft, regardless of position. The 2000 draft was also considered a poor year for QBs. Many Steelers fans were pining for Pennington, who went to the Jets at 18 in the first round.

We took Tee Martin in the 5th round. Someone named Brady went in the 6th.
There is a very interesting late round prospect or two but tgey are pure pocket guys and not lamar Jackson clones so we won’t want them
 
Sam Howell as a second round bust has less value than a first round qb that probably won’t be a franchise guy? I don’t get it…or anyone who likes Howell as anything… he is 1/4” taller than 6 foot…. Right in premo bust range… he is just going to be a baker mayfield disappointment to whoever takes him… he will look good enough to always give him a chance but won’t be good enough to win anything…

I mean i guess if Pickett busts too a first round bust is worse than a second round bust…..so there is that

Howell when he had players around him was excellent. Height isn't deal beakers for mobile QB's as proven by Brees and lately Murray. The question is can we get him in round two? He has a better arm and is more solidly built than Mayfield. I'll compare his stats 2 years ago to ANY qb who is projected to be drafted this year, Worth our pick in round two.
 
Howell when he had players around him was excellent. Height isn't deal beakers for mobile QB's as proven by Brees and lately Murray. The question is can we get him in round two? He has a better arm and is more solidly built than Mayfield. I'll compare his stats 2 years ago to ANY qb who is projected to be drafted this year, Worth our pick in round two.
He is going to be mayfield 2.0…. Brees murray and wilson are on an extremely short list of small qbs that were successful. The vast majority under or around 6’ struggle to make reads. Nothing I saw from Howell this year makes me think he is anything but a waste of a pick…

We should go oline in the first, then BPA between ILB, WR, and DL with the next three picks… draft a qb next year… don’t waste it on this meh crop
 
He is going to be mayfield 2.0…. Brees murray and wilson are on an extremely short list of small qbs that were successful. The vast majority under or around 6’ struggle to make reads. Nothing I saw from Howell this year makes me think he is anything but a waste of a pick…

We should go oline in the first, then BPA between ILB, WR, and DL with the next three picks… draft a qb next year… don’t waste it on this meh crop
With three guys already on the OL, I think they need to fix this area in free agency and go DL or take one of the very talented CBs. I'd even consider WR in the first.

I continue to ask and have yet to get an answer, who are these exciting QBs next year beyond Young and Stroud? The Steelers aren't getting either of those guys, so who are we getting? The rest of the crop seems very lackluster.
 
Howell when he had players around him was excellent. Height isn't deal beakers for mobile QB's as proven by Brees and lately Murray. The question is can we get him in round two? He has a better arm and is more solidly built than Mayfield. I'll compare his stats 2 years ago to ANY qb who is projected to be drafted this year, Worth our pick in round two.
Here you go now we know that the Steelers shouldn't draft Howell. He might as well be Thurston the third now..
when cooch puts his kiss of death on a draft pick it's lights out.

So Brees and Murray won what one SB? Yeah let us get shorty.

I will stick with the pure passers that can scramble within the pocket. That scramble to pass not run.
 
Willis will go in the first, time will tell if he can realize the potential he has. In a fairly weak QB class it sucks to be in the market for one

My fear is that with Willis and Pickett off the board the Steelers race up at pick 20 and select Howell…ugh, I hope this premonition doesn’t come true
 
Tomlin loves midgets
Willis will go in the first, time will tell if he can realize the potential he has. In a fairly weak QB class it sucks to be in the market for one

My fear is that with Willis and Pickett off the board the Steelers race up at pick 20 and select Howell…ugh, I hope this premonition doesn’t come true
Tomlin loves midgets and poor outliers
 
I keep hearing everyone say that Pickett gets down graded because he is 24 and only put it all together this year. Who cares, he progressed every year and topped out after a full college career, what more do you want? I look at his extra time as though he did a year in the minors, where he learned and got better. What does it matter if he starts @ 24 or a draft choice @ 22 and then a year or two learning on the bench?
 
I keep hearing everyone say that Pickett gets down graded because he is 24 and only put it all together this year. Who cares, he progressed every year and topped out after a full college career, what more do you want? I look at his extra time as though he did a year in the minors, where he learned and got better. What does it matter if he starts @ 24 or a draft choice @ 22 and then a year or two learning on the bench?
But see he didn't progress every year, in 2020 his yardage and completion percentage (slightly) decreased. Three years in a row he had 12/13/13 TDs on the season. His interception percentage during that span in comparison wasn't attractively low. That isn't progressing every year.

He progressed in his last year.

So what does that mean?

That could mean he developed and he is on track to be a stud QB in the NFL. It could also mean he had a one good year that he topped out at. Aka an one year wonder.

To his credit he went to the senior bowl and layed some of the concerns to bed with a solid performance. Never the less that was a concern.

With the high QB need and that last season overall body of work it will more than likely springboard him into top ten round 1.
 
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