Kenny Pickett through the first 4 games

[Drink IRON City]

Prime example of statistics not telling a whole story.

That’s the part that is hard for some posters to grasp. The ”stat” quantifiers, don’t seem to add in commen sense or just don’t have that sense to understand that. It’s like they want the nfl world all categorized up, no room for the human side of players playing.

maybe they need to watch “the longest yard”, the original with Burt, some may need to watch it a 1000 times to get what the meaning is.


Salute the nation

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Page 7 for those that are counting.

 

[madinsomniac]

Page 7 for those that are counting.

Wake me when its at 300….

 

[FordFairLane]

That’s the part that is hard for some posters to grasp. The ”stat” quantifiers, don’t seem to add in commen sense or just don’t have that sense to understand that. It’s like they want the nfl world all categorized up, no room for the human side of players playing.

maybe they need to watch “the longest yard”, the original with Burt, some may need to watch it a 1000 times to get what the meaning is.


Salute the nation

No one is arguing that Canada's system doesn't suck. No one is arguing that Ben didn't take command of the offense and will his team to victory 9 times with 3/4 of the arm he once had. Hell, should have been 10 if Freiermuth doesn't drop that TD vs the Vikings. But what I am saying is Ben executed the offense better than Pickett. I don't think anyone, not even Canada, expects him to be back next year. I would say he is coaching high school football this time next year. Maybe he is a position college coach. But never again is he an OC in college or the NFL. What I am saying is the way Canada's offense works is he almost lulls the defense to sleep with his bland offense. And then when he puts a wrinkle in it you have to execute. That is not a high percentage offense to hinge your success on 4-5 plays. But if you hit 2-3 of them we are in the game and your stats looks a helluva lot better. Roethlisberger didn't hit them all. But he hit 1-2 of them. It is a stupid offense. It is honestly the offense Tomlin wants. He wants close games, run the clock, rely on your defense. That is not a game plan for success in 2023. Maybe in the early 2000's you could do that but not today.

Here are my expectations year 2 for Kenny.

https://www.steelernation.com/forums/threads/kenny-pickett-year-2-expectations.50843/post-1057459

My Hope:
4,000 yards 25 td 8 int

Realistic:
3,200 yards 18 tds 10 int

Minimum:
3,000 yards 12 tds 10 int

He is on pace for somewhere between minimum and realistic. So I want to make this clear. I am not giving up on him. But I need him to tighten up the mistakes and hit maybe one more big play opportunity a game. So lets see how the next few games go so I can compare the first 4 to the next 4.

 

[TDX27]

I haven't heard anyone call him a bust. But it has been a year worth of play and people are getting a little critical of stupid mistakes. I have seen an improvement over the beginning of last year. So that is a good thing. It is just some other guys have started off a bit better. Hopefully, he catches up and exceeds them. Because if your first round QB is a bust you are behind 5 years and guys like Watt and Heyward won't ever get a super bowl and I really hope they do because they deserve it.

People saying he isn't the guy or won't be the guy or can't be the guy are basically calling him a bust. There are some on here saying that, some fans outside here, and some pundits (i.e Cowturd for one) saying it. I'm not expecting him to be a HOFer but if he's a winner, that is what I want. If he ends up being that, fantastic. If not, in a couple years, we'll be looking again just like between Bradshaw and Ben.

 

[FordFairLane]

People saying he isn't the guy or won't be the guy or can't be the guy are basically calling him a bust. There are some on here saying that, some fans outside here, and some pundits (i.e Cowturd for one) saying it. I'm not expecting him to be a HOFer but if he's a winner, that is what I want. If he ends up being that, fantastic. If not, in a couple years, we'll be looking again just like between Bradshaw and Ben.

Well, their level of expectations are probably HOFer. Same thing is going on with the Packers after they had back to back first ballot HOFers at QB. It is funny the parallels to us in 2019 to them. Like expectations are a bit unrealistic. Love has 6 starts in his career and has played average. More tds than ints 15th in yards. Like he is not Aaron Rodgers but maybe give him a couple of years. Nah, they have seen enough and eventually the GM and Coach will hear enough from the fanbase to bench him. I don't want to do that to Pickett. I want him to get enough time so the coaches, GM, and Fans can make an informed decision. Knee jerk reactions never do anyone any good.

 

[madinsomniac]

Well, their level of expectations are probably HOFer. Same thing is going on with the Packers after they had back to back first ballot HOFers at QB. It is funny the parallels to us in 2019 to them. Like expectations are a bit unrealistic. Love has 6 starts in his career and has played average. More tds than ints 15th in yards. Like he is not Aaron Rodgers but maybe give him a couple of years. Nah, they have seen enough and eventually the GM and Coach will hear enough from the fanbase to bench him. I don't want to do that to Pickett. I want him to get enough time so the coaches, GM, and Fans can make an informed decision. Knee jerk reactions never do anyone any good.

Nope but Love is in his 4th season… so the parallels aren’t exactly the same… they have to make a decision after this season about him

 

[FordFairLane]

Nope but Love is in his 4th season… so the parallels aren’t exactly the same… they have to make a decision after this season about him

They signed him through the 2024 season so they have this year and next. 3 years riding the bench doesn't mean . I mean you get to know the offense a little better but you need that game experience. Practice is good and all but it doesn't really equate to the real thing. If the fans win and the Pack releases him after the season I would JUMP at the opportunity to sign him. Give us a good depth piece with some decent upside.

 

[madinsomniac]

They signed him through the 2024 season so they have this year and next. 3 years riding the bench doesn't mean . I mean you get to know the offense a little better but you need that game experience. Practice is good and all but it doesn't really equate to the real thing. If the fans win and the Pack releases him after the season I would JUMP at the opportunity to sign him. Give us a good depth piece with some decent upside.

They signed him to a fifth year un-guaranteed contract so they could easily cut or trade him if he wasn’t looking like the guy… they also have to decide whether he is worth extending and at what price after this… thats why they didn’t just enact his 5th year fully guaranteed but several million dollar cheaper option … the plan was of he didn’t show real promise, they weren’t tied to him at a high cost next season…

 

[FordFairLane]

They signed him to a fifth year un-guaranteed contract so they could easily cut or trade him if he wasn’t looking like the guy… they also have to decide whether he is worth extending and at what price after this… thats why they didn’t just enact his 5th year fully guaranteed but several million dollar cheaper option … the plan was of he didn’t show real promise, they weren’t tied to him at a high cost next season…

So what is your opinion on him? Cut him, play him, bench him?

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

Wake me when its at 300….

The longer the thread- the worse the outcome for the player.

So Slash, you may want to slow your roll lol.

 

[madinsomniac]

So what is your opinion on him? Cut him, play him, bench him?

Right now you play him and make the decision based off of the back end of the season… he is a 4th year guy, but 2020 was effective a non season for him and he only has 6 starts…

If he shows signs of being a good qb, you play him next year at 22 million dollars and then franchise hime the year after if he needs it. If he continues to spiral for a few more games, then you bench him for a couple games then let him start over down the last few to see if he can show anything at all.. if not, see if there is any trade interest and then if not, you cut him and move on… he definitely will get a chance to prove himself elsewhere… the combo of Rodgers in front of him and covid wiping out what should have been his developmental years really makes him a wildcard…

 

[FordFairLane]

Right now you play him and make the decision based off of the back end of the season… he is a 4th year guy, but 2020 was effective a non season for him and he only has 6 starts…

If he shows signs of being a good qb, you play him next year at 22 million dollars and then franchise hime the year after if he needs it. If he continues to spiral for a few more games, then you bench him for a couple games then let him start over down the last few to see if he can show anything at all.. if not, see if there is any trade interest and then if not, you cut him and move on… he definitely will get a chance to prove himself elsewhere… the combo of Rodgers in front of him and covid wiping out what should have been his developmental years really makes him a wildcard…

From my understanding his contract has already given him most of his guarantees already including his 2024 salary. He can make like 9 million more in incentives which would bring the contract to like 23 million if he hits them all in 2023 and 2024. But as of right now I don't think they gain anything by just cutting him. I live in Wisconsin and by default hear a lot about the Packers so that is how it was explained to me.

 

[madinsomniac]

From my understanding his contract has already given him most of his guarantees already including his 2024 salary. He can make like 9 million more in incentives which would bring the contract to like 23 million if he hits them all in 2023 and 2024. But as of right now I don't think they gain anything by just cutting him. I live in Wisconsin and by default hear a lot about the Packers so that is how it was explained to me.

You are correct.. tgey can get out of that almost 10 million if he sucks so they definitely should keep him next year no matter what

 

[bermudasteel]

Kenny sucks so far. So does Matt Canada.

Hopefully, they fix their suckiness...

 

[bermudasteel]

Read below.


A 32 year old Ben Roethlisberger throws for 4,500 yards and 30+ tds in his offense. A 38 year old Roethlisberger throws for 3,800 and 25 tds. Now remember there's 17 games not just 16 anymore.

And I think you bring Patrick Mahomes in here and run this offense he's in that 4500+ 30+ tds.

If you again watch the film Kenny left three or four touchdowns on the field. If he converts two of them no one is talking about Matt Canada. Instead people are literally making up some asinine rumor that Kenny called that touchdown play.

I rewatched the game two times. Kenny didn't call that play. He used the same verbiage in the 3rd quarter, "it might be 6" as on the TD pass.

It was a great throw regardless...

 

[madinsomniac]

I rewatched the game two times. Kenny didn't call that play. He used the same verbiage in the 3rd quarter, "it might be 6" as on the TD pass.

It was a great throw regardless...

Its already been confirmed that he absolutely audibled the route… however you are right too .. he did call an audible earlier that game and in a couple other games… it’s been confirmed that he has extremely limited audible ability if the coaches see something vs an opponent in a specific circumstance and explicitly give him the green light if it comes up…

Now here is the grand question … in all of these other audibles people have isolated, its always a comeback route to the outside.. that td seems to be the only “go” route… so maybe that was the big thing that the coaches were being coy about… that Pickett/ens changed the audible to a go instead of a comeback..
the story keeps changing, so someone is hiding something…

 

[Drink IRON City]

Its already been confirmed that he absolutely audibled the route… however you are right too .. he did call an audible earlier that game and in a couple other games… it’s been confirmed that he has extremely limited audible ability if the coaches see something vs an opponent in a specific circumstance and explicitly give him the green light if it comes up…

Now here is the grand question … in all of these other audibles people have isolated, its always a comeback route to the outside.. that td seems to be the only “go” route… so maybe that was the big thing that the coaches were being coy about… that Pickett/ens changed the audible to a go instead of a comeback..
the story keeps changing, so someone is hiding something…

O’Canada is erogant enough to be mad instead of happy for the outcome, due to his not final approval of the play.


Salute the nation

 

[Stewey]

The longer the thread- the worse the outcome for the player.

So Slash, you may want to slow your roll lol.

Yeah, he might get hurt laughing so hard.


Maybe from this...

to this...

 

[bigben]

Prime example of statistics not telling a whole story.

OK so final year Ben is no better than Kenny Pickett?? SMH
You serious?

 

[slashsteel]

OK so final year Ben is no better than Kenny Pickett?? SMH
You serious?

Re-read what the poster wrote it was referencing Ben's tendencies late in games not saying Kenny was better at any point than Bigben. The response was a general statement how stats do not always paint an accurate picture how you can manipulate them to pair with an opinion.

Am I serious? Yes you seriously need to reread and not make up **** in the process

Despite it raining I am in a jovial mood so I won't throw out a SMH for you interpreting it incorrectly.

I will probably never compare BigBen to Kenny as Ben was one of the best to ever lace them up. A sure fire first ballot HOFer. Kenny is struggling who knows what his ceiling is. But for now it isn't showing high.

 

[FordFairLane]

OK so final year Ben is no better than Kenny Pickett?? SMH
You serious?

What I learned is certain people can use stats to validate their claims but if you try the same thing for Kenny then statistics don’t matter.

 

[slashsteel]

Seeing how this subject is ongoing and certain people love them some stats




Again it is never that stats don't entirely matter it is they can paint an inaccurate picture. Most everyone seems to realize that except for a special few. Ones that often claim their football knowledge superiority.


So if you have stat A

And stat B shows contributory.

It would be a multifactorial problem not just a singular player problem.

So if a QB is faced with covered WRs debunking others perception, an O-line that doesn't give a lot of time that has been shown as well, a ****** scheme. Coaching staff that arguably hasn't coached up many ares of the team.

You get a QB that isn't excused from his deficiencies but damn sure isn't the primary problem.

 

[bigben]

Re-read what the poster wrote it was referencing Ben's tendencies late in games not saying Kenny was better at any point than Bigben. The response was a general statement how stats do not always paint an accurate picture how you can manipulate them to pair with an opinion.

Am I serious? Yes you seriously need to reread and not make up **** in the process

Despite it raining I am in a jovial mood so I won't throw out a SMH for you interpreting it incorrectly.

I will probably never compare BigBen to Kenny as Ben was one of the best to ever lace them up. A sure fire first ballot HOFer. Kenny is struggling who knows what his ceiling is. But for now it isn't showing high.

I thought you were inferring that Ben despite the stats was no better than kenny.
Players with good stats over a career are good players, players with poor stats over a career are not. Regardless of anyones opinion. While there can be contributing factors as to why a player is good or bad, it doesn't change the stats or the facts. Opinions contrary to stats are not based on reality and purely hypothetical BS.

 

[FordFairLane]

Seeing how this subject is ongoing and certain people love them some stats




Again it is never that stats don't entirely matter it is they can paint an inaccurate picture. Most everyone seems to realize that except for a special few. Ones that often claim their football knowledge superiority.


So if you have stat A

And stat B shows contributory.

It would be a multifactorial problem not just a singular player problem.

So if a QB is faced with covered WRs debunking others perception, an O-line that doesn't give a lot of time that has been shown as well, a ****** scheme. Coaching staff that arguably hasn't coached up many ares of the team.

You get a QB that isn't excused from his deficiencies but damn sure isn't the primary problem.

If you read anything I have wrote about Canada the last Two years you’d know I hate his offense as it is bland and predictable. It’s predictable besides a few wrinkles where the predictability has actually lulled the defense into jumping a route leaving a double move wide open. Not a high percentage way of running an offense. That said there’s guys open and Kenny is missing those opportunities. As shown by your graph where does Washington fit on that graph? Where is Sam Howell compared to Kenny statistically? Howell is making the most of his opportunities. Kenny is not.

I don’t see any possibility where Matt Canada is going to be here in 2024. But I don’t see him leaving anytime soon either. So what we need from Kenny is to hit a couple more of those big plays he’s been leaving on the field. Because even though what Canada runs is basic every other team runs similar plays. So doing better with what he is running is only going to help him grow.