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Kenny Pickett through the first 4 games

bigben said:
I thought you were inferring that Ben despite the stats was no better than kenny.
Players with good stats over a career are good players, players with poor stats over a career are not. Regardless of anyone's opinion. While there can be contributing factors as to why a player is good or bad, it doesn't change the stats or the facts. Opinions contrary to stats are not based on reality and purely hypothetical BS.
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Nope wasn't inferring that at all.

We don't have to change the stats we just need to see the entire picture and not leave contributing factors out. Again stats might paint a partial picture or might just be misleading. They also aren't always leading to conclusion. As statistics change,players change, teams and schemes change. Ultimately we can have tunnel vision if we are zooming in statistically and not looking at all aspects of whatever you are examining.

I have made a solid case why there is contributing factors to why Kenny is struggling. You can acknowledge them or ignore them. Your option.


What sucks one day doesn't have to continue sucking. It might and it might not. If you have a lot of contributing factors
 
FordFairLane said:
If you read anything I have wrote about Canada the last Two years you’d know I hate his offense as it is bland and predictable. It’s predictable besides a few wrinkles where the predictability has actually lulled the defense into jumping a route leaving a double move wide open. Not a high percentage way of running an offense. That said there’s guys open and Kenny is missing those opportunities. As shown by your graph where does Washington fit on that graph? Where is Sam Howell compared to Kenny statistically? Howell is making the most of his opportunities. Kenny is not.

I don’t see any possibility where Matt Canada is going to be here in 2024. But I don’t see him leaving anytime soon either. So what we need from Kenny is to hit a couple more of those big plays he’s been leaving on the field. Because even though what Canada runs is basic every other team runs similar plays. So doing better with what he is running is only going to help him grow.
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That stat showed your perception of WRs running open in comparison to other teams wasn't accurate. It lists the QBs compared. I don't need to sidestep it and go in another direction. As it lends credibility to my take on there being a lot of contributing factors as before you shot down the WRs as one of them.

You statistically want to compare Kenny to other QBs if you are going to do that you can't leave out the crappy scheme, the WRs route concepts blowing chunks, a lack of a supportive running game, an O-line that has shown issues. A coach that hasn't coached up his college deficiencies. (as it is pointed out how he does the same happy feet and drifting into pressure).

If you sit and examine the entire picture it won't dissolve Kenny of his issues but it damn sure shows he has a lot more negatives on his plate than a green QB should have to encounter.

In conclusion this team is doing Kenny no favors. He can bust sure, but no way can we not say this team isn't impeding progress.
 
slashsteel said:
That stat showed your perception of WRs running open in comparison to other teams wasn't accurate. It lists the QBs compared. I don't need to sidestep it and go in another direction. As it lends credibility to my take on there being a lot of contributing factors as before you shot down the WRs as one of them.

You statistically want to compare Kenny to other QBs if you are going to do that you can't leave out the crappy scheme, the WRs route concepts blowing chunks, a lack of a supportive running game, an O-line that has shown issues. A coach that hasn't coached up his college deficiencies. (as it is pointed out how he does the same happy feet and drifting into pressure).

If you sit and examine the entire picture it won't dissolve Kenny of his issues but it damn sure shows he has a lot more negatives on his plate than a green QB should have to encounter.

In conclusion this team is doing Kenny no favors. He can bust sure, but no way can we not say this team isn't impeding progress.
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This is why I was hoping that they would have addressed the Oline before ben retired and not just by a couple mid round picks… I really had hoped tgey would have had an offense ready when they started trying to replace Ben…

I totally blame the head coach… this is not how you develop a qb or win championships
 
madinsomniac said:
This is why I was hoping that they would have addressed the Oline before ben retired and not just by a couple mid round picks… I really had hoped tgey would have had an offense ready when they started trying to replace Ben…

I totally blame the head coach… this is not how you develop a qb or win championships
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Exactly. But it is even more than Tomlin. Rooney signed off on the approach. He won't put his hand in the pile for better assistant coaches, he employs a decent amount less of staff in comparison to other teams. There is no way Canada should have been brought back in the off-season. That right there set the whole team up for mediocrity.
 
slashsteel said:
Exactly. But it is even more than Tomlin. Rooney signed off on the approach. He won't put his hand in the pile for better assistant coaches, he employs a decent amount less of staff in comparison to other teams. There is no way Canada should have been brought back in the off-season. That right there set the whole team up for mediocrity.
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Meh i sort of dispute the “employs less staff” to a significant degree… yes they have fewer coaching staff personnel, and they absolutely should have some of tge auxiliary coordinators that some other teams employ, like run game,
But most of that perception is based off of how the Steelers categorize some of the staff…

For instance, many teams list their chief medical staff and trainers with the coaching staff, and while the Steelers do list their trainers, they don’t include the top medical staff… moreover some stars request personal trainers, so teams employ more than the 3 the Steelers do, which inflates the numbers…

Also most teams include 2-3 analytics guys as part of the staff, while tge Steelers list theirs as front office/ scouting department guys… as far as position coaches go, it’s mostly average numbers…

They also slack in special teams coaches, but honestly id’d rather have an assistant OC or DC than an assistant STC..

So they probably could add one or two more, but it isn’t as bad as people act like it is because of semantics…

Though I might be curious if they use their anaysts only in personal scouting or if they incorporate them in game planning too… if they didn’t that would explain why they only list them as front office staff…
 
madinsomniac said:
This is why I was hoping that they would have addressed the Oline before ben retired and not just by a couple mid round picks… I really had hoped tgey would have had an offense ready when they started trying to replace Ben…

I totally blame the head coach… this is not how you develop a qb or win championships
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Gotta blame Colbert and Rooney along with the HC. They always say it's a joint effort. Believe them.
 
slashsteel said:
That stat showed your perception of WRs running open in comparison to other teams wasn't accurate. It lists the QBs compared. I don't need to sidestep it and go in another direction. As it lends credibility to my take on there being a lot of contributing factors as before you shot down the WRs as one of them.

You statistically want to compare Kenny to other QBs if you are going to do that you can't leave out the crappy scheme, the WRs route concepts blowing chunks, a lack of a supportive running game, an O-line that has shown issues. A coach that hasn't coached up his college deficiencies. (as it is pointed out how he does the same happy feet and drifting into pressure).

If you sit and examine the entire picture it won't dissolve Kenny of his issues but it damn sure shows he has a lot more negatives on his plate than a green QB should have to encounter.

In conclusion this team is doing Kenny no favors. He can bust sure, but no way can we not say this team isn't impeding progress.
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Again. Why is Howell statistically superior with almost the exact same deficiencies.

And I’ll be honest this obscure stat is exactly what Samuel Clemons was talking about. So if we really want to go down that rabbit hole lets go.


Bad throw percentage. Excludes throwaways and spikes
KP- 22.7%
Howell- 11.1%
Purdy- 12.2%
Ridder- 13.7%
Drop percentage
KP- 3.2%
Howell- 3.9%
Purdy- 3.1%
Ridder- 5.9%
Pressure %
KP- 29.4%
Howell- 25.1%
Purdy- 22.6%
Ridder- 24.4%
From what I see is Pickett is doubling the poor decision making but having between 4-7% more pressure. Drops are relatively low for him and Purdy while Ridder is about double in that category and Howell is slightly higher than the other two.

Now again look at Howell. Has about the same system deficiencies as Pickett with your chart. Has about 4% less pressures. Slightly more drops. But makes about half as many bad decisions. IMO that’s why Howell has better passing numbers. And that’s what I have been saying. Kenny needs to make better decisions.
 
FordFairLane said:
Again. Why is Howell statistically superior with almost the exact same deficiencies.

And I’ll be honest this obscure stat is exactly what Samuel Clemons was talking about. So if we really want to go down that rabbit hole lets go.


Bad throw percentage. Excludes throwaways and spikes
KP- 22.7%
Howell- 11.1%
Purdy- 12.2%
Ridder- 13.7%
Drop percentage
KP- 3.2%
Howell- 3.9%
Purdy- 3.1%
Ridder- 5.9%
Pressure %
KP- 29.4%
Howell- 25.1%
Purdy- 22.6%
Ridder- 24.4%
From what I see is Pickett is doubling the poor decision making but having between 4-7% more pressure. Drops are relatively low for him and Purdy while Ridder is about double in that category and Howell is slightly higher than the other two.

Now again look at Howell. Has about the same system deficiencies as Pickett with your chart. Has about 4% less pressures. Slightly more drops. But makes about half as many bad decisions. IMO that’s why Howell has better passing numbers. And that’s what I have been saying. Kenny needs to make better decisions.
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so the Howell comparison is supposed to discount what exactly?

Put Howell in this offense with everything that has been talked about and see how it works out for him.

The two simply don't have the exact circumstances. Really a basic concept.

I stick by what I said you can keep just using the stats you want and dismissing the rest. Let's not pretend you haven't been shown other stats that favor Kenny.

More pressure percentage for Kenny + worse WR routes. Sounds like an understandable production drop off.

Hey but you do you!
 
slashsteel said:
so the Howell comparison is supposed to discount what exactly?

Put Howell in this offense with everything that has been talked about and see how it works out for him.

The two simply don't have the exact circumstances. Really a basic concept.

I stick by what I said you can keep just using the stats you want and dismissing the rest. Let's not pretend you haven't been shown other stats that favor Kenny.

Hey but you do you!
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Where is Washington in comparison to Pittsburgh? You used this to compare Purdy to Pickett. I am using it to compare Howell to Pickett…

Are you saying I can’t compare statistics because the circumstances aren’t exactly the same with Howell and Pickett but you can use the exact same graph to compare Pickett to Purdy?

I am not. I am using the chart you used to compare Pickett and Purdy. I am just comparing Pickett to Howell.
 
Also Kenny is 10-8 and Howell is 3 -3 . Which is slightly better. Wins matter too.
 
FordFairLane said:
Again. Why is Howell statistically superior with almost the exact same deficiencies.

And I’ll be honest this obscure stat is exactly what Samuel Clemons was talking about. So if we really want to go down that rabbit hole lets go.


Bad throw percentage. Excludes throwaways and spikes
KP- 22.7%
Howell- 11.1%
Purdy- 12.2%
Ridder- 13.7%
Drop percentage
KP- 3.2%
Howell- 3.9%
Purdy- 3.1%
Ridder- 5.9%
Pressure %
KP- 29.4%
Howell- 25.1%
Purdy- 22.6%
Ridder- 24.4%
From what I see is Pickett is doubling the poor decision making but having between 4-7% more pressure. Drops are relatively low for him and Purdy while Ridder is about double in that category and Howell is slightly higher than the other two.

Now again look at Howell. Has about the same system deficiencies as Pickett with your chart. Has about 4% less pressures. Slightly more drops. But makes about half as many bad decisions. IMO that’s why Howell has better passing numbers. And that’s what I have been saying. Kenny needs to make better decisions.
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Well sort of… Howell has more good throws because Howell is standing in the pocket and taking the hits… but not in a healthy way… in 5 games this year he has 29 sacks and 19 hits… thats over 9 contacts per game… that is physically unsustainable numbers … he is on pace for almost 100 sacks… he will either get really hurt or develop the same bad footwork as Pickett… this is why you absolutely need a line before trying to develop a qb… Howell is definitely going to have David carr syndrome if he keeps standing in there like that
 
FordFairLane said:

Where is Washington in comparison to Pittsburgh? You used this to compare Purdy to Pickett. I am using it to compare Howell to Pickett…

Are you saying I can’t compare statistics because the circumstances aren’t exactly the same with Howell and Pickett but you can use the exact same graph to compare Pickett to Purdy?

I am not. I am using the chart you used to compare Pickett and Purdy. I am just comparing Pickett to Howell.
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I stand by my postings they were thorough and show everything I pointed out.
 
If you remember, the first couple of games last year .. pickett was standing in the pocket and making good throws… then that hit in the Tampa game happened and he started bailing out a little… after the Ravens game he just hasn’t had the same technique.. and last year the line was a lot better than this year… now he just feels the pressure all the time.

This is a confidence and footwork issue… it doesn’t happen when he is dialed in late in close games… i think he fears another concussion

It was a huge red flag for me when the announcers were talking about Kenny telling them how beat up he is after games this year.. its definitely in his head…

This is where a true QB guru would be useful… not just a guy saying “ play better”
 
madinsomniac said:
If you remember, the first couple of games last year .. pickett was standing in the pocket and making good throws… then that hit in the Tampa game happened and he started bailing out a little… after the Ravens game he just hasn’t had the same technique.. and last year the line was a lot better than this year… now he just feels the pressure all the time.

This is a confidence and footwork issue… it doesn’t happen when he is dialed in late in close games… i think he fears another concussion

It was a huge red flag for me when the announcers were talking about Kenny telling them how beat up he is after games this year.. its definitely in his head…

This is where a true QB guru would be useful… not just a guy saying “ play better”
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I don't think it's just a concussion, he just doesn't like getting hit. Although he's listed as 6'3" and 220 lbs, Pickett has a narrow frame and isn't naturally strong. I think that's a big reason why we see him take so many hard sacks. Defenders have no issues just throwing him down.
 
madinsomniac said:
Well sort of… Howell has more good throws because Howell is standing in the pocket and taking the hits… but not in a healthy way… in 5 games this year he has 29 sacks and 19 hits… thats over 9 contacts per game… that is physically unsustainable numbers … he is on pace for almost 100 sacks… he will either get really hurt or develop the same bad footwork as Pickett… this is why you absolutely need a line before trying to develop a qb… Howell is definitely going to have David carr syndrome if he keeps standing in there like that
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So your argument is Howell is standing in the pocket and making throws. Sorry to tell you that’s what good quarterbacks do. Howell does move around in the pocket and will scramble but he keeps his eyes down field. Kenny runs out of a good pocket all the time. I can show you times he has his back to the receiver running out of a clean pocket when his receiver gets open. Maybe taking that many hits isnt sustainable. But I do know running out of clean pockets is definitely not sustainable for your offense.
 
madinsomniac said:
If you remember, the first couple of games last year .. pickett was standing in the pocket and making good throws… then that hit in the Tampa game happened and he started bailing out a little… after the Ravens game he just hasn’t had the same technique.. and last year the line was a lot better than this year… now he just feels the pressure all the time.

This is a confidence and footwork issue… it doesn’t happen when he is dialed in late in close games… i think he fears another concussion

It was a huge red flag for me when the announcers were talking about Kenny telling them how beat up he is after games this year.. its definitely in his head…

This is where a true QB guru would be useful… not just a guy saying “ play better”
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I guess I don’t remember those games being good. I remember 3 picks vs the jets and getting beat like a redheaded stepchild vs the bills. We were down by like 5 scores at halftime and the bills played a prevent D the entire second half letting the dink & dunk plays between the 80 but tightened up inside the 20.
 
slashsteel said:
I stand by my postings they were thorough and show everything I pointed out.
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So you are going to use that chart to talk about Purdy but are completely ignoring the contradiction it is when comparing Pickett to Howell…
👌
 
FordFairLane said:
So you are going to use that chart to talk about Purdy but are completely ignoring the contradiction it is when comparing Pickett to Howell…
👌
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I explained my stance on Howell. If you didn't grasp it reread what I wrote.👌🤘
 
FordFairLane said:
Oh. Ok.

How about the CPOE metric to compare?
Purdy 3rd
Howell 6th
Ridder 24th
Pickett 27th

Does that metric count or no?
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Sure if you include in the metric that Kenny has a greater pressure rate plus less open WRs , a struggling running game, a O-line that hasn't pass blocked well over the middle , a OC that couldn't X and O himself out of a paper bag, andddd a coaching staff that hasn't corrected his sliding into pressure and sometimes happy feet.

But by all means ignore all of that.

You are obviously stuck in some bizarro world where the only thing matters is a few random things you bring to the table ignoring a plethora of other things brought to the table.

Again one more time try to read this really closely. Sink it in.

Kenny has issues but this team hasn't put him in a favorable situation to progress. And now they need to coach not only his college issues out of him but his gun shy from all the combined things I have mentioned, but you so easily dismissed.


Didn't fit that agenda huh?

If anyone ever wants to know what tunnel vision looks like, just camp out on your doorstep. Where the opinion never changes.

LIke I said to you already you do you.

I look forward to the next thing you want to compare while leaving out the above mentioned.
 
slashsteel said:
Sure if you include in the metric that Kenny has a greater pressure rate plus less open WRs , a struggling running game, a O-line that hasn't pass blocked well over the middle , a OC that couldn't X and O himself out of a paper bag, andddd a coaching staff that hasn't corrected his sliding into pressure and sometimes happy feet.

But by all means ignore all of that.

You are obviously stuck in some bizarro world where the only thing matters is a few random things you bring to the table ignoring a plethora of other things brought to the table.

Again one more time try to read this really closely. Sink it in.

Kenny has issues but this team hasn't put him in a favorable situation to progress. And now they need to coach not only his college issues out of him but his gun shy from all the combined things I have mentioned, but you so easily dismissed.


Didn't fit that agenda huh?

If anyone ever wants to know what tunnel vision looks like, just camp out on your doorstep. Where the opinion never changes.

LIke I said to you already you do you.

I look forward to the next thing you want to compare while leaving out the above mentioned.
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🤔
What is CPOE?
CPOE from Next Gen Stats aims to contextualize how good a quarterback’s completion percentage is while controlling for the difficulty of the throws they attempt. CPOE accounts for air distance, distance from the sideline, target separation from the nearest defender, the quarterback’s distance from the closest pass rusher, pass speed, and time to throw.

But yeah. My agenda. I guess we should check the barometric pressure and field type and grass length of each team before any of these metrics mean anything to you. But those aren’t excuses. Not. At. All.
 
FordFairLane said:
🤔
What is CPOE?
CPOE from Next Gen Stats aims to contextualize how good a quarterback’s completion percentage is while controlling for the difficulty of the throws they attempt. CPOE accounts for air distance, distance from the sideline, target separation from the nearest defender, the quarterback’s distance from the closest pass rusher, pass speed, and time to throw.

But yeah. My agenda. I guess we should check the barometric pressure and field type and grass length of each team before any of these metrics mean anything to you. But those aren’t excuses. Not. At. All.
Click to expand...


It is your agenda

I gave you a **** load of things to factor in but you conveniently ignore all of them.

Then your rebuttal is one metric than you think for some odd reason cancels out the rest. Even if one area was considered a push you know a push when two sources have different opinions? the rest of the mentions weren't a push.

No shocker that has been your calling card. You trust in nothing outside of your opinion that you try to pass off as fact far too often.

Debating with you is talking to a wall because you think you are right always and everyone just doesn't understand football like you.

For how much you enjoy talking down to posters it is ironic that you don't seem to have the ability to learn on the go.

Again you do you.
 
TDX27 said:
When KP or any QB for that matter is drafted, you need to give them a good 3 years to see who they will be. KP is just finishing his 1st year as a starter and getting 1st team practice and reps. Many are calling him a bust already and we should move on. I find this truly laughable. Sure, he may end up being a bust but he is far from that right now. He is a hard worker and a football junkie. I expect him to keep improving. I will definitely give him through next year before I make a judgment one way or another and, yes, having an OC knowing what he is doing and putting someone in a good position to grow and improve is very important.
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I don’t think he’s a bust, I just think he has a low ceiling. I don’t believe he is the Steelers’ next franchise guy.
 
slashsteel said:
It is your agenda

I gave you a **** load of things to factor in but you conveniently ignore all of them.

Then your rebuttal is one metric than you think for some odd reason cancels out the rest. Even if one area was considered a push you know a push when two sources have different opinions? the rest of the mentions weren't a push.

No shocker that has been your calling card. You trust in nothing outside of your opinion that you try to pass off as fact far too often.

Debating with you is talking to a wall because you think you are right always and everyone just doesn't understand football like you.

For how much you enjoy talking down to posters it is ironic that you don't seem to have the ability to learn on the go.

Again you do you.
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What is my agenda?
 
Sarge said:
I don’t think he’s a bust, I just think he has a low ceiling. I don’t believe he is the Steelers’ next franchise guy.
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Possibly but an unknown.

I give it even odds. I think what it looks like today doesn't have to be the same picture next year.

Which is why I usually say it is showing that now. I hope for all Steelers fans it doesn't show that next season.

Think it is easy for fans to think that about any player they are watching that doesn't develop quickly as they wish.

I thought that he might take a while to develop as he took that extra season to hit his stride in college. Doesn't have to mean anything but I thought it was a possibility.
 
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