Kenny Pickett Year 2....EXPECTATIONS....

[Bigappleyinzer]

I got my stats from pro football reference. Not sure if you understand the difference between an average and a mean. I compiled his 77.5 rating from the total results of his first three years.

Cousins was already in his fourth NFL season (at the age of 27) when he became a full-time starter. That's not "early on" in his career.

Haha my man, I am not sure where you got your degree, but if you take 101, 58, and 86, you are not getting 77.5. Mean, Median, Mode, whatever.

I agree that Cousins is a tough comp since he really didn't start until year 4, but D.Carr should absolutely be the goal. He went from a 77 to a 91 rating between his 1st and 2nd year on a MUCH worse team than ours.

Carr is a borderline franchise QB, so if we don't even see this sort of improvement, I would start to panic.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Carr is a borderline franchise QB, so if we don't even see this sort of improvement, I would start to panic.

Yeah, but the Steelers aren't the Browns and no fan ever has to panic, about something they have no control over at least.

 

[TDX27]

KP's excuse is Canaduh. KP should show improvement but the O doesn't look that different in camp from what I've read. Until Canaduh is gone, KP won't live up to his full potential but he should improve from last year when he didn't practice with 1's or start the season as the QB1. Year 3 is when you can start to realistically say what KP will do in this league.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

KP's excuse is Canaduh. KP should show improvement but the O doesn't look that different in camp from what I've read. Until Canaduh is gone, KP won't live up to his full potential but he should improve from last year when he didn't practice with 1's or start the season as the QB1. Year 3 is when you can start to realistically say what KP will do in this league.

Unless Canada initiates a plan to stretch the field, defenses will continue to do what they've done the last several years. I'm far from an expert in the game, but it does boggle the mind.

 

[FordFairLane]

I would have Cousins as an example of overpaying for Good. I think that's a problem in the NFL now. It's just become accepted that if you have a starting QB with a pulse, you pay him a huge salary. The media doesn't even bat an eye.

College football has changed. Even old school Nick Saban is going 3 WR and throwing it all over the yard. It used to take years for QBs to develop in the NFL. Ben started as a rookie but that was a rarity at that time. Also, it wasn't by design. He only started that soon due to injury.

Now QBs in college are far more developed and part of that is that the NFL has adopted more college concepts. The days of waiting 3 or more years for your QB to develop are gone.

Teams do need to get more comfortable with letting QBs walk and drafting a new one. When you win the lottery and draft that elite QB, keep him forever. But if you have a guy who is good but not elite, don't pay him like he is elite.

The worst thing for a team is not drafting a bust. You can just draft another guy in a year. The worst is drafting a guy who is pretty good, then you pay him a ton of money, hoping he becomes elite, and he just leads you to the wildcard each year.

Yeah, I think your GM's need to be better with spending money. I honestly hated us signing Trubisky to that new deal. I would have either cut, traded or just let him ride out the last year. I get spreading out the contract short termed helped our cap but we likely cut him next year and we eat 5 million on the 2024 salary cap. I would have rather used that money to roll over for when we need to extend someone. I understand that they wanted a veteran behind Pickett but I would rather save the cash and roll with Rudolph at #2. Then if Pickett deserved a 2nd contract we could have saved 10 million in cap space by rolling it over. And I agree you pay a guy what he is worth. I mean you can get Andy Dalton for $5,000,000 a season right now. He will get you 3500 yards and a 2:1 td to int ratio at 36 years old. Si if Kenny isn't doing better than that why would a team break the bank when you can literally pick up a QB off the scrap heap that can give you that type of production. Sign a vet draft a new QB and move on. Don't handcuff your team to a contract for 3-4 years.

 

[Drink IRON City]

My expectations for Kenny Pickett this up-coming season……….

1). I’d think 1-3 million in endorsements

2). If they make the playoffs, then nearing 4-5 mil in endorsements

3). Should they win a PO game, add another mil for each until the SB win, then the sky becomes blueR.


Salute the nation

 

[TDX27]

Unless Canada initiates a plan to stretch the field, defenses will continue to do what they've done the last several years. I'm far from an expert in the game, but it does boggle the mind.

He could but he hasn't really done much of it in camp so far. I've read most plays are still like last year and going to the sidelines and not much in the middle of the field.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

My expectations for Kenny Pickett this up-coming season……….

1). I’d think 1-3 million in endorsements

2). If they make the playoffs, then nearing 4-5 mil in endorsements

3). Should they win a PO game, add another mil for each until the SB win, then the sky becomes blueR.


Salute the nation

He probably already has the endorsement from Bowser Chevrolet in Monroeville sewn up.

 

[topseed]

Haha my man, I am not sure where you got your degree, but if you take 101, 58, and 86, you are not getting 77.5. Mean, Median, Mode, whatever.

If you must know, I majored in finance at Penn State.

I'm not sure that you graduated from high school. You can't just take those three separate passer rating numbers and average them, because they're not equal variables. Cousins only had 48 attempts the season in which he had that 101.6 rating. He had more than triple those attempts in year 2, when his rating was 58.4. Thus, when we total all of his attempts in years 1-3 and plug it in to the formula that yields NFL passer rating, the final number for those seasons is 77.5.

Understand?

I agree that Cousins is a tough comp since he really didn't start until year 4, but D.Carr should absolutely be the goal. He went from a 77 to a 91 rating between his 1st and 2nd year on a MUCH worse team than ours.

Carr is a borderline franchise QB, so if we don't even see this sort of improvement, I would start to panic.

I agree that Carr is a much better example.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Yeah, I think your GM's need to be better with spending money. I honestly hated us signing Trubisky to that new deal. I would have either cut, traded or just let him ride out the last year. I get spreading out the contract short termed helped our cap but we likely cut him next year and we eat 5 million on the 2024 salary cap. I would have rather used that money to roll over for when we need to extend someone. I understand that they wanted a veteran behind Pickett but I would rather save the cash and roll with Rudolph at #2. Then if Pickett deserved a 2nd contract we could have saved 10 million in cap space by rolling it over. And I agree you pay a guy what he is worth. I mean you can get Andy Dalton for $5,000,000 a season right now. He will get you 3500 yards and a 2:1 td to int ratio at 36 years old. Si if Kenny isn't doing better than that why would a team break the bank when you can literally pick up a QB off the scrap heap that can give you that type of production. Sign a vet draft a new QB and move on. Don't handcuff your team to a contract for 3-4 years.

They did not plan to start Kennny last year. We were told Canada liked Mitch to run his magic offense. The plan seemed to be, start Mitch and get the full Canada offense fully installed. You know, once they got rid of that Hall of Fame QB that was holding Canada back, he could finally unleash all 10 plays in his book.

It made sense to sign Mitch and he was cheap for a QB with that many starts.

Mitch could be great trade bait this year. Just wait for a desperate team to come calling once their starter gets hurt or looks like crap.

Green Bay is going with Jordan Love. His backup is Sean Clifford. If Love looks shaky then Mitch will be real attractive to GB.
Washington is rolling with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brisett
Atlanta's coaches are on the hot seat. They are going with Desmond Ridder.

 

[Drink IRON City]

If you must know, I majored in finance at Penn State.

I'm not sure that you graduated from high school. You can't just take those three separate passer rating numbers and average them, because they're not equal variables. Cousins only had 48 attempts the season in which he had that 101.6 rating. He had more than triple those attempts in year 2, when his rating was 58.4. Thus, when we total all of his attempts in years 1-3 and plug it in to the formula that yields NFL passer rating, the final number for those seasons is 77.5.

Understand?

I agree that Carr is a much better example.

Nice explanation topseed, I too was a little stumped but now it makes perfect sense. Thanks for looking up all the stats to go with that explanation as well.


Salute the nation

 

[slashsteel]

They did not plan to start Kennny last year. We were told Canada liked Mitch to run his magic offense. The plan seemed to be, start Mitch and get the full Canada offense fully installed. You know, once they got rid of that Hall of Fame QB that was holding Canada back, he could finally unleash all 10 plays in his book.

It made sense to sign Mitch and he was cheap for a QB with that many starts.

Mitch could be great trade bait this year. Just wait for a desperate team to come calling once their starter gets hurt or looks like crap.

Green Bay is going with Jordan Love. His backup is Sean Clifford. If Love looks shaky then Mitch will be real attractive to GB.
Washington is rolling with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brisett
Atlanta's coaches are on the hot seat. They are going with Desmond Ridder.

Mitch had a solid camp. No way would I trade him and go with Rudy the red nosed third stringer as the primary backup.That is trading away solid depth and settling for shaky depth. Downgrading depth just never is a good approach. Not sure MT brings attractive compensation if all things were created equal. I view the guy as a solid backup. Not sure teams view him more than that.

 

[Drink IRON City]

I think Mitch is here for the duration. We got him on a good deal and I think Mitch is settled in the back-up role. RUDY is here due to his familiarity of the “O” and his playing experience. There is no intent on making Rudy #2.


Salute the nation

 

[madinsomniac]

I think Mitch is here for the duration. We got him on a good deal and I think Mitch is settled in the back-up role. RUDY is here due to his familiarity of the “O” and his playing experience. There is no intent on making Rudy #2.

Salute the nation

Much depends on how the season starts and honestly what Mitch wants… if the season starts spectacularly and we look like contenders right away then I doubt they look to trade anyone.
Unless, of course, someone really wants out… if a starting job becomes available and Mitch really wants to go for it… i can’t believe they will” hold him hostage” as they say lol

 

[Troglodyte]

“If the most important player on the team is the QB, the second most important players on the team is the backup QB” is an overstatement but there is also some truth to it, especially given Pickett’s injuries his rookie year. No way I trade Mitch.

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

If you must know, I majored in finance at Penn State.

I'm not sure that you graduated from high school. You can't just take those three separate passer rating numbers and average them, because they're not equal variables. Cousins only had 48 attempts the season in which he had that 101.6 rating. He had more than triple those attempts in year 2, when his rating was 58.4. Thus, when we total all of his attempts in years 1-3 and plug it in to the formula that yields NFL passer rating, the final number for those seasons is 77.5.

Understand?

I agree that Carr is a much better example.

1.) You are referring to *weighted* averages. And yes, I am familiar with the concept.
2.) I will readily admit that I was not aware that QB Ratings were based of weighted averages of attempts (I assumed games played). But to quote Alexander Pope 'To admit you are wrong only proves that you are wiser today".

 

[TDX27]

Overall, KP has looked good at camp from everything I've read and seen. I can't wait to see him in the preseason games and then to start the season. Hopefully, Canaduh truly will open things up for him including audibles and the middle of the field.

 

[Fiji Mariner]

“If the most important player on the team is the QB, the second most important players on the team is the backup QB” is an overstatement but there is also some truth to it, especially given Pickett’s injuries his rookie year. No way I trade Mitch.,

I would say the most important person on this team is Watt, when he is out the whole D suffers as does the whole team

The difference between QB 1 and 2 on this roster is negligible and not much drop off, not sure if KP is even the second most important player on this team…more likely Cam or Minkah imo

On most teams you are correct tho

 

[Troglodyte]

I would say the most important person on this team is Watt, when he is out the whole D suffers as does the whole team

The difference between QB 1 and 2 on this roster is negligible and not much drop off, not sure if KP is even the second most important player on this team…more likely Cam or Minkah imo

On most teams you are correct tho

Watt is the best player, QB is the most important position. Truer now more than ever.

 

[FordFairLane]

They did not plan to start Kennny last year. We were told Canada liked Mitch to run his magic offense. The plan seemed to be, start Mitch and get the full Canada offense fully installed. You know, once they got rid of that Hall of Fame QB that was holding Canada back, he could finally unleash all 10 plays in his book.

It made sense to sign Mitch and he was cheap for a QB with that many starts.

Mitch could be great trade bait this year. Just wait for a desperate team to come calling once their starter gets hurt or looks like crap.

Green Bay is going with Jordan Love. His backup is Sean Clifford. If Love looks shaky then Mitch will be real attractive to GB.
Washington is rolling with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brisett
Atlanta's coaches are on the hot seat. They are going with Desmond Ridder.

I like what the Packers did. They went cheap at QB. They are going into the season knowing they need to eat some salary cap hits and knowing they put their eggs in the Jordan Love basket. They have 57 million in dead money. Love has one year to at least show promise. If he doesn't they'll look in the draft for competition next year. If he shows promise they still likely draft someone but not as a priority. If he is banging Clifford probably plays out his 4 year 4 million dollar contract as the backup. Lots of money will be spent elsewhere including Love. And in my opinion if I could have Sean Clifford at 1 million vs Trubisky at 8 million I am jumping on the Clifford bus. Clifford probably isn't as physically talented as Mitch but he is a smart guy and brings that to the table.

Lets say KP gets injured and is out for a month. I just don't see that Mitch is going to win any games for us that month. Not anymore than Rudolph or Clifford. Trubisky is just a guy. We know what he is. A below average QB. And if we were a super bowl contender I might change my mind but right now we are a pretender. We are building something but we need Pickett to take some steps and I don't expect him to take them all in 2023. I am hoping 2024 or 2025 is our year.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Here's hoping they unleash hell on the pigeons this year.

 

[madinsomniac]

1.) You are referring to *weighted* averages. And yes, I am familiar with the concept.
2.) I will readily admit that I was not aware that QB Ratings were based of weighted averages of attempts (I assumed games played). But to quote Alexander Pope 'To admit you are wrong only proves that you are wiser today".

Passer rating is based on total attempts, completions, yardage, tds, and picks.
If one year a guy goes 1/1 for 99 yards and a td and has a perfect passer rating of 158.3 then the next year goes 40/100 for 400 yards, 4 tds and 8 picks and has a 32.08 passer rating that season, his career average passer rating is not 95.19, its 40.04….

I think Cousins or Carr would be good examples but remember that Drew Brees was that kind of guy with a low end arm who’s first three seasons were trash and he developed year 4. Not saying that KP is going to be anything near him but it can happen

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

I'm not saying give Mitch away but if you can get a 2nd rounder for him or maybe even a 1 if a team loses a starter and gets desperate then you pull that trigger.

Do you think the Steelers are in Super Bowl mode this year? I don't. I expect them to be improved but not at that level yet. So i'm willing to be thin at QB for a season if it means stockpiling picks for next year.

 

[topseed]

Much depends on how the season starts and honestly what Mitch wants… if the season starts spectacularly and we look like contenders right away then I doubt they look to trade anyone.
Unless, of course, someone really wants out… if a starting job becomes available and Mitch really wants to go for it… i can’t believe they will” hold him hostage” as they say lol

I'd imagine that If Mitch wanted out or to go for a shot at a starting job, he most likely wouldn't have signed a 2-year extension with the Steelers through 2025.

 

[topseed]

1.) You are referring to *weighted* averages. And yes, I am familiar with the concept.
2.) I will readily admit that I was not aware that QB Ratings were based of weighted averages of attempts (I assumed games played). But to quote Alexander Pope 'To admit you are wrong only proves that you are wiser today".

NFL passer rating only includes 5 variables: attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. So it is by no means a comprehensive stat...that's probably why ESPN introduced the "Total QBR" in 2011. Here's an article from ESPN explaining how they do it (with Cousins, ironically, as an example):

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating