Kenny Pickett Year 2....EXPECTATIONS....

[FordFairLane]

Based on what I've seen, the guy is Andy Dalton. Hopefully he'll improve on that.

Steelers with a good running game and elite defense can win a superbowl with an Andy Dalton at QB. Honestly, Dalton was a 25ish td to 10ish ints at his peak. with upper three thousand to low four thousand yards. Not elite but good enough to put your team in contention to win. If Pickett can play big in big moments and hit those numbers we can win with him.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Steelers with a good running game and elite defense can win a superbowl with an Andy Dalton at QB. Honestly, Dalton was a 25ish td to 10ish ints at his peak. with upper three thousand to low four thousand yards. Not elite but good enough to put your team in contention to win. If Pickett can play big in big moments and hit those numbers we can win with him.

Yep. Pickett was never going to be a Ben, Mahomes, Herbert, etc. Dalton was a common comparison. I thought similar to Carr or if he maxed out, Cousins. You can win with all those guys, but what was lacking was the inability to lead teams in crucial moments. I think Pickett has "it". As I said earlier in this thread, I only expect moderate improvement this season. Part of that is by the offensive design, part by a poor OC/scheme, and part on the QB's ability. Year three will have to be the jump year, we just have to see progression toward that this season.

 

[FordFairLane]

Yep. Pickett was never going to be a Ben, Mahomes, Herbert, etc. Dalton was a common comparison. I thought similar to Carr or if he maxed out, Cousins. You can win with all those guys, but what was lacking was the inability to lead teams in crucial moments. I think Pickett has "it". As I said earlier in this thread, I only expect moderate improvement this season. Part of that is by the offensive design, part by a poor OC/scheme, and part on the QB's ability. Year three will have to be the jump year, we just have to see progression toward that this season.

Yep. Cousins would be his ceiling imo. Kirk is a 4000+ yard 30ish td to 10ish int QB. Kirk is pretty consistently in that top 10 passing numbers category. He isn't going to lead the NFL in passing but he will crack top 5 now and again. That is all we need to win.

 

[DesertSteel]

My doubt on Kenny is his ceiling. He'll be a solid NFL QB but maybe not the guy that elevates a team. I also think Canada's offense is very limiting so it will be hard to judge Kenny. It's like judging a nascar driver when he's driving the pace car.

or a Yugo

 

[slashsteel]

Thought QB Kenny Pickett struggled yesterday. Today, he's having a great practice. Every throw on the money. #Steelers

— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) August 5, 2023


His haters won't like hearing this. Keep working hard Kenny!


I have no idea where his ceiling is, year three probably will give us a better indication...

 

[SteelerFan448]

Yep. Cousins would be his ceiling imo. Kirk is a 4000+ yard 30ish td to 10ish int QB. Kirk is pretty consistently in that top 10 passing numbers category. He isn't going to lead the NFL in passing but he will crack top 5 now and again. That is all we need to win.

Let’s be clear, too, Cousins would be an excellent ceiling.

 

[slashsteel]

Let’s be clear, too, Cousins would be an excellent ceiling.

Some people say Cousins like that is a bad thing. The guy is a winner...

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

I’ve compared Kenny to Cousins and Dalton and people acted like I was calling Kenny a bust. Cousins and Dalton are pretty good NFL QBs who’ve won a lot of games. it’s near impossible to win today with a bad QB but you can win with an above average game manager if your supporting cast is good enough. Rams made the SB with Goff. Ravens won it with Flacco. Manning and Brady each won a SB late in their careers when their arms were near shot.

The model is that you have a cheap QB and it allows you to stack talent around him so he can be a game manager. OR you pay your QB a ton of money and have to get by with lower priced talent around him. In order for the high priced QB model to work, he has to be good enough to elevate lesser players.

Mahomes. It doesn’t matter how much you pay him. He’s worth it because you can trade away Tyreek Hill and win a SB with Pacheco at RB and a bunch of #2 WRs. Mahomes lifts them up. Chiefs probably win 7 games if Mahomes blows out his ACL tomorrow.

But there’s a downside to paying a QB. If he’s not elite then he will not be able to elevate a lower priced roster.

The funny part is that many of these QBs do well on their rookie deal because they are lifted by a great cast. Then they get paid and as the roster erodes, so does their success.

Kyler Murray. He looked good early but since getting paid, they had to let good players go to compensate. Now Murray is struggling and may drag that team down for years.

Dak Prescott. He’s been pretty good but does he elevate those around him? What haopens when they have to pay Micah Parsons on defense?

Russell Wilson. He won on a loaded roster on his rookie deal. Then he got paid and Seattle’s roster fell apart. The media kept saying “let Russ Cook". They let him cook and he served up raw chicken, so they let him go to Denver and that has been a disaster so far.

Jalen Hurts. He has played well but he’s also on a loaded team. How long will they be able to keep guys like AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Goedert along with that OL? Eagles need to hope that Hurts develops into Mahomes and isn’t more like Wilson who may have been lifted by a strong supporting cast.


This is all to say that when paying your QB, you better be right. Teams are far to quick to give big bucks to QBs who have merely flashed like Dak or Justin Herbert.


That’s why keeping Canada scares me. If it goes south again this year then there will be a new OC and Kenny will be learning a new offense in year 3. That means they could be into year 4 before getting a good evaluation on Kenny. The Giants found themselves in that situation with Daniel Jones and had to go out on a limb paying him big money just for flashes.

 

[topseed]

Some people say Cousins like that is a bad thing. The guy is a winner...

Not in the postseason. Cousins is 1-4 in the playoffs. One win in eleven seasons.

Not a good thing.

 

[topseed]

I’ve compared Kenny to Cousins and Dalton and people acted like I was calling Kenny a bust. Cousins and Dalton are pretty good NFL QBs who’ve won a lot of games. it’s near impossible to win today with a bad QB but you can win with an above average game manager if your supporting cast is good enough. Rams made the SB with Goff. Ravens won it with Flacco. Manning and Brady each won a SB late in their careers when their arms were near shot.

The model is that you have a cheap QB and it allows you to stack talent around him so he can be a game manager. OR you pay your QB a ton of money and have to get by with lower priced talent around him. In order for the high priced QB model to work, he has to be good enough to elevate lesser players.

But that model doesn't apply with Cousins. He isn't "cheap." He's made an average of $28.4 million over the last 7 seasons. The guy made 40 MILLION in 2022...$10.5 million more than Mahomes made. His teams have made the playoffs in only 4 out of the 8 seasons since Cousins has been a starter, and his postseason record is 1-3 during that time.

No thanks.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Not in the postseason. Cousins is 1-4 in the playoffs. One win in eleven seasons.

Not a good thing.

He'd fit right in with the expectations in Pittsburgh.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

But that model doesn't apply with Cousins. He isn't "cheap." He's made an average of $28.4 million over the last 7 seasons. The guy made 40 MILLION in 2022...$10.5 million more than Mahomes made. His teams have made the playoffs in only 4 out of the 8 seasons since Cousins has been a starter, and his postseason record is 1-3 during that time.

No thanks.

I would have Cousins as an example of overpaying for Good. I think that's a problem in the NFL now. It's just become accepted that if you have a starting QB with a pulse, you pay him a huge salary. The media doesn't even bat an eye.

College football has changed. Even old school Nick Saban is going 3 WR and throwing it all over the yard. It used to take years for QBs to develop in the NFL. Ben started as a rookie but that was a rarity at that time. Also, it wasn't by design. He only started that soon due to injury.

Now QBs in college are far more developed and part of that is that the NFL has adopted more college concepts. The days of waiting 3 or more years for your QB to develop are gone.

Teams do need to get more comfortable with letting QBs walk and drafting a new one. When you win the lottery and draft that elite QB, keep him forever. But if you have a guy who is good but not elite, don't pay him like he is elite.

The worst thing for a team is not drafting a bust. You can just draft another guy in a year. The worst is drafting a guy who is pretty good, then you pay him a ton of money, hoping he becomes elite, and he just leads you to the wildcard each year.

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Interesting stats on Cousins vs Burrow. Cousins has played better than many think

 

[Confluence]

I would have Cousins as an example of overpaying for Good. I think that's a problem in the NFL now. It's just become accepted that if you have a starting QB with a pulse, you pay him a huge salary. The media doesn't even bat an eye.

College football has changed. Even old school Nick Saban is going 3 WR and throwing it all over the yard. It used to take years for QBs to develop in the NFL. Ben started as a rookie but that was a rarity at that time. Also, it wasn't by design. He only started that soon due to injury.

Now QBs in college are far more developed and part of that is that the NFL has adopted more college concepts. The days of waiting 3 or more years for your QB to develop are gone.

Teams do need to get more comfortable with letting QBs walk and drafting a new one. When you win the lottery and draft that elite QB, keep him forever. But if you have a guy who is good but not elite, don't pay him like he is elite.

The worst thing for a team is not drafting a bust. You can just draft another guy in a year. The worst is drafting a guy who is pretty good, then you pay him a ton of money, hoping he becomes elite, and he just leads you to the wildcard each year.

Never draft a QB named Carr

 

[Fiji Mariner]

He gave up on Pickett in like week 9. His take on a rookie is typical of what I was talking about earlier. If the guy doesn't come out and have a great rookie season like Herbert or Burrow, well then he sucks. Those guys are special players and they don't grow on trees. At the very least, Pickett deserves a year in an offense that isn't knee capped by a mental midget like Matt Canada. Then maybe you'll know what you have.

Pickett has been pretty mid so far. I just can't say definitively if it is Pickett Or Canada or both because the offense is a mess that sets no one up for success.

Pickett would’ve needed to improve about 10 spots to even be “mid” last year sadly enough…I hear ya tho, how much of that is Captain Crayon calling the plays and drawing up a “game plan”. There was growth for him tho as towards the end of the season he actually did look pretty mid

It’s like they allow a guy who knows nothing about route combinations to create a game plan. He’s a one move at a time checkers player involved in a game of chess…and frequently too busy eating his crayons to even plan 1 move ahead

I have high hopes Kenny can attain that “mid” ceiling this year under Captain Crayon as mid may be good enough to keep the all important standard alive

 

[Drink IRON City]

Not in the postseason. Cousins is 1-4 in the playoffs. One win in eleven seasons.

Not a good thing.

Nearing Tomlin like status…………..


Salute the nation

 

[Drink IRON City]

I’ve compared Kenny to Cousins and Dalton and people acted like I was calling Kenny a bust. Cousins and Dalton are pretty good NFL QBs who’ve won a lot of games. it’s near impossible to win today with a bad QB but you can win with an above average game manager if your supporting cast is good enough. Rams made the SB with Goff. Ravens won it with Flacco. Manning and Brady each won a SB late in their careers when their arms were near shot.

The model is that you have a cheap QB and it allows you to stack talent around him so he can be a game manager. OR you pay your QB a ton of money and have to get by with lower priced talent around him. In order for the high priced QB model to work, he has to be good enough to elevate lesser players.

Mahomes. It doesn’t matter how much you pay him. He’s worth it because you can trade away Tyreek Hill and win a SB with Pacheco at RB and a bunch of #2 WRs. Mahomes lifts them up. Chiefs probably win 7 games if Mahomes blows out his ACL tomorrow.

But there’s a downside to paying a QB. If he’s not elite then he will not be able to elevate a lower priced roster.

The funny part is that many of these QBs do well on their rookie deal because they are lifted by a great cast. Then they get paid and as the roster erodes, so does their success.

Kyler Murray. He looked good early but since getting paid, they had to let good players go to compensate. Now Murray is struggling and may drag that team down for years.

Dak Prescott. He’s been pretty good but does he elevate those around him? What haopens when they have to pay Micah Parsons on defense?

Russell Wilson. He won on a loaded roster on his rookie deal. Then he got paid and Seattle’s roster fell apart. The media kept saying “let Russ Cook". They let him cook and he served up raw chicken, so they let him go to Denver and that has been a disaster so far.

Jalen Hurts. He has played well but he’s also on a loaded team. How long will they be able to keep guys like AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Goedert along with that OL? Eagles need to hope that Hurts develops into Mahomes and isn’t more like Wilson who may have been lifted by a strong supporting cast.


This is all to say that when paying your QB, you better be right. Teams are far to quick to give big bucks to QBs who have merely flashed like Dak or Justin Herbert.


That’s why keeping Canada scares me. If it goes south again this year then there will be a new OC and Kenny will be learning a new offense in year 3. That means they could be into year 4 before getting a good evaluation on Kenny. The Giants found themselves in that situation with Daniel Jones and had to go out on a limb paying him big money just for flashes.

Many here preached how replacing O’Canada would stunt KFP’s growth. I paraded that keeping O’Canada would stunt his growth even more.

O’Canada should have been fired 1st season (in-season) and we never looked back.


Salute the nation

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

My concern is that we haven't heard that much favorable reports of KP thus far (outside of one practice).

I also think some of you are delusional if you think the team will sit back and wait for 3 years for his growth. He isn't a top-5 pick, where you are hoping for him to tap in to some massive upside (especially when he is projected as a high floor/low-ceiling player).

If he doesn't show material growth this year (which shouldn't be difficult considering his stats last year), the Steelers will certainly be in the market for a QB.

As for the Kirk Cousins Derek Carr comps? I would love that! But lets not forget that those guys looked good from early on, so next year will be a big litmus test for KP.

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

I’ve compared Kenny to Cousins and Dalton and people acted like I was calling Kenny a bust. Cousins and Dalton are pretty good NFL QBs who’ve won a lot of games. it’s near impossible to win today with a bad QB but you can win with an above average game manager if your supporting cast is good enough. Rams made the SB with Goff. Ravens won it with Flacco. Manning and Brady each won a SB late in their careers when their arms were near shot.

The model is that you have a cheap QB and it allows you to stack talent around him so he can be a game manager. OR you pay your QB a ton of money and have to get by with lower priced talent around him. In order for the high priced QB model to work, he has to be good enough to elevate lesser players.

Mahomes. It doesn’t matter how much you pay him. He’s worth it because you can trade away Tyreek Hill and win a SB with Pacheco at RB and a bunch of #2 WRs. Mahomes lifts them up. Chiefs probably win 7 games if Mahomes blows out his ACL tomorrow.

But there’s a downside to paying a QB. If he’s not elite then he will not be able to elevate a lower priced roster.

The funny part is that many of these QBs do well on their rookie deal because they are lifted by a great cast. Then they get paid and as the roster erodes, so does their success.

Kyler Murray. He looked good early but since getting paid, they had to let good players go to compensate. Now Murray is struggling and may drag that team down for years.

Dak Prescott. He’s been pretty good but does he elevate those around him? What haopens when they have to pay Micah Parsons on defense?

Russell Wilson. He won on a loaded roster on his rookie deal. Then he got paid and Seattle’s roster fell apart. The media kept saying “let Russ Cook". They let him cook and he served up raw chicken, so they let him go to Denver and that has been a disaster so far.

Jalen Hurts. He has played well but he’s also on a loaded team. How long will they be able to keep guys like AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Goedert along with that OL? Eagles need to hope that Hurts develops into Mahomes and isn’t more like Wilson who may have been lifted by a strong supporting cast.


This is all to say that when paying your QB, you better be right. Teams are far to quick to give big bucks to QBs who have merely flashed like Dak or Justin Herbert.


That’s why keeping Canada scares me. If it goes south again this year then there will be a new OC and Kenny will be learning a new offense in year 3. That means they could be into year 4 before getting a good evaluation on Kenny. The Giants found themselves in that situation with Daniel Jones and had to go out on a limb paying him big money just for flashes.

Couple of things:

1.) I think the game is simply different, which is why Mahomes was able to accomplish what he did last yearSB. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of this going forward (i.e. Burrow, Hurts). This wasn't the case 10 years ago, which is why the guys that filled the stat sheet (Brees, Rodgers) could never replicate this success, and why the rookie-QB contract was SO important. Consequently, I think that you are going to see more teams opting for the Chiefs-model as opposed to the Titans-model.

2.)D.Jones and KP situations are very different. Daniel Jones (who is barely average), was a top pick, which is why he was given so much latitude. And he has barely even 'flashed' four years later when they fired their coaches.

Also, I know that everyone wants to put KP's struggles at the hands of Canada- but D.Jones still surprisingly had better stats early in his career than KP, even with a supposedly awful OC.

 

[topseed]

As for the Kirk Cousins Derek Carr comps? I would love that! But lets not forget that those guys looked good from early on, so next year will be a big litmus test for KP.

That's not true at all. Cousins was 2-7 as a starter over his first three seasons, with a passer rating of 77.5.

 

[Litos]

Not in the postseason. Cousins is 1-4 in the playoffs. One win in eleven seasons.

Not a good thing.

But KP has the eye of the tiger, he is Mr. Clutch.

 

[topseed]

But KP has the eye of the tiger, he is Mr. Clutch.

I agree. But I never likened Pickett to Cousins in the first place. I think KP has more upside. Much more.

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

That's not true at all. Cousins was 2-7 as a starter over his first three seasons, with a passer rating of 77.5.

Not sure where you are getting your stats from-

He was a spot starter for the first 3 years (so his record is basically a nonsequitor) with ratings of 101, 58, and 86. This would put him at an average of ~82. In fact his first year as a starter he had a rating of 101.

No excuses for KP, especially with these weapons. If he is not in the high 80's/Low 90's rating (which would only put him on the same level as Heineke or a Brisset), time to start looking for the Franchise QB.

 

[topseed]

Not sure where you are getting your stats from-

He was a spot starter for the first 3 years (so his record is basically a nonsequitor) with ratings of 101, 58, and 86. This would put him at an average of ~82. In fact his first year as a starter he had a rating of 101.

No excuses for KP, especially with these weapons. If he is not in the high 80's/Low 90's rating (which would only put him on the same level as Heineke or a Brisset), time to start looking for the Franchise QB.

I got my stats from pro football reference. Not sure if you understand the difference between an average and a mean. I compiled his 77.5 rating from the total results of his first three years.

Cousins was already in his fourth NFL season (at the age of 27) when he became a full-time starter. That's not "early on" in his career.

 

[Drink IRON City]

I got my stats from pro football reference. Not sure if you understand the difference between an average and a mean. I compiled his 77.5 rating from the total results of his first three years.

Cousins was already in his fourth NFL season (at the age of 27) when he became a full-time starter. That's not "early on" in his career.

Cousins was an anomaly when it came to starting. Didn’t really get the full chance until later as you say. Kind of reminds me a little on the ****-stick Roger’s getting his chance……………..


Salute the nation