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Rural Ohio

How many times have polls picked the wrong president like a week before the election?

Even vegas hasv Trump as the underdog now
 
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It's anecdotal from people I know who live there part of the year. So if it's inaccurate for where you live I don't know what to tell you. The governor forbade localities from mandating anything that went beyond state policy until June 22 so I don't know what you mean by they were mandatory everywhere.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...na-gov-doug-ducey-update-covid-19/3208320001/

Uhhh, you mean they were mandatory until about two weeks ago?

And I live in Arizona, where you apparently have not been since the Chinese flu outbreak, and your statement that things are "back to normal" here is ludicrous.
 
How many times have polls picked the wrong president like a week before the election?

The last time.

Further, polling is now a fraudulent device to shape opinion. You never look at the underlying data, I bet. You think a poll is valid where it polls 8% more (D)ims than Republicans?

Let’s look closer at the CNN poll. The poll was commissioned by CNN but was conducted by SSRS, “an independent research company.” It wasn’t actually Don Lemon and Jim Acosta on the street corner asking passersby who they favored in the 2020 presidential election.

The poll sample is important. Oversampling Democrats will skew the results in favor of the Democrat candidate. In this poll, 34 percent identified as Democrat while only 26 percent described themselves as Republican, an eight-point difference. Imagine the results if those percentages were flipped.

They also surveyed registered, not likely, voters. Given that only slightly more than half of eligible voters actually voted in the 2016 presidential election, this too is not a representative sample.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...olling_data_the_media_doesn_t_want_you_to_see

"In every poll, Democrat respondents outnumbered Republicans by significant amounts. The Economist poll was the worst. Only 24 percent of respondents (360) were Republicans compared to 38 percent (570) Democrats – which means that 58 percent more Democrats were polled than Republicans, as shown in the %D/R column. On average, in these seven widely recognized national polls, only 29 percent (409 people) of the total 1,383 polled were Republicans, while 37 percent (518) were Democrats. Another way of saying it is that, on average, 29 percent more Democrats than Republicans were polled," wrote James Simpson, an economist, businessman and journalist.

Simpson called the practice "fraud."

He also noted that the random sample used by many pollsters includes too many liberals and even illegal immigrants, and said that choosing "likely voters" is the best gauge. McLaughlin and Rasmussen use likely voters and show Trump's approval rating higher than the others.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/fraud-mainstream-polls-use-29-more-democrats-than-republicans

So provide a poll of likely voters, in states that matter, where the number polled is representative of the voter population and I give a ****.

Refer to CNN polls that oversample (D)ims by a wide margin, of registered voters, in all states, and I give this many *****:

iu


Finally, you must have a memory that lasts less than four years because four years ago, the polls ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED THAT PRESIDENT HILLARY WOULD WIN.

Absolutely ******* guaranteed. Remember the 91% confidence?? I do.

The New York Times
Presidential Forecast
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win →

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

That **** was produced on October 18, 2016, by the way.

So sorry if I don't give a flying **** about your reference to some **** in July showing Jo(k)e has a what-the-****-ever chance of winning, based on a poll of seven grocery clerks, three illegals, a protester, and the Cuomo family.
 
I have no idea where you are getting your information, but it is completely and utter bullshit. I actually live in Arizona and up until very recently, masks were MANDATORY for almost any activity. Citizens still wear masks all the time - probably on the order of 50% of the people I see in stores.

Further, Arizona shut down for months, and the re-opening is nowhere close to "back to normal." Most bars and restaurants are operating at 50% capacity, with spacing unlike before, and where all employees wear masks.

So your entire premise is bullshit.

Mask wearing is probably 95% in the valley, but far less in the little mountain community that I live in to avoid the heat.
 
How many times have polls picked the wrong president like a week before the election?

Even vegas hasv Trump as the underdog now

The model that has been correct on every single election except 2 since 1912 picked Trump in '16 (despite his odds being about 1% according to the other polls) and says Trump will win again in '20. Take it for what it's worth.
 
And what is the deal with putting such reliance on polls? I mean, the Polish are good people, but not election experts. Who cares what the Poles say about an upcoming election?
 
67% of this country trust Fauci to handle this pandemic. 26% trust Trump. Now he wants to discredit Fauci.

I know some of you will discredit polls but it's highly unlikely this poll is off by 40 points.

I wouldn't say that. It depends on what questions are asked and who is asked.

Besides, Trump has already followed Fauci so far. He's done everything the CDC has advised. Their problem is that now that there is actual data, they are afraid that Trump will make decisions based on data on not based on the CDC's opinion.

Schools are open in Europe. All data shows that kids are at nearly zero risk
 
I read an article or heard on the radio or somewhere that recent polls on black support of BLM that the saple group was not even exclusively black people. It was some black people but then a huge portion was liberal white people to fill in the blanks.

Casual observation of the protests and riots on TV looks like half of them are white people.
 
Schools are open in Europe. All data shows that kids are at nearly zero risk

Meanwhile, Los Angeles and 29 other counties are now on re-lockdown and kids and working-class families are going to continue suffering. I didn't think California was getting hit very hard by Covid-19 but this Governor is trash. My latest look on the John Hopkins tracker for Covid-19 cases was 422 deaths in ALL of San Diego County (population is 3.8 million):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is a nightmare for millions of working class and poor parents <a href="https://t.co/ZE2i20zFRK">https://t.co/ZE2i20zFRK</a></p>— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) <a href="https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1282744530383581191?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
I don't know what LA is doing so differently than here? Oh, wait:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LA TODAY!!!!! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlackLivesMattters?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlackLivesMattters</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GeorgeFloyd?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#GeorgeFloyd</a> <a href="https://t.co/Cy5CJU5Lh0">pic.twitter.com/Cy5CJU5Lh0</a></p>— Ron Kurokawa (@ronkurokawa) <a href="https://twitter.com/ronkurokawa/status/1269875653802778625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Marching on Sunset Blvd. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlackLivesMatter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlackLivesMatter</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/hollywood?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#hollywood</a> <a href="https://t.co/IABKp1iI2V">pic.twitter.com/IABKp1iI2V</a></p>— Ron Kurokawa (@ronkurokawa) <a href="https://twitter.com/ronkurokawa/status/1272563570048331776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Trump just canned his campaign manager finally. He needs to go back to Kelly Ann. At least he is acknowledging he has a problem
 
Trump just canned his campaign manager finally. He needs to go back to Kelly Ann. At least he is acknowledging he has a problem

I saw that on the news this morning. Good. I was thinking he did not have a campaign. He can't go back to Kelly Ann because of her idiot husband who would get as much news coverage as Trump.
 
I only have 2 points.

First, I am one of those "silent majority" folks. The truth is, you put yourself in a very negative situation by clearly supporting the current administration in this environment. Too many TDS afflicted people out there will make it their priority to attack you, deride you, and go so far as to physically endanger your person or your property.

This is the same stupid move the liberals made prior to the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton doomed her campaign with the "basked to deplorables" comment. She made it unsafe to be honest and forthright about your conservative political affiliation. This lead to the so-called "silent majority". Rather than learn from that and make real efforts to understand truly where voters are aligned, the liberals have doubled down. 80% of us would simply avoid at all costs exposing our conservative view in common discussion and certainly I won't take part in any poll.

Secondly, Honestly, does ANYONE believe Joe Biden and his gaggle of participation trophy hangers-on can even BEGIN to return the American economy to any state of prosperity? Does anyone believe that a strong economy is even possible with anyone other than Trump?

Certainly one can argue that the healthy economy has its downsides in terms of the environment etc. but ultimately we have to decide what is more important to us, economic success with environmental concessions or economic stagnation or even failure due to poor leadership?
 
I only have 2 points.

First, I am one of those "silent majority" folks. The truth is, you put yourself in a very negative situation by clearly supporting the current administration in this environment. Too many TDS afflicted people out there will make it their priority to attack you, deride you, and go so far as to physically endanger your person or your property.

This is the same stupid move the liberals made prior to the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton doomed her campaign with the "basked to deplorables" comment. She made it unsafe to be honest and forthright about your conservative political affiliation. This lead to the so-called "silent majority". Rather than learn from that and make real efforts to understand truly where voters are aligned, the liberals have doubled down. 80% of us would simply avoid at all costs exposing our conservative view in common discussion and certainly I won't take part in any poll.

Secondly, Honestly, does ANYONE believe Joe Biden and his gaggle of participation trophy hangers-on can even BEGIN to return the American economy to any state of prosperity? Does anyone believe that a strong economy is even possible with anyone other than Trump?

Certainly one can argue that the healthy economy has its downsides in terms of the environment etc. but ultimately we have to decide what is more important to us, economic success with environmental concessions or economic stagnation or even failure due to poor leadership?

i still believe (and hope) there are more silent majority folks out there. You make a lot of great points and I am selective to whom I show my hand to. I traveled through West Virginina this past weekend and saw some signs in yards and on boats. None for Biden. There are two type of Biden voters: The Anyone-But-Trump voters and Blue or Bust voters. The undecided votes are where Trump needs to get a solid footing with. He can win this thing if he focuses on the important American issues of 2020 and where he will take us.
 
He can win this thing if he focuses on the important American issues of 2020 and where he will take us.

We're four months from the election. Try to name 5 Trump 2020 policy proposals.
 
In PA last year hillary was up a couple points and Trump won by less than 1%. He is currently down more than 10% in PA. I highly doubt there is that much silent majority. He needs to close the gaps or he is toast
 
Instead of addressing policy issues, or talking about the needs of everyday Americans, or the suffocating effects of Covid on our lives and the economy, Trump will just do what he always does.

Until January, this is what we will see every day. Every single day.

EdDAiTeXsAghfLl
 
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Common early symptoms of dementia
-memory loss.
-difficulty concentrating.
-finding it hard to carry out familiar daily tasks, such as getting confused over the correct change when shopping.
-struggling to follow a conversation or find the right word.
-being confused about time and place.
-mood changes.
 
We're four months from the election. Try to name 5 Trump 2020 policy proposals.

Generally the incumbent continues furthering the agendas/proposals that originally got him elected.

In this case,
- Return of American Manufacturing dominance. (Plenty of work to continue here, particularly in the medical sciences/pharma industries.)

- Border Security. (People can hardly blame the U.S. for stressing border security when other countries around us have now made that a priority themselves. Clearly that's a real need that we should continue addressing.)

- Draining the Swamp. (Obviously, this has become more glaringly important to the survival of this country than it was before.)

- Reduce Unemployment. (Sure, he'd already lead the country when unemployment was brought to its lowest levels since the great depression. And sure, he lead the charge to reduce black unemployment lower than it had ever been, but with Covid-19 and the shutdowns recommended by Fauci et. al. there is plenty of work to be done to regain the recent losses in our unemployment battle.

- Economic Upturn. (I would challenge anyone to point out how Joe Biden could POSSIBLY produce a strong, thriving economy. I personally believe Joe Biden and his folks have no interest whatsoever in a thriving economy. They merely want to drive all wealth out of the country to foreign businesses and accounts. Trump is the only candidate in the race that has any experience or success in stimulating the American economy. Undoubtedly he will endeavor to continue.)

There ya go. 5. And I didn't even get in to the lessening of racial tensions, the placement of another moderate or conservative on the SC, the continuing development of international relations based on equitable terms rather than subservient ones, or a return to the core belief that America is actually about the best country in the world to live in.
 
Common early symptoms of dementia
-memory loss.
-difficulty concentrating.
-finding it hard to carry out familiar daily tasks, such as getting confused over the correct change when shopping.
-struggling to follow a conversation or find the right word.
-being confused about time and place.
-mood changes.

Yeah, you're right, my bad. We can go ahead and add those to the Trump laundry list.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Twitter is just so much nicer, smarter and more peaceful when <a href="https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DonaldJTrumpJr</a> isn’t tweeting. Maybe Unverified Twitter might want to give this <a href="https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MeidasTouch</a> ad another 1M views before he and the other Blue Checks get back? RT & Tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ByeDonJr?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ByeDonJr</a> if you agree <a href="https://t.co/mvtvyhB7X4">pic.twitter.com/mvtvyhB7X4</a></p>— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheDailyEdge/status/1283556647797952523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TrumpFailedAmerica?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TrumpFailedAmerica</a><br>It’s time for him to go.<a href="https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MeidasTouch</a> <a href="https://t.co/7IYct5dbrI">pic.twitter.com/7IYct5dbrI</a></p>— Republicans for Joe Biden (@RepsForBiden) <a href="https://twitter.com/RepsForBiden/status/1283743472181293057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>
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Yeah, you're right, my bad. We can go ahead and add those to the Trump laundry list.

Can you do anything on here without quoting someone or putting up ignorant videos of people that agree with you? Can you not do anything by yourself? No wonder you are a liberal.
 
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