Under Center Vs Shotgun

[madinsomniac]

I meant to write this earlier, but the Canada news kind of waylaid things

So 20 years ago, the staple NFL play was run from under center. While some teams did use a high percentage of shotgun formations, most only used it to gain advantages on long distance passing plays. Defenses were usually built to handle under center plays first and foremost… so you saw lower passer ratings and completion percentages from under center and higher ones from the shotgun in passing stats..

Somewhere in the mid 2000’s it switched, and the shotgun became more prevalent than under center plays.

Defenses followed suit, and as they built themselves to thwart shotgun spread formations on a regular basis, the statistics flip flopped…

NFL coaching is often slow to recognize trends and adapt to them… and coaches and coordinators are loathe to abandon their preferred schemes, even when they are not productive enough anymore….

I say this because if you look at splits across the league, under center passes are typically more productive than shotgun now.. and Pickett’s passer rating, completion percentage and really everything is far better from under center than shotgun… by a lot

Like his passer rating in shotgun is 77 and his completion percentage is 59%
Under center, he has a passer rating of 93 and a completion percentage of 71%
Yet only 14% of his passes come from under center ( it has been getting better though)

And most of the D’s we are facing also have a harder time defending the pass from under center… the Browns are allowing a passer rating of 67 from shotgun and a paltry 53% completion percentage… but from the passes from under center, that completion % jumps to 65% and a passer rating of over 97… despite that and despite us dropping back to pass something like 30+ times that game, only 4 of them were from under center… 1 incompletion to Harris. 1 completion wiped out by penalty on DJ, and 2 completions…

Cinci only allows a 55% completion percentage on under center passes, which is less than what they do in shotgun…. but a higher passer rating because they definitely give up bigger plays when they are completed. Their y/a jumps from 6.5 in shotgun, to 8.1 under center…

Again, shotgun isn’t the advantage it was even ten years ago.. defenses have adjusted, and now with the QB under Center, these defense guys aren’t as adept at diagnosing the play…

 

[Greg Lloyd]

Cinci only allows a 55% completion percentage on under center passes, which is less than what they do in shotgun…. but a higher passer rating because they definitely give up bigger plays when they are completed. Their y/a jumps from 6.5 in shotgun, to 8.1 under center…

Again, shotgun isn’t the advantage it was even ten years ago.. defenses have adjusted, and now with the QB under Center...

Very interesting; I've noticed shotgun seems more prevalent just because it's what QBs are used to out of college. Also, I've noticed rushing plays are often more productive with the QB under center. If it works better, USE IT!

 

[mdk2]

All I heard when Ben was the QB that we need to go under center and we need a mobile QB. So Ben leaves and it's exactly the same stuff. Ben at age 39 was still better than Pickett is now at extending a play and feeling pressure. Just goes to show, a mobile QB isn't everything. You need someone that can read a defense and make tough throws.

 

[madinsomniac]

All I heard when Ben was the QB that we need to go under center and we need a mobile QB. So Ben leaves and it's exactly the same stuff. Ben at age 39 was still better than Pickett is now at extending a play and feeling pressure. Just goes to show, a mobile QB isn't everything. You need someone that can read a defense and make tough throws.

Ben preferred the Shotgun and was excellent at it…his under center numbers were a little higher passer rating wise, but his completion percentage was a bit higher in shotgun…

still 28% of his passes were from under center … picketts are down to barely 14%… its way too slanted in shotgun, where he absolutely does not operate as well…

Mobility has nothing to do with it… its just play structure and how the D has to set up off of it

 

[slashsteel]

I meant to write this earlier, but the Canada news kind of waylaid things

So 20 years ago, the staple NFL play was run from under center. While some teams did use a high percentage of shotgun formations, most only used it to gain advantages on long distance passing plays. Defenses were usually built to handle under center plays first and foremost… so you saw lower passer ratings and completion percentages from under center and higher ones from the shotgun in passing stats..

Somewhere in the mid 2000’s it switched, and the shotgun became more prevalent than under center plays.

Defenses followed suit, and as they built themselves to thwart shotgun spread formations on a regular basis, the statistics flip flopped…

NFL coaching is often slow to recognize trends and adapt to them… and coaches and coordinators are loathe to abandon their preferred schemes, even when they are not productive enough anymore….

I say this because if you look at splits across the league, under center passes are typically more productive than shotgun now.. and Pickett’s passer rating, completion percentage and really everything is far better from under center than shotgun… by a lot

Like his passer rating in shotgun is 77 and his completion percentage is 59%
Under center, he has a passer rating of 93 and a completion percentage of 71%
Yet only 14% of his passes come from under center ( it has been getting better though)

And most of the D’s we are facing also have a harder time defending the pass from under center… the Browns are allowing a passer rating of 67 from shotgun and a paltry 53% completion percentage… but from the passes from under center, that completion % jumps to 65% and a passer rating of over 97… despite that and despite us dropping back to pass something like 30+ times that game, only 4 of them were from under center… 1 incompletion to Harris. 1 completion wiped out by penalty on DJ, and 2 completions…

Cinci only allows a 55% completion percentage on under center passes, which is less than what they do in shotgun…. but a higher passer rating because they definitely give up bigger plays when they are completed. Their y/a jumps from 6.5 in shotgun, to 8.1 under center…

Again, shotgun isn’t the advantage it was even ten years ago.. defenses have adjusted, and now with the QB under Center, these defense guys aren’t as adept at diagnosing the play…

Good stuff as always.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Very interesting; I've noticed shotgun seems more prevalent just because it's what QBs are used to out of college. Also, I've noticed rushing plays are often more productive with the QB under center. If it works better, USE IT!

In our case, imagine what a Bonafide “play action” will do.!!! If it’s set up and called properly, it will blow away the defense.

I think that things like this will come into play and we will see defenses actually have to defend us as a legitimate offense.



Salute the nation

 

[madinsomniac]

In our case, imagine what a Bonafide “play action” will do.!!! If it’s set up and called properly, it will blow away the defense.

I think that things like this will come into play and we will see defenses actually have to defend us as a legitimate offense.



Salute the nation

If i told you that Pickett’s splits using play action were outstanding, would you believe it? His passer rating is like 112 and completes like 72% of his passes… and thats play action under center or from shotgun.

We are getting better at actually running it, but right now we are still close to the bottom of the league in it.. of qbs with 250 passes, he has second fewest. we have only run 37. However through the first 4 weeks, we had single digits… i don’t remember how few, but it was insanely low.. so we are moving up…


Its been well chronicled the past few years by analysts better than I how underused play acion is in the modern game… despite still being extremely effective…

Current trends just don’t like it as much as they should…

 

[madinsomniac]

The other thing that is odd is Picketts absolutely highest split is the RPO. We almost never run it
We have a total of 17 this year, but he is completing over 82% of those passes with a 123.5 passer rating…

The final few years with Ben, we were a top 10 RPO team… (well we dropped to 11th in 2021)
Since the start of last year it basically dried up… and that was with mitch, not Kenny…

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Realizing that the playbook won't change this season, I'm hoping Sullivan and Faulkner will understand the nuance of tweaking what they have to work with.
Play-action, under center vs. shotgun, using the TE's, running slants, Harris and Warren on the field at the same time, etc.

Hoping the comments tomorrow are "finally" and not "oh gawd."

 

[slashsteel]

The other thing that is odd is Picketts absolutely highest split is the RPO. We almost never run it
We have a total of 17 this year, but he is completing over 82% of those passes with a 123.5 passer rating…

The final few years with Ben, we were a top 10 RPO team… (well we dropped to 11th in 2021)
Since the start of last year it basically dried up… and that was with mitch, not Kenny…

I would have never guessed it. But it makes sense. As he has had some really nice moments mixed in with some painful to watch moments. Times he is really accurate threading the needle, to not hitting the side of a barn. Just makes me think he is an inconsistent ball of clay still possibly moldable. As there is some good stuff there not just all garbage.

Love your research through this debate as you pointed out at different times good and bad.

 

[SteelerFan448]

This is the type of stuff you talk about when saying it's the coaches job to put the players in the best position to succeed.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Realizing that the playbook won't change this season, I'm hoping Sullivan and Faulkner will understand the nuance of tweaking what they have to work with.
Play-action, under center vs. shotgun, using the TE's, running slants, Harris and Warren on the field at the same time, etc.

Hoping the comments tomorrow are "finally" and not "oh gawd."

I hear what you are saying and thank you.


The comments I hear tomorrow, I want to end with a “W”


Salute the nation

 

[Djfan]

I absolutely do not trust any Tomlin coached team to notice this, or care if they are told about it.

 

[BLITZ]

good read TY! BTW I amthinking about buying some gummies from Australia. Anyone share a link?

 

[insaniti]

I absolutely do not trust any Tomlin coached team to notice this, or care if they are told about it.

It took 10 games into 2023 to fire one of this biggest reasons the offense has been struggling. To say Tomlin picks up on anything is a stretch. For instance, the chiefs have 16 TOTAL drives this year that are 3 and out, and that includes 4 in the eagles game. 49% of our drives end in 3 and out. After week 3 at the latest, some major changes should have been made about that.

 

[Greg Lloyd]

All I heard when Ben was the QB that we need to go under center and we need a mobile QB. So Ben leaves and it's exactly the same stuff. Ben at age 39 was still better than Pickett is now at extending a play and feeling pressure. Just goes to show, a mobile QB isn't everything. You need someone that can read a defense and make tough throws.

This is just so true I needed to comment instead of just giving it a "like." For those of you making comparisons of Kenny to Bradshaw, just stop: different era, different game, different players. It doesn't matter what TB did over 30 years ago, it's 2023. tHE MORE APPROPRIATE comparison is Big Ben, and there is no comparison. Ben looked off WRs all the time, and found 2nd and 3rd targets. Kenny does NONE of that.

 

[Djfan]

It took 10 games into 2023 to fire one of this biggest reasons the offense has been struggling. To say Tomlin picks up on anything is a stretch. For instance, the chiefs have 16 TOTAL drives this year that are 3 and out, and that includes 4 in the eagles game. 49% of our drives end in 3 and out. After week 3 at the latest, some major changes should have been made about that.

Leadership. If you're a Browns fan

 

[Djfan]

This is just so true I needed to comment instead of just giving it a "like." For those of you making comparisons of Kenny to Bradshaw, just stop: different era, different game, different players. It doesn't matter what TB did over 30 years ago, it's 2023. tHE MORE APPROPRIATE comparison is Big Ben, and there is no comparison. Ben looked off WRs all the time, and found 2nd and 3rd targets. Kenny does NONE of that.

Ben had a well coached team, and quality players. Tomlin teams just don't concern themselves with such trivialities.

 

[madinsomniac]

good read TY! BTW I amthinking about buying some gummies from Australia. Anyone share a link?

Probably not exactly what you are looking for but:

https://navafresh.com/products/fruittella-koalas-with-fruit-juice-gelatin-free100g?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiA04arBhAkEiwAuNOsIo1ZwcQlu3Ja9FL8sejZYPgg_YybOCvIxzsACcblN_epBfn2ePT4CxoCME0QAvD_BwE

 

[Sarge]

Ben had a well coached team, and quality players. Tomlin teams just don't concern themselves with such trivialities.

This team has quality players, but the well coached part certainly seems to be missing.

 

[madinsomniac]

This is just so true I needed to comment instead of just giving it a "like." For those of you making comparisons of Kenny to Bradshaw, just stop: different era, different game, different players. It doesn't matter what TB did over 30 years ago, it's 2023. tHE MORE APPROPRIATE comparison is Big Ben, and there is no comparison. Ben looked off WRs all the time, and found 2nd and 3rd targets. Kenny does NONE of that.

….Ben is one of the greatest QBs in nfl history… and for the first like 5 or 6 years of his career, media talking heads and message board nitwits bitched nonstop about him holding the ball too long, making bad reads, throwing balls he shouldn’t and for the first 4 he was perpetually called “just a game manager”… and this was a guy who set a rookie passer rating record and did nothing but win his first two seasons…
People wanted to trade him BEFORE the accusations about the vegas stuff came out…

This is just a sad fact of life: The starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a combination of all the best qualities of every great QB, and the first time he throws a pick, haters will come out of the woodwork to demand he be benched… its been happening as long as I have followed the team…

 

[insaniti]

This is just so true I needed to comment instead of just giving it a "like." For those of you making comparisons of Kenny to Bradshaw, just stop: different era, different game, different players. It doesn't matter what TB did over 30 years ago, it's 2023. tHE MORE APPROPRIATE comparison is Big Ben, and there is no comparison. Ben looked off WRs all the time, and found 2nd and 3rd targets. Kenny does NONE of that.

But to be fair, comparing Kenny to Ben isn't fair either. Early on Ben always looked for the home run play, held the ball a long time. It's just Ben was 6'5" 240lbs. He was big enough to absorb big hits and get out of sacks. Kenny is 6'3" 220lbs, even being more mobile, he just doesn't have the frame to do what Ben did.

Ken Whisenhunt was smart enough to realize his young QB needed help, we ran the ball a lot, and used A LOT of play action and gadget plays. Canada didn't help Kenny at all.

This is not to say that some of this isn't on Kenny himself, but they were put into two drastically different situations, therefore making the comparison a moot point as well. We'll see who they bring in next year, and if there is improvement, that's when I'll fully judge Kenny. Until then, it's still pretty unknown what we have in him... I do still think he's the best option on the roster right now tho.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

This is just a sad fact of life: The starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a combination of all the best qualities of every great QB, and the first time he throws a pick, haters will come out of the woodwork to demand he be benched… its been happening as long as I have followed the team…

Joe Gilliam says hi, Terry Hanratty says, hey, what about me!

This is just a sad fact of life: The starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a combination of all the best qualities of every great QB, and the first time he throws a pick, haters will come out of the woodwork to demand he be benched… its been happening as long as I have followed the team…

 

[Drink IRON City]

This is just so true I needed to comment instead of just giving it a "like." For those of you making comparisons of Kenny to Bradshaw, just stop: different era, different game, different players. It doesn't matter what TB did over 30 years ago, it's 2023. tHE MORE APPROPRIATE comparison is Big Ben, and there is no comparison. Ben looked off WRs all the time, and found 2nd and 3rd targets. Kenny does NONE of that.

Agree with your post other than Terry Bradshaw played 40 nyeaqrs ago, you’re getting old……..


Salute the nation