Kenny Pickett Year 2....EXPECTATIONS....

[Coach]

no one gives a **** about your opini0n

What you opinion of Kenny Pickett 2023 season? I want to laugh

 

[CoolieMan]

What you opinion of Kenny Pickett 2023 season? I want to laugh

I posted my thoughts already ********

 

[FordFairLane]

Oh boy.

A few predictions.

1. About 210 yards passing a game or less. Ie, he is a game manger who will need turnovers from the defense and a good running game to function well. He is 1-4 last year when throwing it 32 times or more. KP8 threw it very short most of the time. Easy passes. This inflated his completion % a bit, as did the amazing catches by his receiver Pickens. Red flag

2. He won't last the season without getting knocked out of games and will miss some games due to injury. He has two concussions less than a full season's worth of games. That is alarming for a young player as concussions tend to become easier when you get multiple of them in a short amount of time. He has a special helmet now to help prevent concussions, but the problem remains. That's not the problem, he plays football and was KO'd by light hits. Red flag

3. As a rookie he did not show the arm and lacked the velocity of the 5,6,7,and 8 routes. It's the arm, and it is sub par the standards of NFL starting quarterbacks. Red flag

4. A Qb rating under 85, which is not good these days.

But he was a rookie last year. Yeah -- I know rookies make mistakes and have a lot to learn at quarterback, but I find it alarming that the playbook was dumbed down that much, and alarming he did show me many " wow " moments that would suggest he is a top 14 QB. With the amount of college games played and his age, the conclusion is his " upside " is fuller than say a player who started about half as many college games and is a younger man.


I guarantee you some yinzers or blind homer fans willl compare his rookie year to past players who did not play as many games in college or players that played decades ago. The game has changed a bit since then.


But is he a smart QB, meaning his football IQ is good? I would say no, and point out his wonderlic score of 17 which is very low for a QB. Most modern QB's who score a 17 or less are lousy passers. You may find a QB with a great arm that scored low on the wonderlic from a player that played decades ago. The game changed. Some of those QB's had great arms. Okay, but Pickett does not have a great arm. He does not even have a good arm. Frankly the arm he has shown in the NFL is below average by the standard of NFL starting QB's.


In fact to my detractors and you know who you are, take this open challenge. Can you find me one nfl player who had Kp8's tiny 8.5 inch hands and scored a 17 or below on the wonderlic that amounted to being a good pro QB? I can not. I would not have drafted Pickett in round one, or round two. I think history will show we passed on better QB's.

You know this isn't an unfair analysis of Pickett. I would argue that "dumbing down" the playbook is pretty normal for rookie QB's. Whisenhunt dumbed down the playbook for Roethlisberger his rookie year and literally took away half of the field to "dumb down" his pre-read responsibilities and 2nd and 3rd options. That logic has actually been duplicated by many coordinators with young signal callers. The speed of the game is already a lot to adjust to along with the complicated defenses. So simplifying the playbook and taking away some of the responsibilities is not uncommon.

A 17 wonderlic score is a concern. I have made fun of Lamar Jackson and his 13 many of times. But Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw had a 16, Jim Kelly a 15, and Jeff Goerge a 10. So I agree it was a pre-draft concern. Obviously, the Steeler Brass thought it not to be an issue so hopefully they are right.

The problem people I think have with you Coach is that you almost want Pickett to fail. Ask anyone I did not like the pick. I have stated many times I would have went a different route. That said he is a Steeler and I will hope he progresses. Which you cannot argue that he did improve the last half of the season. And I don't see you mentioning his work ethic and drive to succeed. Those intangible qualities can't be underestimated. Now will he be the guy, I don't know. But I WILL give him 3 full seasons before I give a full assessment of his abilities. My 2023 realistic stat line is not a great line. But with his supporting cast a guy who can move some chains and throw more TDs than INTs has a shot at getting us to the playoffs. That would be a feather in his cap going into year three where I would expect a rather large improvement as he would have had time to get the speed of the NFL and learn presnap adjustments and have the ability to audible into the right playcall.

 

[SteelerFan448]

The problem people I think have with you Coach is that you almost want Pickett to fail. Ask anyone I did not like the pick. I have stated many times I would have went a different route. That said he is a Steeler and I will hope he progresses. Which you cannot argue that he did improve the last half of the season. And I don't see you mentioning his work ethic and drive to succeed. Those intangible qualities can't be underestimated. Now will he be the guy, I don't know. But I WILL give him 3 full seasons before I give a full assessment of his abilities. My 2023 realistic stat line is not a great line. But with his supporting cast a guy who can move some chains and throw more TDs than INTs has a shot at getting us to the playoffs. That would be a feather in his cap going into year three where I would expect a rather large improvement as he would have had time to get the speed of the NFL and learn presnap adjustments and have the ability to audible into the right playcall.

This is a good assessment. It's a combination of wanting to fail and giving no chance at success. I like Pickett, but also understood he had limitations entering the NFL. He isn't physically gifted like Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert, and he has a pretty big fault in pocket management. But as you pointed out, his work ethic is elite. Pickett wants to win and does what he can to improve. He's a football guy first and foremost. You can even hear in his interviews, he is focused and doesn't get rattled.

I just wish the Steelers had an offensive staff in place who knew how to develop a QB. Matt Canada isn't that guy and Tomlin's direction for the offense is shaky. Too many QBs have failed to produce in this scheme, so something has to change. However, this team has playoff talent. If Harris averages 4.5 YPC, the offense relies more on Freiermuth to exploit defenses over the middle, find ways to get Dionte in space so he can catch it on the run, and diversify Pickens route tree, the offense can evolve from a team that struggles to find the end zone to one that puts up over 20 points on a regular basis without us throwing bricks at the TV screen.

 

[slashsteel]

I can't take anyone serious that takes stock in wonderlic scores. This ship should have sailed for every fan by now. Nobody should be misguided in thinking you can't be a good QB with a low score. It is silly.

 

[madinsomniac]

I can't take anyone serious that takes stock in wonderlic scores. This ship should have sailed for every fan by now. Nobody should be misguided in thinking you can't be a good QB with a low score. It is silly.

Out of curiosity, I’ve taken some and I don’t understand how any of it relates to Football… there are far better ways to judge mental processing for a QB or any athlete really…

So many of the old school ways of measuring football ability are really flawed and its so traditional that they just can’t let them go.. 40 speed… not really all that important really.. most guys with speed to burn at a track meet can’t play that fast on a football field… most routes aren’t straight lines and good safety coverage can mitigate even tge fastest wrs… at most other positions it’s literally garbage… DBs and RBs are not usually using pure straight line speed… occasionally CBs may… but the game plays so fast its more angles and reaction speed …

 

[FordFairLane]

Out of curiosity, I’ve taken some and I don’t understand how any of it relates to Football… there are far better ways to judge mental processing for a QB or any athlete really…

So many of the old school ways of measuring football ability are really flawed and its so traditional that they just can’t let them go.. 40 speed… not really all that important really.. most guys with speed to burn at a track meet can’t play that fast on a football field… most routes aren’t straight lines and good safety coverage can mitigate even tge fastest wrs… at most other positions it’s literally garbage… DBs and RBs are not usually using pure straight line speed… occasionally CBs may… but the game plays so fast its more angles and reaction speed …

It might be a little antiquated, but you can't say it isn't valuable. It determines how quickly and accurately you understand information. I would say it shows how quickly a player can understand a playbook and assignments. But just because one could doesn't mean one will. Pickett is putting in the time, effort and work. To me that is invaluable. I would take an oz worth of motivation over a pound worth of intelligence. But if you are drafting a QB you probably take a guy with drive and smarts over a guy with only one.

 

[madinsomniac]

It might be a little antiquated, but you can't say it isn't valuable. It determines how quickly and accurately you understand information. I would say it shows how quickly a player can understand a playbook and assignments. But just because one could doesn't mean one will. Pickett is putting in the time, effort and work. To me that is invaluable. I would take an oz worth of motivation over a pound worth of intelligence. But if you are drafting a QB you probably take a guy with drive and smarts over a guy with only one.

Nah it doesn’t… take a few. It really has no correlation to what they try to sell it as… there are way better tests to judge visual comprehension and recall. The wonderlic doesn’t really correlate to anything and half the players just use the guestimate method tricks anyhow

 

[FordFairLane]

Nah it doesn’t… take a few. It really has no correlation to what they try to sell it as… there are way better tests to judge visual comprehension and recall. The wonderlic doesn’t really correlate to anything and half the players just use the guestimate method tricks anyhow

It's a glorified intelligence test with an emphasis on speed. You can't trick it. You can see a complicated question and use rational observations to narrow down the correct answer to a couple and move on. But you can't trick it.

Anyone can say any of the tests are irrelevant. To me they all create a picture of the player in as a whole. You might not like the 40 time but it is the litmus test of speed. I like that they have included the 10 yard split for those who might have quick feet but not long speed. I wish they would include a breakdown of 20 yard to 40 yard markers but haven't. NFL Network put their top MPH which is decent enough. I want to know that because long striders might have a relatively average or below average 40 but once they get going they have that 2nd gear to break away from defenders.

I honestly think the worst test of all is the bench press. a guy with 31 inch arms and a barrel chest is going to rock it. But a guy with 35 inch arms is going to have a harder time. Doesn't mean the T-rex guy is stronger or even strong at all. Just has the body for the test. But when a long armed guy breaks 30 I do take note. Meaning even that test is worth doing imo.

So again. Don't put any stock in the wonderlic. That is your prerogative. I will continue to take that into consideration when gauging a player cognitive ability.

 

[Steeltime]

20-0
394-402 (8 first-half spikes)
5,943 yards
43 TD's
0 interceptions

Anything else is unacceptable.

-Steeler Fans

 

[SteelerFan448]

So again. Don't put any stock in the wonderlic. That is your prerogative. I will continue to take that into consideration when gauging a player cognitive ability.

The NFL doesn't put any stock into the Wonderlic anymore either. They got rid of it and replaced it with the S2 test. I don't think there's been any statistical evidence between Wonderlic scores and NFL success either.

 

[ExUSAF]

Take the size 4 kiddy gloves off…

I expect KP to not suck this season

More than 200 yards a game
More than a 41.5 completion % in the RZ
More TDs than picks (at least 2:1)
More than a 9-8 record
More than zero playoff wins

I think those are baseline minimum expectations from him if he is indeed “the guy” and quite realistic for a first overall QB taken in a draft in his 2nd year starting

If he can’t make those basic goals plenty of GOOD QBs in next year’s draft

If he can't make those basic goals it isn't going to matter how many good QBs there are in the next 4 drafts because Tomlin and company never admit they drafted a dud. You have to be pretty bad not to have your 5th year option picked up.

 

[SanDiegoSteeler]

20-0
394-402 (8 first-half spikes)
5,943 yards
43 TD's
0 interceptions

Anything else is unacceptable.

-Steeler Fans

Damn right.
You have a problem with that?

The only thing I can't get in line with thinking that way is our government anymore.

 

[xjx]

What is Tomlins wonderlick score? How about Canada? Any guesses?

 

[topseed]

The NFL doesn't put any stock into the Wonderlic anymore either. They got rid of it and replaced it with the S2 test. I don't think there's been any statistical evidence between Wonderlic scores and NFL success either.

Vince Young?

 

[SteelerFan448]

If he can't make those basic goals it isn't going to matter how many good QBs there are in the next 4 drafts because Tomlin and company never admit they drafted a dud. You have to be pretty bad not to have your 5th year option picked up.

Such as Devin Bush?

 

[FordFairLane]

The NFL doesn't put any stock into the Wonderlic anymore either. They got rid of it and replaced it with the S2 test. I don't think there's been any statistical evidence between Wonderlic scores and NFL success either.

The wonderlic is a variation of an IQ test. The new S2 is also a variation of an IQ test. If anything I would put less stock in the new S2 test until a 5+ years of players have gone through it. It could be a better reflection of cognitive ability. Or much worse. Of course Anthony Richardson tested off the charts on this new test.

 

[Steelr4evr]

20-0
394-402 (8 first-half spikes)
5,943 yards
43 TD's
0 interceptions

Anything else is unacceptable.

-Steeler Fans

I expect that every single snap will come under scrutiny. It's just nuts.

I'm most concerned about the coaching and game plans. That's been the achilles heel of this team for a good long while now. No identity,soft play,a look at me attitude,not being up for every game and coming out flat.

The installing of things in offense and defense that do not work,then they're unwilling to change anything during the season.

That's the changes I'm looking for. The ability to adapt and change when something isn't working.

I'm really holding out hope they can become a really good running team again, that will make everything else that much easier and it gets them back to being a PHYSICAL FOOTBALL team again!

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Kurt Warner with a breakdown on KP. The summary. KP was mostly good, has upside, but Canada's offense sucks and gives the QB few good options.

 

[Sarge]

The problem is that a rookie QB's success is going to be measured by fans against guys like Mahomes and Burrow. There's a reason there is only one Patrick Mahomes. Those guys don't grow on trees.

 

[Punxsutawney]

The problem is that a rookie QB's success is going to be measured by fans against guys like Mahomes and Burrow. There's a reason there is only one Patrick Mahomes. Those guys don't grow on trees.

Mahomes only played one game as a rookie and Burrow's rookie year had ups and downs before the injury.

Justin Herbert is probably a better example.

The key take away from Pickett's rookie season was that there was clearly improvement as the games went on, which is ultimately what you want from a QB entering the league

The development of the first real running game the Steelers have had in years helped a lot, but the Steelers were also among the best teams on in the league at converting 3rd downs in the second half of the season.

That says something about the QB, especially a rookie.

 

[ExUSAF]

Such as Devin Bush?

Yep. And Jarvis and Artie Burns.

 

[Punxsutawney]

Kurt Warner with a breakdown on KP. The summary. KP was mostly good, has upside, but Canada's offense sucks and gives the QB few good options.

Warner did one or two other analyses of Pickett last season and there was some criticism of the play calling and design there as well.

It does kind of reinforce concerns about whether Pickett has the right coaching to realize whatever potential he has.

 

[bermudasteel]

I don't know about stats. Kenny was ranked 26th. If his ranking is 18 I'd say great effort.

If we play Tomlin small ball as expected, we will be playing from behind in 2nd half of games. Tomlin is afraid to throw. We likely lose games like that.

Yep here's that chyt...

Coach Canada calls the plays, son. Coach may recommend in certain situations but the play calling is on Matt.

Now, about Kenny's production...

I expect 24 TDs, 5 INTs, 5 rushing TDs, and 6 sacks on the year. Total passing yards - 2999.

 

[slashsteel]

The wonderlic is a variation of an IQ test. The new S2 is also a variation of an IQ test. If anything I would put less stock in the new S2 test until a 5+ years of players have gone through it. It could be a better reflection of cognitive ability. Or much worse. Of course Anthony Richardson tested off the charts on this new test.

I swear when you lock into your opinion it gets to ridiculous levels. Only two posters do that on this site. The NFL thinks nothing of the wonderlic and got rid of it. You can debate what you think of it until you turn blue. What is significantly more important is what the NFL thinks of it. They think of it as garbage just where they threw it in the dumpster.

I put more stock in what they think of it than your oddball opinions.