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Wild Card Pregame Report: Steelers at Chiefs

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What a difference 21 days makes. Back on December 26th, the Pittsburgh Steelers took an ugly beating in Arrowhead Stadium against the surging Kansas City Chiefs; the final score was 36-10. Steeler Nation saw a hurt, lethargic Steelers team struggle to hang with arguably the best team in the AFC and there was doubt we’d ever see the Steelers in the playoffs. Well, fast forward to today and here we are, sitting on the eve of a Wild Card rematch in Kansas City. As captains Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Heyward so eloquently stated earlier this week that they “aren’t a good team” and “probably shouldn’t be here,” the Steelers are taking on a different mentality than last year to move onto the next round in the tournament.

Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to on Sunday.



MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE


Offense: When they met last, the Steelers’ offense was missing a key contributor in Pat Freiermuth and his absence was missed. Roethlisberger was only able to manage 159 yards through the air on 35 attempts. The Chiefs did a great job of keeping Roethlisberger uncomfortable all game and sacked him twice. However, the Steelers’ rush game wasn’t ‘bad’ per-say. Najee Harris posted 93 yards on the ground and Benny Snell tacked on another 20 yards. All-in-all, they averaged 4.7 yards per carry, which is exactly what you want to see in a methodical offense. Therefore, the biggest matchup I’m watching on offense is the Steelers’ offensive line and Harris versus the Chiefs’ front seven. Rookie Kendrick Green played center back on Week 16 and we’ve since seen J.C. Hassenauer take over and has been effective in doing so. In their last two games, the Steelers’ offensive line has been great at winning the battle in the trenches and aided in a total of 273 rushing yards and allowed only three sacks. The game plan this week is similar to what we saw in Week 16; control the clock on offense, look to maintain methodical drives, and ultimately finish the game with possession of the ball. If they succeed in doing those things, there is a good chance they’ll win the game.






Defense: ‘Watt’ a relief it is that we’ll see T.J. Watt more for this game. In Week 16, he was limited and it showed in the overall defensive performance. In addition, Chris Wormley was absent and has since regained his role on the defensive line. However, Travis Kelce has also rejoined the team after missing Week 16 and is a major part in the Chiefs’ offensive attack. So, there are two things I am watching for this go-around. First, the Steelers’ defensive line has to control the gaps along the line of scrimmage. Heyward played more in the center of the line last time and was not as effective as when he lines up in his usual spot on the outside. I’m not worried so much about containing the Chiefs’ run, as the Steelers were able to do this previously (only allowed 3.6 yards per carry) and still lost by 26 points. They’ll need to contain Patrick Mahomes in the pocket and force him to make errant throws, which he has done frequently throughout this season. Second, the Steelers’ need to tackle on the first attempt. The Chiefs lead the league in yards after the catch (YAC) and the Steelers had troubles in Week 16 wrapping up on tackles. The Chiefs are going to throw the ball and complete passes; that’s just what they do. The Steelers need to be disciplined in their coverage, effective in swarming to the ball-carrier, and can’t bite on play-action plays and let Chiefs receivers get behind the secondary.






PREDICTION


Similar to what we expected in Week 16, this is going to be a tough game. When the playoffs were first set last Monday, the Steelers opened as 14.5 underdogs. Since then, the line has moved to 12.5 points. Call me optimistic or naïve, but I actually think the Steelers could win this game. I can’t give anymore reason than it being a gut-feeling, but I see them pulling this one out. Prediction, 24-23, Steelers.



FINAL THOUGHTS


Another week, another “final Roethlisberger (insert milestone here).” This week, it comes in the form of most passing yards in the playoffs. Right now, Roethlisberger sits at fifth all-time with 5,757 passing yards in the playoffs. With just 16 more yards, he’d pass Joe Montana to move to the fourth spot. With 99 yards, he’d pass Brett Favre for the third spot. But he’ll have some competition, as Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers sits at sixth place with 5,669 yards. One additional note to make going into this week is Roethlisberger has never lost to the same team twice on the road in the same season. If we think back to the magical 2005 season, the Steelers lost to the Indianapolis Colts, who they would eventually beat in the divisional round. In addition, they also lost to the Cincinnati Bengals at home in Week 13 of that same year and would beat them in the Wild Card round on the road. Steelers fans are very much aware of the magic that happens in the playoffs, and there is a lot of hope we’ll see it one last time with Roethlisberger at the helm.



What are you watching for on Sunday? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!

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