2023 Roster predictions Part 1
So before we get into specifics lets break down a five year history to get an idea of what we typically do. The next part will get more into specific players
*OFFENSE/DEFENSE SPLITS*------------------------
(First of all, every year we always keep 3 “pure ST position” guys, a K, a P and a LS. So the rest of the roster is based off of 50 available spots.)
Over the past 5 seasons, the offense and defensive spots going into the season have been split evenly 25 and 25. The two remaining seasons the defense started the season with 26 and the O with 24.
Last year we kept 25 offensive players and 25 defensive guys following the final cuts.
*OFFENSIVE SPOTS*-----------------------------------
-QB: This position is easy to predict. The past 5 seasons we have carried 3 QBs every single year.
Past 5 years average: 3
Highest: 3
Lowest: 3
Last year:3
2023 Prediction QB (3)
-RB/FB: This spot has both the regular RBs and the FB’s, but FB spot has religiously been a single back every season. The only fluctuations are in the number of RB’s. In 3 seasons, we kept 3. The other two we kept 4, however that came at the expense of keeping only 5 wrs
Past 5 years average: RB (3.4) FB (1)
Highest: RB (4) FB(1)
Lowest: RB (3) FB(1)
Last year: RB (3) FB (1)
2023 Prediction RB (3) FB (1)
-WR: This position carries the most variables on the Offense. Besides having guys to cover the ability to play all three wr spots, it also tends to accumulate KR and PR guys as well as the occasional ST gunner… also some TEs and RBs are basically wrs, so the roster can fluctuate wildly.
Past 5 years average: 5.6
Highest: 7
Lowest: 5
Last year: 7
2023 Prediction WR (6)
-TE: This is another fairly simple roster spot to figure out, 5 years and every year we kept 3 TEs. I guess there is a chance we say Heyward is a FB or RB then try to only keep two, but I don’t see that
Past 5 years average: 3
Highest: 3
Lowest: 3
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction TE (3)
-Total Oline: I am going to break down the individual spots below, but since certain players are transcendent here, I thought a general group of the oline would be useful too
Past 5 years average: 8.6
Highest: 9
Lowest: 8
Last year: 8
2023 Prediction Total Oline (C,G,OT) (8)
-C: many guards and centers are interchangeable, but we almost always have two dedicated C’s on the Roster
Past 5 years average: 2
Highest: 2
Lowest: 2
Last year: 2
2023 Prediction C (2)
-G: The third G is often a swing player, who can play both G positions as well as C or T, one year we kept two natural guards because we had an extra T who could play guard and a backup center capable of it too
Past 5 years average: 3.2
Highest: 4
Lowest: 2
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction G (3)
-OT: If we keep a 9th Olineman this year, it will probably be an extra Tackle… with a rookie LT, that could be a reality
Past 5 years average: 3.4
Highest: 4
Lowest: 3
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction OT (3)
*DEFENSIVE SPOTS*-----------------------------------
-DL: Look, Im not going to try to figure out how the steelers plan to use all these guys. Some of these guys are gonna line up all over, so trying to fit them into a technique or even a general label for whom is going to be a ¾ de type, a NT type or a more traditional DT seems complicated for this exercise right now. So its just one giant clump… for three years we kept 6 DL, but the last two we have kept 8 and 7 respectively… I think with the shear number of guys we have brought in this year we go with 7 initially
Past 5 years average: 6.6
Highest: 8
Lowest: 6
Last year: 7
2023 Prediction DL (7)
-OLB: Another rather simple position to fill out… we will have 4. One season in the past 5 we did carry 5, but injury concerns pushed that. We will have two starters, a backup, and a special teams guy who can play in a pinch
Past 5 years average: 4.2
Highest: 5
Lowest: 4
Last year: 4
2023 Prediction OLB (4)
-ILB: This spot is also tricky because of how we use it. … the traditional mike and Will designations also have kind of a hybrid safety mixed in. in some seasons we kept an extra ILB and shorted the safety position… kind of what they were hoping Bush would become… Tanner Muse fits that mold… in the past Marcus Allen was that “more safety than ilb” type….
Past 5 years average: 5
Highest: 6
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction ILB (5)
-DB: as with Oline, I both combined these then split them out below. In 4 of the past 5 years we kept 10 dbs. One season we only kept 8, and kept an extra lb and dl, but then almost immediately adjusted it after a couple guys went on IR before the first game.
Bare in mind, these projections can change on the fly. For instance I have Norwood penciled in as a slot guy… he is a safety… if, say, Dawson beats him out, that swings a spot from S to CB…
Past 5 years average: 9.6
Highest: 10
Lowest: 8
Last year: 10
2023 Prediction DB (10)
-CB: CB will usually have 5 guys but can have 6 or 4 depending if the teams slot players are listed as safety or not
Past 5 years average: 5.2
Highest: 6
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction CB (5)
-S: Much like CB, this position usually has 4 or 5 guys but it really depends on how the team lists guys positions… if the slot guys are listed as CB’s and there is a SS type ILB on the roster, they will carry 4… if not, they will have 5. Also Killebrew is listed as a S but is basically just a special teams ace…
Past 5 years average: 4.4
Highest: 5
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction S (5)
So before we get into specifics lets break down a five year history to get an idea of what we typically do. The next part will get more into specific players
*OFFENSE/DEFENSE SPLITS*------------------------
(First of all, every year we always keep 3 “pure ST position” guys, a K, a P and a LS. So the rest of the roster is based off of 50 available spots.)
Over the past 5 seasons, the offense and defensive spots going into the season have been split evenly 25 and 25. The two remaining seasons the defense started the season with 26 and the O with 24.
Last year we kept 25 offensive players and 25 defensive guys following the final cuts.
*OFFENSIVE SPOTS*-----------------------------------
-QB: This position is easy to predict. The past 5 seasons we have carried 3 QBs every single year.
Past 5 years average: 3
Highest: 3
Lowest: 3
Last year:3
2023 Prediction QB (3)
-RB/FB: This spot has both the regular RBs and the FB’s, but FB spot has religiously been a single back every season. The only fluctuations are in the number of RB’s. In 3 seasons, we kept 3. The other two we kept 4, however that came at the expense of keeping only 5 wrs
Past 5 years average: RB (3.4) FB (1)
Highest: RB (4) FB(1)
Lowest: RB (3) FB(1)
Last year: RB (3) FB (1)
2023 Prediction RB (3) FB (1)
-WR: This position carries the most variables on the Offense. Besides having guys to cover the ability to play all three wr spots, it also tends to accumulate KR and PR guys as well as the occasional ST gunner… also some TEs and RBs are basically wrs, so the roster can fluctuate wildly.
Past 5 years average: 5.6
Highest: 7
Lowest: 5
Last year: 7
2023 Prediction WR (6)
-TE: This is another fairly simple roster spot to figure out, 5 years and every year we kept 3 TEs. I guess there is a chance we say Heyward is a FB or RB then try to only keep two, but I don’t see that
Past 5 years average: 3
Highest: 3
Lowest: 3
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction TE (3)
-Total Oline: I am going to break down the individual spots below, but since certain players are transcendent here, I thought a general group of the oline would be useful too
Past 5 years average: 8.6
Highest: 9
Lowest: 8
Last year: 8
2023 Prediction Total Oline (C,G,OT) (8)
-C: many guards and centers are interchangeable, but we almost always have two dedicated C’s on the Roster
Past 5 years average: 2
Highest: 2
Lowest: 2
Last year: 2
2023 Prediction C (2)
-G: The third G is often a swing player, who can play both G positions as well as C or T, one year we kept two natural guards because we had an extra T who could play guard and a backup center capable of it too
Past 5 years average: 3.2
Highest: 4
Lowest: 2
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction G (3)
-OT: If we keep a 9th Olineman this year, it will probably be an extra Tackle… with a rookie LT, that could be a reality
Past 5 years average: 3.4
Highest: 4
Lowest: 3
Last year: 3
2023 Prediction OT (3)
*DEFENSIVE SPOTS*-----------------------------------
-DL: Look, Im not going to try to figure out how the steelers plan to use all these guys. Some of these guys are gonna line up all over, so trying to fit them into a technique or even a general label for whom is going to be a ¾ de type, a NT type or a more traditional DT seems complicated for this exercise right now. So its just one giant clump… for three years we kept 6 DL, but the last two we have kept 8 and 7 respectively… I think with the shear number of guys we have brought in this year we go with 7 initially
Past 5 years average: 6.6
Highest: 8
Lowest: 6
Last year: 7
2023 Prediction DL (7)
-OLB: Another rather simple position to fill out… we will have 4. One season in the past 5 we did carry 5, but injury concerns pushed that. We will have two starters, a backup, and a special teams guy who can play in a pinch
Past 5 years average: 4.2
Highest: 5
Lowest: 4
Last year: 4
2023 Prediction OLB (4)
-ILB: This spot is also tricky because of how we use it. … the traditional mike and Will designations also have kind of a hybrid safety mixed in. in some seasons we kept an extra ILB and shorted the safety position… kind of what they were hoping Bush would become… Tanner Muse fits that mold… in the past Marcus Allen was that “more safety than ilb” type….
Past 5 years average: 5
Highest: 6
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction ILB (5)
-DB: as with Oline, I both combined these then split them out below. In 4 of the past 5 years we kept 10 dbs. One season we only kept 8, and kept an extra lb and dl, but then almost immediately adjusted it after a couple guys went on IR before the first game.
Bare in mind, these projections can change on the fly. For instance I have Norwood penciled in as a slot guy… he is a safety… if, say, Dawson beats him out, that swings a spot from S to CB…
Past 5 years average: 9.6
Highest: 10
Lowest: 8
Last year: 10
2023 Prediction DB (10)
-CB: CB will usually have 5 guys but can have 6 or 4 depending if the teams slot players are listed as safety or not
Past 5 years average: 5.2
Highest: 6
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction CB (5)
-S: Much like CB, this position usually has 4 or 5 guys but it really depends on how the team lists guys positions… if the slot guys are listed as CB’s and there is a SS type ILB on the roster, they will carry 4… if not, they will have 5. Also Killebrew is listed as a S but is basically just a special teams ace…
Past 5 years average: 4.4
Highest: 5
Lowest: 4
Last year: 5
2023 Prediction S (5)
