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College Football Playoffs
Word is that some of these games had trouble selling out. It appears that the CFP is responsible for ticket sales and have greatly reduced student sections. Also, the CFP will be keeping the money from tickets. Schools will just get parking and concession money.
Penn State may not be completely sold out because hotels in the area are price gouging. There are stories of $2000 hotel rooms for miles around. PSU is in the middle of nowhere. Most fans travel from hours away and on a gameday, it will take hours in a traffic jam to get to the stadium so tack at least 90 minutes to your drive time. If you wanted to go from Philly or Pitt, you'd probably have to leave your house at 7 AM at the latest to make sure you get there in time.
Perhaps for the first time ever (i don't feel like researching it) Penn State and the Steelers will play on the same day. The college playoffs will go head to head with the NFL. Penn State vs SMU will be up against Texans-Chiefs and Clemson-Texas will be on against Steelers-Ravens. I'm guessing that's why these games are on TNT instead of FOX or ABC. Their NFL deals may not allow them to show a game against the NFL.
Penn State QB Drew Allar announced he's staying for 2025 and backup QB Beau Pribula entered the portal and will not be with the team for the playoffs. This means PSU only has 1 other QB available on the roster. The backup will be freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer who has zero game snaps. The 3rd stringer Jackson Smolik is recovering from injury and not cleared for games.
This is a portal issue. The portal closes by the end of December, which means Pribula really has no choice but to go in the portal and immediately try to enroll in a new school. A QB must be enrolled to be part of spring ball and have a chance to start.
James Franklin seemed upset about it at his press conference, the fact that nobody is really running the show for the NCAA so you have dumb rules like this.
Bye
1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Boise State
4 Arizona State
Friday 12/20
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame 8:00 ABC/ESPN ND -7 O/U 51.5
everyone is quick to say Indiana didn't play anybody. Their only tough game was Ohio State and they lost. Well, based on final ranking, Notre Dame only played 1 ranked team all year and that was Army who just got blown out by Navy. ND lost to Northern Illinois.
Notre Dame is as much an unknown as Indiana, maybe more because Indiana's coach Cignetti, who was AP Coach of the Year, is much more experienced than ND's Marcus Freeman.
Speaking of Freeman, ND gave him a huge contract extension. Seems awful soon to give him big money. Charlie Weiss burned them with some early success and they ended up paying him to go away.
Indiana was in that game vs Ohio State. They were likely going into the half tied 7-7, then their punter dropped the snap and was tackled inside the 10 giving Ohio State a short TD drive to go up 14-7 at half. Then first thing in the 3rd, Ohio State gets a 70 yard punt return TD to go up 21-7. Game was over after that.
This will be a very interesting game because both teams are still unknowns to a degree. USC was one of the few good passing teams ND played and they had a lot of success through the air. I can see this game anywhere from an Indiana win to ND by 20.
The winner will get 2 Georgia minus QB Carson Beck in the Sugar Bowl
Saturday 12/21
11 SMU at 6 Penn State 12:00 TNT/Max PSU -8.5 O/U 53.5
SMU is a team of mercenaries bought from the portal. They could be a sleeping giant in the NIL era because SMU has many alumni with oil money who are tired of listening to Texas fans brag. Texas is already the best recruiting territory. If they start spending oil money, they could dominate the weakened ACC.
Temp is supposed to be in the low 20s for kickoff. If Penn State can get up a few scores early, how will a bunch of frozen Texas mercenaries react?
SMU has a good statistical run defense but hasn't played any really good run teams. Oregon had a great statistical run defense as well and Penn State's OL dominated them and put up 297 yards rushing. SMU has a big DL but their LBs are small and fast. If the Penn State OL can block up to the 2nd level like they did vs Oregon, there could be big runs. If SMU can't slow down the Penn State run game, this game could get ugly for them.
Penn State will get pressure. SMU will need an answer for that. Oregon's answer was quick throws to Tez Walker.
SMU has some good WRs that can spread you out. Oregon had success with that, but they have a much higher talent level. SMU has good WRs but not a stud like Tez Walker. Walker had 181 yds receiving. Their next guy had 30. Gabriel is an experienced QB who makes few mistakes. SMU's QB Kevin Jennings is mobile but is also prone to mistakes while on the run.
Penn State's defense needs to stay disciplined and not give up big plays.
The winners gets 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
12 Clemson at 5 Texas 4:00 TNT/Max Tex -12 O/U 51.5
This is the first ever meeting of Clemson vs Texas, but it's not the first meeting for QBs Cade Klubnik and Quinn Ewers. They went against each other for the 2021 Texas 6A state championship with Klubnik coming out on top.
Clemson isn't very good. They would not have made the playoffs if they lost the ACC Championship game. That late FG knocked Bama out of the playoffs.
Clemson usually has one of the top defenses in the nation but not this year. They're OK but nowhere near elite. The Texas offense has struggled against good defenses. Clemson's defense has to play above their heads to keep the score down.
Texas's defense is elite. Loaded with NFL talent. I just don't see Clemson moving the ball very well. Their offense has lived on big plays but it's not very inventive. Texas gives up very few big plays.
Texas has their faults but I don't think Clemson is the team to exploit them. I can see this being a shutout.
The winner gets 4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State 8:00 ABC/ESPN OSU -7.5 O/U 46.5
rumors online is that Ohio State had slow ticket sales and Tenn fans are buying them up. They are saying they are going to take over the shoe. We'll see.
This game is probably seen by most as the best game of the first round with an even matchup. That may be true, but this game could also end up being really boring.
Tenn and Ohio State are pretty similar. Both are being carried by defense and running the ball, with a hit or miss passing game.
Ohio State was too conservative vs Michigan and it cost them. They've spent weeks studying it. Does that mean they come out passing vs Tenn? Somehow I doubt it. I don't think they trust Will Howard that much, or maybe it's the OL protecting Howard that they don't trust. I expect them to test out the run game first but will be quicker to go to the air if they are stagnant.
Tenn is in the same boat with QB Nico Iamasomething. If he's protected in the pocket, he can make all the throws but make him move and his accuracy goes in the toilet. Tenn will also try to establish the run.
This is why there's a version of this game that's super boring and ends something like 13-10. Both teams content to stay close and run the ball.
I do think Ohio State will hit some big plays to their future 1st round WRs. Ryan Day is on a hot seat now. If they lose this game like they lost to Michigan, meaning with the offense unable to score, he's going to have lots of problems. He may have to fire OC Chip Kelly as a scapegoat or Day himself could even get fired. I think they'll have some explosion plays drawn up and well practiced.
The other factor is Safety Caleb Downs. I have a feeling he makes some big plays in this one. He'd look good as a steeler.
Winner of this game gets 1 Oregon in the Rose Bow
Word is that some of these games had trouble selling out. It appears that the CFP is responsible for ticket sales and have greatly reduced student sections. Also, the CFP will be keeping the money from tickets. Schools will just get parking and concession money.
Penn State may not be completely sold out because hotels in the area are price gouging. There are stories of $2000 hotel rooms for miles around. PSU is in the middle of nowhere. Most fans travel from hours away and on a gameday, it will take hours in a traffic jam to get to the stadium so tack at least 90 minutes to your drive time. If you wanted to go from Philly or Pitt, you'd probably have to leave your house at 7 AM at the latest to make sure you get there in time.
Perhaps for the first time ever (i don't feel like researching it) Penn State and the Steelers will play on the same day. The college playoffs will go head to head with the NFL. Penn State vs SMU will be up against Texans-Chiefs and Clemson-Texas will be on against Steelers-Ravens. I'm guessing that's why these games are on TNT instead of FOX or ABC. Their NFL deals may not allow them to show a game against the NFL.
Penn State QB Drew Allar announced he's staying for 2025 and backup QB Beau Pribula entered the portal and will not be with the team for the playoffs. This means PSU only has 1 other QB available on the roster. The backup will be freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer who has zero game snaps. The 3rd stringer Jackson Smolik is recovering from injury and not cleared for games.
This is a portal issue. The portal closes by the end of December, which means Pribula really has no choice but to go in the portal and immediately try to enroll in a new school. A QB must be enrolled to be part of spring ball and have a chance to start.
James Franklin seemed upset about it at his press conference, the fact that nobody is really running the show for the NCAA so you have dumb rules like this.
Bye
1 Oregon
2 Georgia
3 Boise State
4 Arizona State
Friday 12/20
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame 8:00 ABC/ESPN ND -7 O/U 51.5
everyone is quick to say Indiana didn't play anybody. Their only tough game was Ohio State and they lost. Well, based on final ranking, Notre Dame only played 1 ranked team all year and that was Army who just got blown out by Navy. ND lost to Northern Illinois.
Notre Dame is as much an unknown as Indiana, maybe more because Indiana's coach Cignetti, who was AP Coach of the Year, is much more experienced than ND's Marcus Freeman.
Speaking of Freeman, ND gave him a huge contract extension. Seems awful soon to give him big money. Charlie Weiss burned them with some early success and they ended up paying him to go away.
Indiana was in that game vs Ohio State. They were likely going into the half tied 7-7, then their punter dropped the snap and was tackled inside the 10 giving Ohio State a short TD drive to go up 14-7 at half. Then first thing in the 3rd, Ohio State gets a 70 yard punt return TD to go up 21-7. Game was over after that.
This will be a very interesting game because both teams are still unknowns to a degree. USC was one of the few good passing teams ND played and they had a lot of success through the air. I can see this game anywhere from an Indiana win to ND by 20.
The winner will get 2 Georgia minus QB Carson Beck in the Sugar Bowl
Saturday 12/21
11 SMU at 6 Penn State 12:00 TNT/Max PSU -8.5 O/U 53.5
SMU is a team of mercenaries bought from the portal. They could be a sleeping giant in the NIL era because SMU has many alumni with oil money who are tired of listening to Texas fans brag. Texas is already the best recruiting territory. If they start spending oil money, they could dominate the weakened ACC.
Temp is supposed to be in the low 20s for kickoff. If Penn State can get up a few scores early, how will a bunch of frozen Texas mercenaries react?
SMU has a good statistical run defense but hasn't played any really good run teams. Oregon had a great statistical run defense as well and Penn State's OL dominated them and put up 297 yards rushing. SMU has a big DL but their LBs are small and fast. If the Penn State OL can block up to the 2nd level like they did vs Oregon, there could be big runs. If SMU can't slow down the Penn State run game, this game could get ugly for them.
Penn State will get pressure. SMU will need an answer for that. Oregon's answer was quick throws to Tez Walker.
SMU has some good WRs that can spread you out. Oregon had success with that, but they have a much higher talent level. SMU has good WRs but not a stud like Tez Walker. Walker had 181 yds receiving. Their next guy had 30. Gabriel is an experienced QB who makes few mistakes. SMU's QB Kevin Jennings is mobile but is also prone to mistakes while on the run.
Penn State's defense needs to stay disciplined and not give up big plays.
The winners gets 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
12 Clemson at 5 Texas 4:00 TNT/Max Tex -12 O/U 51.5
This is the first ever meeting of Clemson vs Texas, but it's not the first meeting for QBs Cade Klubnik and Quinn Ewers. They went against each other for the 2021 Texas 6A state championship with Klubnik coming out on top.
Clemson isn't very good. They would not have made the playoffs if they lost the ACC Championship game. That late FG knocked Bama out of the playoffs.
Clemson usually has one of the top defenses in the nation but not this year. They're OK but nowhere near elite. The Texas offense has struggled against good defenses. Clemson's defense has to play above their heads to keep the score down.
Texas's defense is elite. Loaded with NFL talent. I just don't see Clemson moving the ball very well. Their offense has lived on big plays but it's not very inventive. Texas gives up very few big plays.
Texas has their faults but I don't think Clemson is the team to exploit them. I can see this being a shutout.
The winner gets 4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State 8:00 ABC/ESPN OSU -7.5 O/U 46.5
rumors online is that Ohio State had slow ticket sales and Tenn fans are buying them up. They are saying they are going to take over the shoe. We'll see.
This game is probably seen by most as the best game of the first round with an even matchup. That may be true, but this game could also end up being really boring.
Tenn and Ohio State are pretty similar. Both are being carried by defense and running the ball, with a hit or miss passing game.
Ohio State was too conservative vs Michigan and it cost them. They've spent weeks studying it. Does that mean they come out passing vs Tenn? Somehow I doubt it. I don't think they trust Will Howard that much, or maybe it's the OL protecting Howard that they don't trust. I expect them to test out the run game first but will be quicker to go to the air if they are stagnant.
Tenn is in the same boat with QB Nico Iamasomething. If he's protected in the pocket, he can make all the throws but make him move and his accuracy goes in the toilet. Tenn will also try to establish the run.
This is why there's a version of this game that's super boring and ends something like 13-10. Both teams content to stay close and run the ball.
I do think Ohio State will hit some big plays to their future 1st round WRs. Ryan Day is on a hot seat now. If they lose this game like they lost to Michigan, meaning with the offense unable to score, he's going to have lots of problems. He may have to fire OC Chip Kelly as a scapegoat or Day himself could even get fired. I think they'll have some explosion plays drawn up and well practiced.
The other factor is Safety Caleb Downs. I have a feeling he makes some big plays in this one. He'd look good as a steeler.
Winner of this game gets 1 Oregon in the Rose Bow
