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Now we're getting to the part of the year when teams start playing better conference opponents. We'll start getting better info on teams.
Game of the Week
4 Penn State at 3 Iowa 4:00 FOX Iowa -1.5 O/U 41
Iowa's Kirk Ferentz is the best football coach in college. Without question. There are guys who win more with better recruiting, but nobody consistently wins games by coaching up 2 and 3 star prospects like Ferentz. That's coaching.
This is a must win for Iowa if they want a playoff berth. Iowa is the only ranked team in the Big 10 West and they don't play Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State. As of now, Penn State is the only ranked opponent on their schedule. If Iowa loses this game, they still have a shot if they win the Big 10 Championship but it wouldn't be a lock. With the Big 10 East pretty stacked, there's a good chance that a 1 loss B10 East team that does not play in the Champ game, could get selected ahead of Iowa.
Iowa has gotten a crazy number of turnovers. 16 in 5 games. They are using a defense that drops most guys in zone coverage, depending on their DL to stop the run. They don't allow big plays and force QBs to be patient. So far they have been able to stop the run with mostly DL only forcing teams to pass. With so many players in zone, it means RPO is less effective because they don't bite on the fakes. They play pass first and force throws into tight windows.
Penn State has struggled to run the ball. They are switching blocking schemes and it's been hit or miss so far. They did seem to use much of the last 2 games vs Villanova and Indiana as scrimmages to work on the run game. Will it finally start to click vs Iowa?
Clifford has been great this year. Playing with confidence and not turning the ball over. PSU has thrown mostly underneath stuff so their offensive plan has mostly been to stay patient and take what the defense gives.
Penn State has played some good defenses in Wisconsin and Auburn. Iowa hasn't faced a defense with anything close to the talent PSU has.
Iowa's QB Spencer Petras has been good when protected. When under pressure, he is terrible. Not surprisingly, Iowa wants to run the ball and set up easy play action passes.
The analytics people LOVE Iowa in this one. The numbers say that to beat Iowa, you have to run the ball to get them out of their base defense. Numbers say PSU stinks at running and that will mean Clifford throws INTs, just like each other Iowa opponent. That's possible.
But there's another possibility. Iowa hasn't had to deal with weapons like Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington, and the PSU TEs. Penn State does have the ability to spread the ball around to multiple skill players. Another factor is Clifford's mobility. He's not Lamar Jackson out there, but he does run when there's a lane.
This game really could go either way. I can see Iowa running the ball, chewing clock and PSU gets frustrated and forces some throws. IE what analytics expects. I can also see PSU doing a good enough job stopping the run that Iowa does have to throw more themselves and Petras throws some INTs.
One guy that could be a difference maker is the PSU Punter. He has been a real weapon. If it's an old school field position battle, he could actually be the difference.
6 Oklahoma vs 21 Texas 12:00 ABC Neutral Site at the Cotton Bowl Oklahoma -3.5 O/U 63.5
The Red River Shootout, although ESPN likes to call it the Red River Rivalry because they woke. Texas has been much better since they switched QBs. They are not the same team that lost to Arkansas. Oklahoma has struggled almost every week. Will it finally catch up to them?
13 Arkansas at 17 Ole Miss 12:00 ESPN Miss -5.5 O/U 66.5
Two programs who want to get over smackdowns last week vs Georgia and Alabama respectively.
2 Georgia at 18 Auburn 3:30 CBS Georgia -15 O/U 46.5
Will Auburn score? WIth an O/U of just 46.5 and a 15 point favorite, Vegas is saying they won't score much.
9 Michigan at Nebraska 7:30 ABC Mich -2.5 O/U 50
Another small line for Michigan. It tells you that the public is still not so sure about Michigan. One would think a top 10 undefeated team would be a bigger favorite vs an unranked 3 loss team. Nebraska's defense has been good. They only gave up 1 offensive TD vs Mich state and they were tough vs Oklahoma. Nebraska struggles on offense so Michigan still may not have to throw much to win.
Game of the Week
4 Penn State at 3 Iowa 4:00 FOX Iowa -1.5 O/U 41
Iowa's Kirk Ferentz is the best football coach in college. Without question. There are guys who win more with better recruiting, but nobody consistently wins games by coaching up 2 and 3 star prospects like Ferentz. That's coaching.
This is a must win for Iowa if they want a playoff berth. Iowa is the only ranked team in the Big 10 West and they don't play Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State. As of now, Penn State is the only ranked opponent on their schedule. If Iowa loses this game, they still have a shot if they win the Big 10 Championship but it wouldn't be a lock. With the Big 10 East pretty stacked, there's a good chance that a 1 loss B10 East team that does not play in the Champ game, could get selected ahead of Iowa.
Iowa has gotten a crazy number of turnovers. 16 in 5 games. They are using a defense that drops most guys in zone coverage, depending on their DL to stop the run. They don't allow big plays and force QBs to be patient. So far they have been able to stop the run with mostly DL only forcing teams to pass. With so many players in zone, it means RPO is less effective because they don't bite on the fakes. They play pass first and force throws into tight windows.
Penn State has struggled to run the ball. They are switching blocking schemes and it's been hit or miss so far. They did seem to use much of the last 2 games vs Villanova and Indiana as scrimmages to work on the run game. Will it finally start to click vs Iowa?
Clifford has been great this year. Playing with confidence and not turning the ball over. PSU has thrown mostly underneath stuff so their offensive plan has mostly been to stay patient and take what the defense gives.
Penn State has played some good defenses in Wisconsin and Auburn. Iowa hasn't faced a defense with anything close to the talent PSU has.
Iowa's QB Spencer Petras has been good when protected. When under pressure, he is terrible. Not surprisingly, Iowa wants to run the ball and set up easy play action passes.
The analytics people LOVE Iowa in this one. The numbers say that to beat Iowa, you have to run the ball to get them out of their base defense. Numbers say PSU stinks at running and that will mean Clifford throws INTs, just like each other Iowa opponent. That's possible.
But there's another possibility. Iowa hasn't had to deal with weapons like Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington, and the PSU TEs. Penn State does have the ability to spread the ball around to multiple skill players. Another factor is Clifford's mobility. He's not Lamar Jackson out there, but he does run when there's a lane.
This game really could go either way. I can see Iowa running the ball, chewing clock and PSU gets frustrated and forces some throws. IE what analytics expects. I can also see PSU doing a good enough job stopping the run that Iowa does have to throw more themselves and Petras throws some INTs.
One guy that could be a difference maker is the PSU Punter. He has been a real weapon. If it's an old school field position battle, he could actually be the difference.
6 Oklahoma vs 21 Texas 12:00 ABC Neutral Site at the Cotton Bowl Oklahoma -3.5 O/U 63.5
The Red River Shootout, although ESPN likes to call it the Red River Rivalry because they woke. Texas has been much better since they switched QBs. They are not the same team that lost to Arkansas. Oklahoma has struggled almost every week. Will it finally catch up to them?
13 Arkansas at 17 Ole Miss 12:00 ESPN Miss -5.5 O/U 66.5
Two programs who want to get over smackdowns last week vs Georgia and Alabama respectively.
2 Georgia at 18 Auburn 3:30 CBS Georgia -15 O/U 46.5
Will Auburn score? WIth an O/U of just 46.5 and a 15 point favorite, Vegas is saying they won't score much.
9 Michigan at Nebraska 7:30 ABC Mich -2.5 O/U 50
Another small line for Michigan. It tells you that the public is still not so sure about Michigan. One would think a top 10 undefeated team would be a bigger favorite vs an unranked 3 loss team. Nebraska's defense has been good. They only gave up 1 offensive TD vs Mich state and they were tough vs Oklahoma. Nebraska struggles on offense so Michigan still may not have to throw much to win.
